Recruiting Football Talk VIII

#132,201
#132,201
Orangeburst said:
It really is too early to speculate, but hypothetically, would you rather have a #1 seed and bad location or #2 seed and good location? Obviously brackets are more important, but just wondering.

I wonder where games are this year.
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I think if Vols get #1 seed Lexington would be their destination for 1st and 2nd round games...
 
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#132,202
#132,202
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#132,203
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#132,205
#132,205
I think the South or Midwest brackets both would be pretty good to land in....the only one I'd not want to see as a 1 seed is West.

So a 1 seed anywhere but West would be preferred but if it came down to being the 1 seed out west OR a 2 seed in the South or Midwest I'd probably be fine with the 2 just cause I think fans would travel better for those locations than San Francisco.


Also:

South = Atlanta
Midwest = Indianapolis
East = Newark
West = San Franciso

That's where they play the Sweet 16 & Elite Eight...

1st & 2nd rounds are pretty all over the place but they try to put the 1 seed in a regional location for them.

Like if Florida is the 1 seed in the West the first round they'd play Raleigh instead of Seattle
 
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#132,206
#132,206
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#132,211
#132,211
Vols should be in Raleigh or Lexington for the first 2 rounds regardless. But if we are a 1 seed I think we'd get stuck with San Francisco. Auburn will take Atlanta, Florida will take Newark or Indianapolis, Duke will take the other, and we will be odd man out.

Honestly I'd rather be San Francisco than Newark as a fan. San Francisco is way cooler.
 
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#132,212
#132,212
VolsnCards5 said:
What is the other big factor that I have seen several times? Top something in both defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency. Is it top 25? I can’t remember
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here are some cliff notes on this:
Trends for Predicting the Champion

Top 20 in AdjO & AdjD: Almost every champion since 2002 fits this profile.

AdjEM above +20: Nearly every Final Four team meets this threshold.

Elite Defense Wins Titles: No team outside the Top 40 in AdjD has won since 2002.
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Some notable teams. We need our offense efficiency higher to be considered a stronger contender statistically. We are close.

As of February 24, 2025, the following NCAA men's basketball teams excel in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD), positioning themselves as strong contenders for the NCAA tournament:

1. Duke Blue Devils

AdjO: 128.5 (2nd nationally)

AdjD: 90.4 (4th nationally)

Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM): +38.13



2. Auburn Tigers

AdjO: 129.8 (1st)

AdjD: 93.8 (11th)

AdjEM: +35.91



3. Houston Cougars

AdjO: 125.0 (7th)

AdjD: 89.9 (3rd)

AdjEM: +35.16



4. Florida Gators

AdjO: 127.1 (4th)

AdjD: 92.9 (7th)

AdjEM: +34.15



5. Tennessee Volunteers

AdjO: 119.1 (29th)

AdjD: 87.6 (1st)

AdjEM: +31.55



6. Iowa State Cyclones

AdjO: 120.2 (21st)

AdjD: 93.5 (9th)

AdjEM: +26.78



7. Michigan State Spartans

AdjO: 119.9 (23rd)

AdjD: 93.8 (12th)

AdjEM: +26.03



8. Saint Mary's Gaels

AdjO: 117.6 (39th)

AdjD: 93.4 (8th)

AdjEM: +24.25



9. Arizona Wildcats

AdjO: 120.7 (19th)

AdjD: 95.0 (18th)

AdjEM: +25.67



10. Maryland Terrapins

AdjO: 120.8 (17th)

AdjD: 95.7 (20th)

AdjEM: +25.13




These teams demonstrate a balance of high offensive output and strong defensive performance, aligning with historical trends of NCAA champions. Notably, the Tennessee Volunteers excel defensively, ranking 1st in AdjD, but their offensive efficiency is slightly outside the Top 20. Historically, teams ranking within the Top 20 in both AdjO and AdjD have had higher success rates in the tournament.

*Note: Rankings and statistics are based on data available up to February 24, 2025.*
 
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#132,213
#132,213
SoilVol said:
Vols should be in Raleigh or Lexington for the first 2 rounds regardless. But if we are a 1 seed I think we'd get stuck with San Francisco. Auburn will take Atlanta, Florida will take Newark or Indianapolis, Duke will take the other, and we will be odd man out.

Honestly I'd rather be San Francisco than Newark as a fan. San Francisco is way cooler.
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I am hoping Florida drops a couple more and we don't lose again... Much rather Auburn, Houston and Duke be the other 1 seeds... they'll likely put Houston in the West bracket and then Duke in Newark would be my guess if that happens. Leaving us in the Midwest and Auburn in the South.

I'm not sure a specific region gets the "number 1 overall" 1 seed or if they try to favor geography.
 
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#132,215
#132,215
SoilVol said:
Vols should be in Raleigh or Lexington for the first 2 rounds regardless. But if we are a 1 seed I think we'd get stuck with San Francisco. Auburn will take Atlanta, Florida will take Newark or Indianapolis, Duke will take the other, and we will be odd man out.

Honestly I'd rather be San Francisco than Newark as a fan. San Francisco is way cooler.
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IF by chance Vols get a #1 spot most likely go to San Francisco for Regional. No way in hell Duke doesn't get bracketed for the Newark Regional...
 
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#132,217
#132,217
We're 29th in Kenpom for offensive rating at 119.1...but the gap between us and 16 (Clemson) is pretty small... they're rating is 120.9

If we have a few more high 70s or 80s scoring nights shooting like we did at A&M or vs Vandy we could find ourselves in the top 20 by tournament time.

all your top 10 are 124+ in offensive rating, but then starting at 16th everyone is 120 or 119. So plenty of shuffling can still happen.

On the flip side we're 1st in defensive rating at 87.6 3rd is Houston at 89.9... so the gap on that side is far bigger


And one thing that doesn't seem to be pointed out is that we're doing that against opponents with an offensive rating of 116 (4th best in the country).
 
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#132,220
#132,220
SoilVol said:
Vols should be in Raleigh or Lexington for the first 2 rounds regardless. But if we are a 1 seed I think we'd get stuck with San Francisco. Auburn will take Atlanta, Florida will take Newark or Indianapolis, Duke will take the other, and we will be odd man out.

Honestly I'd rather be San Francisco than Newark as a fan. San Francisco is way cooler.
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whatever gets us to Atlanta
 
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#132,223
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