Cover 3 SEC East win total predictions:
Tennessee 8 wins - Over -105, Under -120:
Tom: Under.
Chip: It's a tough schedule.
Tom: There's way too much Tennessee hype going into the 2022 season that I really do not understand. I get what caused it, because they were a fun team to watch last year, and they had a great offense. Hendon Hooker came out and they scored a whole buncha points. But they still have an awful defense, and I don't know what has changed between last year and this year to think that this defense is no longer going to be awful. When you have an awful defense it's really hard to win 9 games. It's hard to win 8 games. I don't think Tennessee in 2022 is really going to be any different than the Tennessee we saw in 2021. They're going to play fun games, they're going to lose a lot of fun games, they're going to win a lot of fun games, and they're going to end up probably about 7-5.
Bud: I'm right on this number, so it's not a play for me. I will say I think their offense will continue to roll right along. They should be really, really good on offense. People are like "oh, they're gonna adjust to this stuff." Ok, have they adjusted to what Kendall Briles runs at Arkansas yet? How's that adjustment going? Did the Big 12 actually adjust to what Briles ran at Baylor? Not really. This offense is basically a cheat code to win a lot of games in college football. Now you may say "when they play a Bama or a Georgia it kind of changes" and I agree, but you know what, everyone else's offense changes when they play those teams too, for the most part. Unless you have freak athletes. I have these guys tied for TENTH in my power rating...
Everyone else: Oh. Woo.
Bud: And I'm still not betting the over, so that should tell you the difficulty of the schedule here. They have a lot of games that they could lose. Tennessee is actually favored by 4.5 at LSU right now.
Chip: Tigers. Tigers.
Tom: Wait, they're favored by 4.5 AT BATON ROUGE?
Bud: Yes, and I took LSU.
[Everyone pulls out their phones to take LSU or imply that they are taking the LSU line immediately]
Bud: Yeah, I don't think that they should be favored at all at LSU, let alone 4.5. But this is a really good team. There's real downside risk because if they have a guy or two go down along the defensive line, I don't know about their depth. If they stay healthy they can win 9 or 10 games.
Chip: At Pitt is a game that I gave to Pitt when I was doing ACC reviews. That defense may be able to cause problems. I've got them starting 3-1, dropping both games to LSU and Bama. I think South Carolina is tricky, so now we're asking are you going to go 3-0 at home vs Florida, Kentucky, and Missouri? Absolutely something that you're capable of. But if you pick up losses at Georgia and at South Carolina, now all of a sudden you're looking at 7-5. I found it easier to find the losses than get all the way up to the wins. Those three road games all on the road in November, if there's any depth issues it will probably be exposed then. I'm more likely to go with a push (8 wins), but 7-5 is something that I think is more likely than 9-3.
Danny: I wish that I could go back and read some of my tweets from Tennessee fans over the years, because I have had a field day trolling this fanbase when they come in with massive expectations and they fall short.
[everyone laughs]
Danny: I'm on the Vols this year. I'm OVER. Give me the over. They have the second best quarterback in the SEC. You guys know how I feel about Hendon Hooker. I love what he's got. Here's the other thing too - you know, LSU, it's not surprising at all to me that Tennessee is favored. LSU has been back to back .500 teams. They're still rebuilding. We don't even know who their quarterback is going to be. Is it going to be one of four guys right now? Florida is a question mark. These teams that Tennessee has struggled against for the past decade all have significant question marks. The Pitt game I think is really interesting, and I know last year they made the switch to Hooker. They were actually leading when they made the switch to Hooker at QB. But I think the consistency of knowing who your guy is, and it's not going to exactly be a hostile environment to go into. It'll be loud for Pitt, but it's not going to be like going on the road in the SEC. I think they win that game. I've got them over. Tom, you are 100% right, but I am trusting the defense to get better. They can't get much worse. If they aren't much better, you know, they can't win every game in a shootout. But I do think the defense will be better. So give me the over on the Vols.