Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

[triadvolfan]

It’s a line of scrimmage league –

Part 2 – Defensive Line

In 2018 Football Outsiders ranked our defensive line #104 in the nation and our rushing defense ranked #55 in yards allowed per rushing attempt. In 2019, our DLine ranking moved up to #95 and our run defense moved up to #30 in yards allowed per rushing attempt. In 2020 our DL moved up to #45 and held at #30 for yards allowed per rushing attempt. Last year with a scheme change our DL fell to #88 but we only slid to #36 in yards allowed per rushing attempt. In fact the yards we gave up per rushing attempt in 2019 (3.70), 2020 (3.68), and 2021 (3.71) are the only 3 years since 2008 that we’ve limited opponents to less than 4.00 yards per rushing attempt.

The only losses on our DL from last year are Butler and Tremblay.

These are the pff season grades for our DL last year (including # of plays graded):

Butler (664 plays) 75.8
Young (399 plays) 75.6
Simmons (157 plays) 75.3
Terry (251 plays) 74.0
Baron (395 plays) 69.7
Bumphus (142 plays) 68.1
Thomas (301 plays) 66.5
Harrison (335 plays) 63.0
Tremblay (399 plays) 61.2

We obviously return a lot of guys on the DL from last year and I expect with CRG they will continue to improve. Young was mostly a rookie last year but he’s garnered some preseason all-sec accolades already coming into his 2nd year with us. Additionally, we have some new young talented reinforcements now on campus to further strengthen this group. I think most people think the DL will be our strongest position group on that side of the ball this year, and with good reason. jmo.

Latrell Bumphus is the player I think may surprise this year. Out of high school he was projected to be a WDE by the services and rated a 4-star by ESPN & Rivals. CRG only had positive things to say about him during the spring. Butch put him at TE (where he excelled in HS) when he first got to campus in 2017 and Pruitt left him there in 2018 but moved him to the DL in 2019 and 2020. He had a knee injury in late 2020 but has been steadily coming back. He started against Alabama last year. In any event I think his athleticism and maturity could be a huge advantage as he continues to progress as a DT on our line. I think Bumphus is about 0.4 seconds faster than the average DT and that’s one of the assets he brings to the interior of our DL. jmo.

This is my thinking on our defensive front for this year. First, as has been said, football is a developmental game and for most I think the idea is that kids need to play in order to developed. Last year, similar to Bumphus, we had other guys that were learning on the job, including Byron Young. That’s going to pay off this year but the position group where we may (hopefully) get the most payoff is at linebacker.

There are things that you can only learn by playing the position, instincts and anticipation, quickly reading your keys, recognizing personnel and formations, etc. For most of the season last year we only had 3 linebackers. Mitchell got hurt and that left Banks, Beasley, and Page. This year we’ve got a few more bodies but maybe more importantly Banks (a converted RB) and Beasley (a converted Safety) have a lot of snaps under their belts from last year. Banks had 659 snaps graded last year and Beasley had 685 snaps graded by PFF.

Their grades weren’t anything to write home about but probably somewhere between 80-90% of the snaps each has played in their entire football careers at linebacker happened last year and against some of the very best offenses in the nation. The offenses for the 6 games we lost were OM (6), UA (7), Pitt (8), UF (15), UGA (25), and Purdue (33). We beat every team we played with an offense ranked below Purdue.

Banks & Beasley were our two leading tacklers and while it’s important to qualify that by noting that NFL scouts don’t care how many tackles a kid makes but where on the field he makes them, it’s my contention that experience most often leads to improvement, both physically and mentally. I think last year we were just playing aggressively because maybe that’s the best we could do. This year we have the opportunity owing to our experience to play smarter, especially at the point of attack. If we can do this we can maybe reduce our yards allowed per rushing attempt by somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.6 yards per attempt. That would give our rushing defense a shot at being in the top 10 in the nation. jmo.

Good summary. Not sure if the grades bear this out but it seemed to me like Banks got a lot better as the season wore on last year. I could see him continuing to progress this year.

