Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

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#194,805
#194,805
Vols4us said:
Since the Pitt game seems to be a key in a 6-6 season or better, my TL;dr overview...

Pitt was 5-5 in the ACC and got blown out by the best two teams - Clemson and ND. UT was 3-7 in the SEC and got blown out by the best teams as well - just more best teams in the SEC than in the ACC. So a 5-5 ACC team is probably the equivalent of a 3-7 SEC team.

UT changed its coaching staff. Pitt did not. So expect Pitt to do more of what they were already doing, just trying to it better. Pitt was #58 at 29 PPG Scoring and Total O was #79 at 380 YPG. They were #20 in Total D at 339 YPG and #37 at 25 PPG for Scoring D.

UT's stats are not particularly relevant due to the coaching and scheme changes. FWIW Total D was #65 and Scoring D was #69. So we have to look at the UCF O to gain insight. They were #8 in Scoring O and #2 in Total O. So it comes down to how well the O scheme and uptempo system are adapted as the D is likely to remain about the same and give up 30 PPG.

I give no consideration for returning starters, incoming signees, etc. for either team. If you go by recruiting class talent ratings Pitt is not nearly as talented coming out of HS. They gain by having consistency and knowing expectations with the current staff.

My take is the uptempo, wide open balanced attack O scheme will cause Pitt's D some problems, especially with their depth. We have experienced talent on the O and the QB competition should strongly improve the performance at that position. So, I am seeing a 35 PPG average performance for the season, partially because of our weaker schedule that includes Pitt. If the D stays at 30 PPG average and Pitt stays near to their scoring average of 2020 - all of it tells me we should win by a TD.

But the Vol fan in me says we boat race them.
Click to expand...
I do believe they lost some solid defensive talent.
 
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#194,813
#194,813
We ain't losing to Pitt.

No Gump to over complicate the defense. Banks will have them flying around making plays not thinking about cornbread's quadratic positioning equations.

No Gump to continually play the wrong guy at QB.

No Chaney predictable play calling.

No bagman coaching linebackers.


Snap and clear VN! WGWTFA!
 
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#194,818
#194,818
Vitello has built a program (quickly) that is winning and rolling in the best conference in baseball, and has a Top 3 pitching coach in the country, and has top recruits just begging to play here.

If he gets top contracts for himself and his staff, and gets a new stadium and facilities... the only reason he would want to leave is: A) go to a historic collegiate program B) go to the pros C) go to alma mater D) his boss sucks. I really don't see B, C or D as realities. I don't see him going to a historic program that's slumping right now where he has to rebuild again.

If Arkansas's coach was going to retire or DW was refusing to finance stadium and facility upgrades and new contracts then I'd be concerned. I think he's bought in and gonna stay.
 
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#194,820
#194,820
Vols4us said:
Since the Pitt game seems to be a key in a 6-6 season or better, my TL;dr overview...

Pitt was 5-5 in the ACC and got blown out by the best two teams - Clemson and ND. UT was 3-7 in the SEC and got blown out by the best teams as well - just more best teams in the SEC than in the ACC. So a 5-5 ACC team is probably the equivalent of a 3-7 SEC team.

UT changed its coaching staff. Pitt did not. So expect Pitt to do more of what they were already doing, just trying to it better. Pitt was #58 at 29 PPG Scoring and Total O was #79 at 380 YPG. They were #20 in Total D at 339 YPG and #37 at 25 PPG for Scoring D.

UT's stats are not particularly relevant due to the coaching and scheme changes. FWIW Total D was #65 and Scoring D was #69. So we have to look at the UCF O to gain insight. They were #8 in Scoring O and #2 in Total O. So it comes down to how well the O scheme and uptempo system are adapted as the D is likely to remain about the same and give up 30 PPG.

I give no consideration for returning starters, incoming signees, etc. for either team. If you go by recruiting class talent ratings Pitt is not nearly as talented coming out of HS. They gain by having consistency and knowing expectations with the current staff.

My take is the uptempo, wide open balanced attack O scheme will cause Pitt's D some problems, especially with their depth. We have experienced talent on the O and the QB competition should strongly improve the performance at that position. So, I am seeing a 35 PPG average performance for the season, partially because of our weaker schedule that includes Pitt. If the D stays at 30 PPG average and Pitt stays near to their scoring average of 2020 - all of it tells me we should win by a TD.

But the Vol fan in me says we boat race them.
Click to expand...

People keep saying Pitt may be the most important game all year (not sure where that comes from, doesn't even affect our conference record...).

But Narduzzi is still coaching at Pitt, which means they are more likely to be an anomaly with an outcome that isn't predictive of the future (I think we win by 7-10 btw). Their defensive philosophy is EXTREME and we won't see that again for the rest of the year. Whether we perform great or terribly, don't think it will tell us much about what is to come.
 
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#194,821
#194,821
Christian Lowe said:
That’s an average of 3.6 wins per season. We won 3. So by that logic, we should be a team they beat by 24 too
Click to expand...

Teams Pitt beat last year with final records.
Opponent Result Opp. Record
Austin PeayW 55-0 4 - 5
Syracuse W 21-10 1 - 10
Louisville W 23-20 4 - 7
@ Florida St. W 41-17 3 - 6
Virginia Tech W 47-14 5 - 6
@ Georgia Tech W 34-20 3 - 7
 
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#194,822
#194,822
Sphynx said:
Teams Pitt beat last year with final records.
Opponent Result Opp. Record
Austin PeayW 55-0 4 - 5
Syracuse W 21-10 1 - 10
Louisville W 23-20 4 - 7
@ Florida St. W 41-17 3 - 6
Virginia Tech W 47-14 5 - 6
@ Georgia Tech W 34-20 3 - 7
Click to expand...
All bias aside, some of those offensive outputs are pretty impressive tbh.

They also lost to NC St and BC by 1 point each. They were close to a really nice season. Granted ND and Clemson still blasted them, of course.

But darn it if I just can't bring myself to respect them 😄 ACC is a god awful, nearly G5 league. I still like us to win, but obviously no sure thing.

I'll go with us as 2:1 favorites. That's about 6 pt favorites.
 
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#194,823
#194,823
Devo182 said:
All bias aside, some of those offensive outputs are pretty impressive tbh.

They also lost to NC St and BC by 1 point each. They were close to a really nice season. Granted ND and Clemson still blasted them, of course.

But darn it if I just can't bring myself to respect them 😄 ACC is a god awful, nearly G5 league. I still like us to win, but obviously no sure thing.

I'll go with us as 2:1 favorites. That's about 6 pt favorites.
Click to expand...
I think our Vols win by 13 or more. I will give Pitt this. Their home uniforms are some of the best in college football.
 
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