Hendon Hooker’s path to the Heisman -
I wanted to compare how various ratings looked for QBs, in particular, how different published ratings assessed Hooker’s performance last year on a game by game basis.
Rocky Top Insider posted a lot of PFF grades for each of our games last year and the season ending grades. They did that for players who played 30%+ snaps. Since I’ve yet to convince myself to give PFF any money for their service I used RTI as my source for PFF grades.
PFF produces grades on a play by play basis and there’s some heartburn with some folks about their process and the qualification of those doing the grading. It is what it is.
ESPN QBR evaluates much more than just a QB’s passing. It includes rushing, fumbles, sacks, and a proprietary method of calculating the EPA the QB adds above that of an average QB. ESPN QBR also adjusts for strength of the opponent so after the first I think 4 weeks, prior weekly QBR numbers adjust to what has been revealed as the strength of opponents.
The NCAA passer rating is just that. It doesn’t factor in any other aspect of QB play. I used CFBstats for this source but to ESPN’s credit they publish this rating alongside their QBR for the QB and even put it in the column before QBR.
Hooker was sacked 39 times last year and coughed up 5 fumbles. Those in particular would impact both his QBR rating and his PFF grade. They obviously wouldn’t show up in the NCAA passer rating and neither would his rushing yards.
So here is a comparison of Hooker’s graded performance from last year from the above noted sources.
Note: QBR & PFF are on a 0-100 scale.
I don’t have historical PFF grades but I did compare ESPN QBR for some familiar QBs in selected years to the NCAA passer rating for those QBs in those years. I included where the QB ranked nationally with each rating for that year.
I think Hooker is a really good kid. I think he has a tremendous family and their influence on him is apparent. Based on reports he is an exceptional leader and has an exemplary work ethic. I think with normal progression Hendon is minimum a top 10 QB in QBR this year and maybe top 5. Here’s the thing. Heisman voters historically tend to vote based on wins and volume stats. How many yards did he pass for and how many games did he win.
Last year we ran more on inferior defenses and passed more on stronger defenses. Bryce Young had 4,000 passing yards going into the SEC championship game, with a lower passer rating than Hooker. This year Hooker should have 12 full games instead of 10.5. That should help a lot. I think both Tillman and McCoy are likely NFL receivers and we should also be strong in the slot. We need to do a better job up front and at RB protecting him which will reduce the number of sacks and fumbles. We also may need to at least get to Atlanta which to me is not all that farfetched. Just getting to Atlanta I think gets him invited to New York. Win in Atlanta and he’s probably bringing home the trophy. jmo.