 

[Orange_Crush]

The last minute or so, they were basically calling about 2/3 of you guys delusional for your BVS the past week or so.

UT is in great shape compared to where they were a year ago. We lost out on two VERY high recruits. That's the recruiting business.

Unsaid, but I will say it. Put on your big boy/girl pants or just tune out for a while and ask us for the cliff notes on how we ended up with the class we get, whatever class we end up getting.

 

[BigSteve09]

Does anybody know right off how our overall talent stacks up in the SEC and Country ? Sometimes talent doesn't add up to wins.

from Steele, who I trust more than most:

Tennessee unit rankings:
QBs - 9
RBs - 41
WRs - 17
OL - 25
DL - 21
LBs - 40
DBs - 44
ST - 10

It is rare to have every unit ranked. I think this is the first time we've done that in his mags since 2016.

Phil's Power Ratings (I am listing all SEC teams, all teams over 120, and all of our FBS opponents):
Alabama 140.71
Ohio St 139.74
Georgia 139.01
Clemson 133.90
Michigan 133.70
Notre Dame 132.20
Utah 129.79
Oklahoma 129.21
Texas A&M 128.23
Wisconsin 127.81
Oregon 127.55
Oklahoma St 126.84
Penn St 126.68
Mich St 126.27
Baylor 126.27
Pittsburgh 126.03
Texas 125.88
Miami 125.69
Ole Miss 125.35
NC State 125.24
Tennessee 125.04
Arkansas 124.71
Cincinnati 124.48
Kentucky 124.22
Iowa 123.45
USC 123.42
Wake Forest 123.19
BYU 123.11
UCLA 122.76
LSU 122.68
Auburn 121.78
Purdue 121.45
Miss St 121.34
Kansas St 121.41
Minnesota 121.07
Nebraska 121
UCF 120.60
Florida St 120.52
Iowa St 120.34
Florida 118.95
South Carolina 116.66
Missouri 112.62
Vanderbilt 101.28
Ball St 96.65
Akron 91.01

His Power Poll, which is considers his rankings of strength of the team:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Michigan
ND
Utah
TAMU
Pitt
Miami
Tennessee
Wisconsin
BYU
NCSU
Oklahoma
Oregon
Iowa
Penn St
Auburn
Miss St
Texas
Okla St
Baylor
Louisville
Kansas St

His Top 40, which is where he projects teams to finish:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Mich
Utah
ND
Okla
TAMU
Oregon
Pitt
Miami
NCSU
Baylor
Okla St
USC
UCF
Texas
Wisc
Iowa
UAB
PSU
Mich St
Wake Forest
Cincy
BYU
Tennessee
UCLA
Air Force
Ole Miss
Boise
Florida
Louisville
Houston
UK
Arky
Minn
KSU
App St
Fresno

 

[orange parmejohn]

from Steele, who I trust more than most:

Tennessee unit rankings:
QBs - 9
RBs - 41
WRs - 17
OL - 25
DL - 21
LBs - 40
DBs - 44
ST - 10

It is rare to have every unit ranked. I think this is the first time we've done that in his mags since 2016.

Phil's Power Ratings (I am listing all SEC teams, all teams over 120, and all of our FBS opponents):
Alabama 140.71
Ohio St 139.74
Georgia 139.01
Clemson 133.90
Michigan 133.70
Notre Dame 132.20
Utah 129.79
Oklahoma 129.21
Texas A&M 128.23
Wisconsin 127.81
Oregon 127.55
Oklahoma St 126.84
Penn St 126.68
Mich St 126.27
Baylor 126.27
Pittsburgh 126.03
Texas 125.88
Miami 125.69
Ole Miss 125.35
NC State 125.24
Tennessee 125.04
Arkansas 124.71
Cincinnati 124.48
Kentucky 124.22
Iowa 123.45
USC 123.42
Wake Forest 123.19
BYU 123.11
UCLA 122.76
LSU 122.68
Auburn 121.78
Purdue 121.45
Miss St 121.34
Kansas St 121.41
Minnesota 121.07
Nebraska 121
UCF 120.60
Florida St 120.52
Iowa St 120.34
Florida 118.95
South Carolina 116.66
Missouri 112.62
Vanderbilt 101.28
Ball St 96.65
Akron 91.01

