Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#54,929
#54,929
GoVolsDR said:
One of the best things about the offshore sites are that you can look for arbitrage - Not all sites are going to consistently have the same odds. I use VegasInsiders and OddsShark to keep an eye on the markets. I did see on VI that the game opened around a touchdown and the line immediately got bet down to 4-5 points. Bovada opened at 4, and now it's at 5 points. A lot of this you have to infer by keeping an eye on all of the books, but it looks like the Vegas line opened up way to high, and the market repriced it at 4-5 points. That range is where you seem to have the consensus at this point in time, with the exception of BetOnline where the line got back up to +6 for Tennessee, and now it back down to +5.5. That's an example of reverse line movement. It will be really interesting to see if resistance holds at +6 - If so that tells you that the sharps (and their models) see a lot of value of Tennessee in that spot.
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Resistance! Talking like a true charter/technician :) Do you market?
 
#54,931
#54,931
Devo182 said:
Resistance! Talking like a true charter/technician :) Do you market?
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In my downtime I'm a swing trader - equities, crypto, precious metals, commodities. Technical analysis and trading strategies are very much applicable to sports betting markets. I'm riding out this SPX wild bullrun, but I've been hedging with precious metals and crypto as the market keeps making higher highs. I don't mind missing out on delta to ensure that I'm not overexposed and there's upside potential for the inevitable market correction.
 
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#54,933
#54,933
GoVolsDR said:
In my downtime I'm a swing trader - equities, crypto, precious metals, commodities. Technical analysis and trading strategies are very much applicable to sports betting markets. I'm riding out this SPX wild bullrun, but I've been hedging with precious metals and crypto as the market keeps making higher highs. I don't mind missing out on delta to ensure that I'm not overexposed and there's upside potential for the inevitable market correction.
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I am just glad you're not a trade swinger. Or, if you are one, I am glad that you are not sharing those experiences with the rest of us.
 
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#54,936
#54,936
Devo182 said:
At what point does an offer mean much when our staff has given out nearly 500? Not all of them can be "high on our board". Hate to think it, but the beginning to the season really affected this class imo.
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I don't think we know that, yet. I am sure it has had some impact, but how much, is still to be determined.
 
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#54,940
#54,940
GoVolsDR said:
In my downtime I'm a swing trader - equities, crypto, precious metals, commodities. Technical analysis and trading strategies are very much applicable to sports betting markets. I'm riding out this SPX wild bullrun, but I've been hedging with precious metals and crypto as the market keeps making higher highs. I don't mind missing out on delta to ensure that I'm not overexposed and there's upside potential for the inevitable market correction.
Click to expand...
Still feel a little bad for all the folks that sat out the past 7 years buying into the QE-to-infinity inflated market fears. At the same time, it's hard to ignore the Schiller PE being so historically high. Maybe just a new era of acceptable valuation, but it does give me steady and constant attention to my hedges as well.
 
#54,948
#54,948
Devo182 said:
Still feel a little bad for all the folks that sat out the past 7 years buying into the QE-to-infinity inflated market fears. At the same time, it's hard to ignore the Schiller PE being so historically high. Maybe just a new era of acceptable valuation, but it does give me steady and constant attention to my hedges as well.
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You had historic buying opportunities in 2008. Investors and traders will see similar opportunities during the next correction, a correction following the longest extended bull run in history. Central banks are buying gold over bonds at nearly a 2:1 ratio. Major market movers are converting to cash, Warren Buffet for example. The rising wedge pattern you see on the SPX daily chart can't keep rising ad infinitiun. You'll notice that each candlestick touch of resistance had a catalyst of the federal reserve cutting interest rates. Given the breakout after the last federal reserve meeting, I am not really concerned about downside in the short term, due to consumer sentiment. You'll see pullback and accumulation before reaching more ATHs. When consumer sentiment dries up like in 2008, that's when to start worrying. Some might argue we're already in a recession when you lot at slowing expenditures on non-essentials like sporting goods and restaurants, among others. On a longer time scale, there will be blood in the streets. Price is always a lagging indicator.
 
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