Last year:
Dominating wins:
Three OOC games (BGSU, Tenn Tech, S Ala)
at Mizzou
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Close wins:
at Kentucky
Close losses:
Pitt
Ole Miss
Games we weren't in:
at Florida
at Bama
Georgia
This year:
We have three more OOC games that we should win handily.
Are Mizzou, SCar, or Vandy improved enough to beat us this year? Knowing what we know about all of those opponents. For one of them to beat us, they would have to improve in a major way, and we would have to take a significant step back. None of those games were close. We blew the doors off of Mizzou and SCar. Vandy, we took our time but it was never in doubt.
We beat a decidedly better UK team on the road last year. Will we be worse than last season? At home?
We had a better Pitt team on the ropes last year, when we were still discovering our team and system. They've lost a lot. Will we be worse?
We swap a better Ole Miss team for a worse LSU team, albeit on the road.
Bama and Georgia will still be tough and should be considered losses. If we do win one of those, though, then the season is obviously a success, even if we don't improve over 7 wins.
We can all agree that the Florida result is skewed. Still, a challenge for us.
Even grading these harshly...
Sure wins:
Three OOC
at Vanderbilt
Probable wins:
at South Carolina
Missouri
Kentucky
50/50:
at Pitt
Florida
at LSU
Probable losses:
Alabama
at UGA
Even if we move one of our probable wins to 50/50, you're looking at 7-5 at worst, probably 8-4. 9-3 not out of the question.
@Ulysees E. McGill - can you share your 5 losses? Pitt, Florida, LSU, UGA, Bama?