His Power Poll, which is considers his rankings of strength of the team:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Michigan
ND
Utah
TAMU
Pitt
Miami
Tennessee
Wisconsin
BYU
NCSU
Oklahoma
Oregon
Iowa
Penn St
Auburn
Miss St
Texas
Okla St
Baylor
Louisville
Kansas St

His Top 40, which is where he projects teams to finish:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Mich
Utah
ND
Okla
TAMU
Oregon
Pitt
Miami
NCSU
Baylor
Okla St
USC
UCF
Texas
Wisc
Iowa
UAB
PSU
Mich St
Wake Forest
Cincy
BYU
Tennessee
UCLA
Air Force
Ole Miss
Boise
Florida
Louisville
Houston
UK
Arky
Minn
KSU
App St
Fresno

He has a lot of faith in Pitt. Not sure I buy it.

 

[Vols4us]

We were screwed by officials in 3 losses that were highly contested last season. Open, obvious cheating that was determinant in the final outcomes of those games. Even with that we won 7 games in the first year of development in a new system with the previous failed coach's players.

Start there and analyze the roster accordingly. Second year in the system with a cohesive, competent coaching staff that has introduced new talent that better fit the system. Ignore the silly media hounds seeking attention. If we take care of our own business we don't need to be concerned with anything else. That's how programs get better, not by always comparing themselves to everybody else.

It's the way we saw Barnes and Voltello do it. They are now in the national conversation every season and projected to be in the future. Heup is doing it that way. He will handle it. Just support Spyre and the program and enjoy your summer.

 

[BigSteve09]

He has a lot of faith in Pitt. Not sure I buy it.

Here's his reasoning:

Offense - Even with 8 starters back they will take a step back this year and running the football will become more of a priority.

Defense - Despite losing DL to the NFL, Narduzzi does a great job developing them and they have Phil's #2 rated DL in the country.

More on the DL: Last year they lost a 1st Team All American DE and a 2nd Team All American DE, yet they improved on their numbers, allowing just 89 rush ypg and 54 sacks. This year their only loss is DT K Camp. 1st Team All-ACC DT C Kancey (7 sacks, 6 TFL last yr) leads their DL. They have excellent depth with 5 DL who combined for 26 sacks. DL Coach Partridge does a great job with this unit as they remain strong despite losing their best guys to the league each year.

Overall: This year they lose QB Pickett but replace him with USC's Slovis and will have a strong run game. They have 15 returning starters and have a great shot at winning their division again. Phil's data call for them to get to double digit wins again.

Players to know for Pitt (bold indicates 1st Team All -ACC):
OT Carter Warren
OG Marcus Minor
RB Israel Abanikanda
WR Konata Mumpfield

DE Habakkuk Baldonado
DE Deslin Alexandre
DT Calijah Kancey
LB SirVocea Dennis
S Brandon Hill
S Erick Hallett

 

[Voltime123]

Here's his reasoning:

Offense - Even with 8 starters back they will take a step back this year and running the football will become more of a priority.

Defense - Despite losing DL to the NFL, Narduzzi does a great job developing them and they have Phil's #2 rated DL in the country.

More on the DL: Last year they lost a 1st Team All American DE and a 2nd Team All American DE, yet they improved on their numbers, allowing just 89 rush ypg and 54 sacks. This year their only loss is DT K Camp. 1st Team All-ACC DT C Kancey (7 sacks, 6 TFL last yr) leads their DL. They have excellent depth with 5 DL who combined for 26 sacks. DL Coach Partridge does a great job with this unit as they remain strong despite losing their best guys to the league each year.

Overall: This year they lose QB Pickett but replace him with USC's Slovis and will have a strong run game. They have 15 returning starters and have a great shot at winning their division again. Phil's data call for them to get to double digit wins again.

