I’ve said I think we probably have 5 wins, 6 toss-ups, and 1 likely loss for our regular season this year.
What I did to come up with that is I used ESPN FPI and Bill Connelly’s SP+ and took the average of the two and then calculated the win probabilities based on margins projected for each of the three models.
FPI projects 5 wins, 4 toss-ups, and 3 losses, the same as they projected last year. The updated (May) SP+ projects 6 wins, 5 toss-ups, and 1 loss.
The average between the two projects 5 wins, 5 toss-ups, and 2 losses.
The common wins are Ball State, Akron, UT-M, MO, & VU. The only common loss is UGA. So by definition that leaves 6 games as potential toss-ups, a toss-up being defined as less than or equal to a 7 point margin (or a one score game).
I think ESPN FPI discounts our offense because they include recent history in their analysis. While SP+ recognizes the difference between Pruitt's offense and Heupel's offense FPI still gives Pruitt's offense 1/3rd weighting in projecting how our offense is likely to perform this year. Nerds. Amirite?
I think it would be good if we could win the wins and win 3 toss-ups to keep the positivity going but we could substitute a bowl win for one of the toss-up wins and still get to 8 wins which would still work. jmo.
The most important thing I think right now is to sort of keep our major focus on the building of our future roster and to not let a disappointing loss or anything else derail us from that purpose - otherwise, I don't see us ever getting off of this roller coaster we've been on in recent years. jmo.
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@ACvol3 - In answer to your question about whose rankings I use for roster talent, I use the 247 Team Talent Composite. I don't know of anyone else who scrubs the rosters every year to account for who is actually on that year's roster. At the moment they're working on the 2022 rosters. They usually publish the new season's roster rankings sometime during fall camp season after the schools have updated their rosters. For Tennessee I've always kept my own roster with notes and try to keep it updated in real time. When I have specific questions I also look at the current rosters of our opponents and check in on what their media and fans are saying. I'm retired so this is one of my favorite hobbies and I have the time. lol