So basically the end game here is that the SEC absorbs all 4 other conferences and then we have a new NCAA with Greg Sankey in charge. Weird.
I suspect this is the sports version of my “CNBC Hypothesis.” Every time something happens like “oil reaches a yearly high!,” it immediately has a string of people talking about how high it can possibly go, like “it could go to $100 a barrel!” You could make an entire investment strategy of doing the opposite of the CNBC headlines.
I think that’s what’s happening now. Credible sources and other ancillary info pointing to Texas and OU joining the SEC. Now we are seeing talking heads and anonymous sources running with “what if” headlines for clicks and likes.
My hunch is that if that if a school isn’t in loose footprint of the south, and isn’t in the top 15 list of most valuable football programs, then it isn’t happening.
I can see a valuable reason for the SEC to break the NCAA -> the headaches that come along with uneven NCAA investigations and rule changes. It’s an organization that is getting a lot of money that is wildly inconsistent at calling balls and strikes. From COVID rules to targeting to stunting the growth of programs like Ole Miss and Missouri that were improving before getting popped with NCAA violations.
What if the NCAA tries to effectively cancel a season again like last year? What if they are even more uneven in determining where the line between a student making money off their likeness versus a recruiting violation? What if they threaten one of the major cash cow programs by retroactively deciding something is a violation because their NIL guidance is nonexistent?
I think the SEC sees the writing on the wall. They are the biggest kid on the block that is tired of paying part of their lunch money to the bully who can’t beat them up anymore. And just to make sure, they went and added a couple more big dudes to their gang. They don’t need to add anymore to accomplish the mission of telling the bully to kick rocks.