They lost their best WR and QB…unless they have a Josh Heupel type offense which they don’t, I don’t care how good their defense is they will take a step back because of that

 

[BigSteve09]

They lost their best WR and QB…unless they have a Josh Heupel type offense which they don’t, I don’t care how good their defense is they will take a step back because of that

I agree. Most teams that lose their two best players, should take a step back. Yet he's all in.

 

[TitanicVolz]

They lost their best WR and QB…unless they have a Josh Heupel type offense which they don’t, I don’t care how good their defense is they will take a step back because of that

Ehhh debatable I'm sure folks were screaming the same thing about us with a new coach qbs etc...We were a couple bad calls away from shocking the sh*t outta folks u just never know in football.

 

[MemphisVol3]

They lost their best WR and QB…unless they have a Josh Heupel type offense which they don’t, I don’t care how good their defense is they will take a step back because of that

Yeah think that's why they'll lean more on the run game. Yeah, they likely won't have a high scoring offense but may focus more on a ball control/solid defense style of play. People also forget they just hired a new Offensive Coordinator as well.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

Here's his reasoning:

Offense - Even with 8 starters back they will take a step back this year and running the football will become more of a priority.

Defense - Despite losing DL to the NFL, Narduzzi does a great job developing them and they have Phil's #2 rated DL in the country.

More on the DL: Last year they lost a 1st Team All American DE and a 2nd Team All American DE, yet they improved on their numbers, allowing just 89 rush ypg and 54 sacks. This year their only loss is DT K Camp. 1st Team All-ACC DT C Kancey (7 sacks, 6 TFL last yr) leads their DL. They have excellent depth with 5 DL who combined for 26 sacks. DL Coach Partridge does a great job with this unit as they remain strong despite losing their best guys to the league each year.

Overall: This year they lose QB Pickett but replace him with USC's Slovis and will have a strong run game. They have 15 returning starters and have a great shot at winning their division again. Phil's data call for them to get to double digit wins again.

Players to know for Pitt (bold indicates 1st Team All -ACC):
OT Carter Warren
OG Marcus Minor
RB Israel Abanikanda
WR Konata Mumpfield

DE Habakkuk Baldonado
DE Deslin Alexandre
DT Calijah Kancey
LB SirVocea Dennis
S Brandon Hill
S Erick Hallett

That does not at all explain them being ranked 11th.

Losing their OC Whipple, Pickett, Addison and their TE is practically their whole offense. They were pretty bad at running the ball. Slovis isn't mobile, Mumpfield is their best receiver, but he's coming from Akron. They had generational talent last year. I'll be shocked if they are THAT good this year.

 

[butchna]

Ehhh debatable I'm sure folks were screaming the same thing about us with a new coach qbs etc...We were a couple bad calls away from shocking the sh*t outta folks u just never know in football.

Cept we went from inept to elite in that department along with a (major) upgrade in offensive scheme and playcalling. That same dynamic going on at Pitt? I see they lost a FIRST ROUND QB vs us “losing” JG.

 

[BigSteve09]

That does not at all explain them being ranked 9th.

Losing their OC Whipple, Pickett, Addison and their TE is practically their whole offense. They were pretty bad at running the ball. Slovis isn't mobile, Mumpfield is their best receiver, but he's coming from Akron. They had generational talent last year. I'll be shocked if they are THAT good this year.

Hey man, I don't know. Sometimes I laugh and shake my head when I read things in Steele's mags too. But as long as I've been buying the mag, he's been the most accurate on the whole, I would say.

Just speaking facts, he has the most accurate preseason magazine over the last 27 years, based on predictions (vs Athlon, Lindy's, ESPN, Pick Six, Sporting News, and like 10 other pubs). Sometimes I hate the predictions (especially when he fades us), but I do have to give him respect (and money) because he's right a lot.

 

[TitanicVolz]

Cept we went from inept to elite in that department along with a (major) upgrade in offensive scheme and playcalling. That same dynamic going on at Pitt? I see they lost a FIRST ROUND QB vs us “losing” JG.

