Recruiting Football Talk VIII

#55,452
#55,452
Was looking at some advanced stats yesterday...specifically predicted points added. As a foundation, predicted (AKA expected) points assigns each yard line a point value & basically models the players expected point contribution. Then to measure player performance, it grades the outcome of each play & the net difference before/after. So QBs/WRs get graded on passing plays, RBs on rushing plays or passes to them, etc.

Here is all QBs with >50 plays.
SCR-20241015-klew-2.png

Nico pretty much middle of the pack so far. Not bad for a freshman behind the OL with a few issues thus far. Not nearly bottom (or top) of the pack. Lots of room to grow & we all know he's capable.

Usage of about 0.40, which makes sense as we are a 60/40 run/pass split. PPA/play is just under 0.3, which is about the national average.

I'm looking forward to see just how great he can be once we get everything clicking
 
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#55,455
#55,455
Similarly for RBs...both Sampson & Bishop are standouts in SEC play. Sampson only trails a few RBs nationally. Jeanty is a crazy outlier here

SEC only w/ 35+ plays (to qualify Bishop)
SCR-20241015-konp.png

National w/ 50+ plays:
SCR-20241015-klso.png
 
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#55,456
#55,456
TheRain said:


Click to expand...

I was in real estate a while back. We had this man come in wearing crazy looking rings and a wild looking necklace, like a redneck hippy.

I was showing him some property in Gatlinburg and started asking about the crazy jewelry to break the ice.

He was a gem trader, had a different name for it but cant remember what he called it. He traded only "lightning ridge opal". He was carrying 2-3 big opals on him in his pockets. Craziest looking colors you can imagine.

Reminds me of gollum now, like he had some sort of opal addiction. He kept saying, "look at this one. See the fire in it?" or "Look at the way this one fires up in the light."

He had a storage cabinet in the back of his SUV filled with them. I thought they were just some knock off type of opal like you could buy at The Thrifty Center.

It was before smartphones, so I didn't look them up til later that evening. Turns out those opals were worth thousands each. The really big ones were like $8-$10k. I bet the dude had $500-$600k in the back of his SUV. He was wearing probably $30k in jewelry. You'd never know it, unless you knew what those stones were.

I guess people that do that work ride around with a lot of valuable gems on them. Still, this guy seemed over the top, like he was hoarding them instead of trading/selling them.

Anyway, I've always wanted a nice Lightning Ridge Opal ever since.
 
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#55,457
#55,457
WR room is interesting. Thornton has crazy value add, but Mike Matthews does too. Both are far too low in usage rate.

Bru/Squirrel/Brazzell all pretty middle of the pack

Nimrod's performance brought down by a few of those drops

National w/
SCR-20241015-klyb.png
It's a little hard to see, but Thornton is on that right edge of the pack, with only 0.02 usage rate & ~2.1 PPA/play.

SEC only w/ 1 catch, just to grade as many of our WR room as possible
SCR-20241015-kmuu.png
Matthews (just under 2 PPA/play) is the only other WR above 1 PPA/play.

Obviously the volume of routine passes vs bombs impacts the numbers, but that's just a part of the discussion...how can we get those guys more usage & how to bring up the PPA/play for some of the guys with higher usage...
 
#55,460
#55,460
2025 NFL mock draft article ESPN

5. Tennessee Titans (1-4)
James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee*

Here's another team that could address quarterback, as the jury is still out on Will Levis. Let's put a pin in that for now; it's only October. Instead, I'm looking at the defense, where the Titans need pass rushers. They are one of seven teams with fewer than 10 sacks (nine). Pearce is a scheme-versatile defender who can play standing up at outside linebacker or with his hand down in the dirt at defensive end. And while he has managed just two sacks, his pressure rate (17.6%) ranks fourth in the nation. Scouts will be watching Pearce closely the rest of the way, starting this Saturday against Alabama.

Team needs: Edge, OT, QB
 
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