Agree little bit different circumstances I reckon

 

[BigSteve09]

The only preseason preview media that I like more than Steele is Pick Six Previews, which has been SHARP over the last 5 or so years. I've really enjoyed them. I'll post some stuff from them when I get it.

 

[TitanicVolz]

 

[TitanicVolz]

Space makes u realize were so insignificant in the grand scheme of things

 

[drvenner]

from Steele, who I trust more than most:

Tennessee unit rankings:
QBs - 9
RBs - 41
WRs - 17
OL - 25
DL - 21
LBs - 40
DBs - 44
ST - 10

It is rare to have every unit ranked. I think this is the first time we've done that in his mags since 2016.

Phil's Power Ratings (I am listing all SEC teams, all teams over 120, and all of our FBS opponents):
Alabama 140.71
Ohio St 139.74
Georgia 139.01
Clemson 133.90
Michigan 133.70
Notre Dame 132.20
Utah 129.79
Oklahoma 129.21
Texas A&M 128.23
Wisconsin 127.81
Oregon 127.55
Oklahoma St 126.84
Penn St 126.68
Mich St 126.27
Baylor 126.27
Pittsburgh 126.03
Texas 125.88
Miami 125.69
Ole Miss 125.35
NC State 125.24
Tennessee 125.04
Arkansas 124.71
Cincinnati 124.48
Kentucky 124.22
Iowa 123.45
USC 123.42
Wake Forest 123.19
BYU 123.11
UCLA 122.76
LSU 122.68
Auburn 121.78
Purdue 121.45
Miss St 121.34
Kansas St 121.41
Minnesota 121.07
Nebraska 121
UCF 120.60
Florida St 120.52
Iowa St 120.34
Florida 118.95
South Carolina 116.66
Missouri 112.62
Vanderbilt 101.28
Ball St 96.65
Akron 91.01

His Power Poll, which is considers his rankings of strength of the team:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Michigan
ND
Utah
TAMU
Pitt
Miami
Tennessee
Wisconsin
BYU
NCSU
Oklahoma
Oregon
Iowa
Penn St
Auburn
Miss St
Texas
Okla St
Baylor
Louisville
Kansas St

His Top 40, which is where he projects teams to finish:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Mich
Utah
ND
Okla
TAMU
Oregon
Pitt
Miami
NCSU
Baylor
Okla St
USC
UCF
Texas
Wisc
Iowa
UAB
PSU
Mich St
Wake Forest
Cincy
BYU
Tennessee
UCLA
Air Force
Ole Miss
Boise
Florida
Louisville
Houston
UK
Arky
Minn
KSU
App St
Fresno

Just curious why he likes Pitt so much. Are there other analysts who have them as high?

Edit: NVM asked and answered.

 

[peaygolf]

from Steele, who I trust more than most:

Tennessee unit rankings:
QBs - 9
RBs - 41
WRs - 17
OL - 25
DL - 21
LBs - 40
DBs - 44
ST - 10

It is rare to have every unit ranked. I think this is the first time we've done that in his mags since 2016.

Phil's Power Ratings (I am listing all SEC teams, all teams over 120, and all of our FBS opponents):
Alabama 140.71
Ohio St 139.74
Georgia 139.01
Clemson 133.90
Michigan 133.70
Notre Dame 132.20
Utah 129.79
Oklahoma 129.21
Texas A&M 128.23
Wisconsin 127.81
Oregon 127.55
Oklahoma St 126.84
Penn St 126.68
Mich St 126.27
Baylor 126.27
Pittsburgh 126.03
Texas 125.88
Miami 125.69
Ole Miss 125.35
NC State 125.24
Tennessee 125.04
Arkansas 124.71
Cincinnati 124.48
Kentucky 124.22
Iowa 123.45
USC 123.42
Wake Forest 123.19
BYU 123.11
UCLA 122.76
LSU 122.68
Auburn 121.78
Purdue 121.45
Miss St 121.34
Kansas St 121.41
Minnesota 121.07
Nebraska 121
UCF 120.60
Florida St 120.52
Iowa St 120.34
Florida 118.95
South Carolina 116.66
Missouri 112.62
Vanderbilt 101.28
Ball St 96.65
Akron 91.01

His Power Poll, which is considers his rankings of strength of the team:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Michigan
ND
Utah
TAMU
Pitt
Miami
Tennessee
Wisconsin
BYU
NCSU
Oklahoma
Oregon
Iowa
Penn St
Auburn
Miss St
Texas
Okla St
Baylor
Louisville
Kansas St

His Top 40, which is where he projects teams to finish:
Alabama
Ohio St
UGA
Clemson
Mich
Utah
ND
Okla
TAMU
Oregon
Pitt
Miami
NCSU
Baylor
Okla St
USC
UCF
Texas
Wisc
Iowa
UAB
PSU
Mich St
Wake Forest
Cincy
BYU
Tennessee
UCLA
Air Force
Ole Miss
Boise
Florida
Louisville
Houston
UK
Arky
Minn
KSU
App St
Fresno

Good info!

 

[bluegrasser]

View attachment 466279

Just wanted to keep this post appearing every now and then to help dispel the rampant rumor mongering that has infested this forum the last few days…

 

[BigSteve09]

Just curious why he likes Pitt so much. Are there other analysts who have them as high?

Edit: NVM asked and answered.

More from Phil:

Back in March they were #1 with a bullet for me as they always have a great defense under Narduzzi. They brought in Kedon Slovis to the team with Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison at WR and a solid set of RBs. Then May 1st rolled around and Addison hit the portal and landed at USC. I talked to Narduzzi after that happened, going over the team with him and basically it is "next man up" as you would expect for a solid head coach. Pitt went 6-0 away from home last year, so they are capable of handling the road tests at Louisville and Miami. Last year they were +123 ypg in ACC play and beat Wake Forest 45-21 for the ACC Title. They get Tennessee at home and if they get to the ACC title game they will be confident that they can win as they knocked off Clemson last year.

Last year they won 10 games for the first time since Dan Marino in 1981. QB Slovis will step right in and thrive and Pitt always has a top notch defense. They do play Miami and Louisville on the road but are one of my top surprise teams this year as they look to repeat as ACC Champs.

The defending ACC Champs lose QB Kenny Pickett and OC Mark Whipple from a team that was number 1 in the ACC at +123 ypg. They add in Slovis at QB from USC to team with a good RB and a rock solid defense. The loss of WR Addison hurts but they still have a solid WR corps and all 5 starting OL return.

In those numbers that I posted from Phil earlier he has us 125.xx and Pitt 126.xx which is basically to say that we are equal in talent. He has them ranked higher in his other rankings, and picked to finish high in the final polls (possibly with 10+ wins and a division title again) because they play in a wacky division in an easier conference. 4 of the 6 teams that they face in their division will have new coaches.

So, in the context of "Are they better than Tennessee?" Pretty equal, probably. Which is a compliment for a team returning 5 OL and with a consistently stingy defense.

In the context of "How good will they be this year?" they are looking at the possibility of 10+ wins because they play in the Coast Division of the ACC.

I think ranking them at 1 on his surprise teams list is a little disingenuous (they have the second best odds to win their conference) and probably one of the only subjective rankings that he does. Most of his other data sets and rankings are based on measurable facts.

Personally, I feel better about our team knowing how good last year's Pitt team was and how close we were to beating them. I don't think this year's Pitt team will be as good as last year's Pitt team, and I think this Tennessee team will be better than last year's.

 

[Ten_Titans]

View attachment 466377
Just wanted to keep this post appearing every now and then to help dispel the rampant rumor mongering that has infested this forum the last few days…

That isn't a rumor?

 

[TitanicVolz]

Well I didn't know whitehead was injured makes alot of sense now...

 

[Tennessee Golfer]

Man baseball season ended and everyone's done lost their damn minds around here.

 

[Tennessee Golfer]

I will not make a Weezer’s mom joke. I will not make a Weezer’s mom joke. I will not make a Weezer’s mom joke.