In looking at our defense from last year one of the things that stands out in the stats is that if we held the opposing offense below a passer rating of 130 we won the game. If the passer rating was above 130 we lost the game. This worked 100% of the time.
In the run game if we held the opposing offense to under 4.35 yards per carry we won the game, with one exception, Vanderbilt. We held Vanderbilt to 2.33 yards per carry on 43 attempts. We lost all the games where we gave up more than 4.35 yards per carry. In the case of Vanderbilt we allowed an 88.6% completion rate on passing and a passer rating of 204.93, second only on our schedule to West Virginia.
I don’t know how many snaps we were in different formations on defense but this is the way the starting lineups were listed, 3-4-4, ETSU-W, UTEP-W, UA-L, 3-3-5, Char-W, KY-W, WV-L, GA-L, MO-L, FL-L, 4-2-5, AU-W, SC –L, 4-3-4, VU-L.
Up front we likely have Aubrey Solomon replacing Kyle Phillips. We have Emmit Gooden replacing Shy Tuttle and while I don’t want to make a call just yet on Solomon vs Phillips my sense is Gooden was more productive on a per snap count basis than Tuttle was last year. Savion Williams is who I think many believe will be replacing Alexis Johnson. Williams is considered by the evaluators as an immediate impact player. The last two seasons he’s played, his senior year in high school, and his redshirt freshmen year in junior college, the teams he played on went undefeated. Many here will be familiar with a number of his JUCO opponents so it’s not like he hasn’t been playing who we might consider good competition. I look for Williams to be an upgrade over Alexis and I don’t mean to disparage Alexis. It’s also my understanding that defensive line is the “easiest” position on the field to learn.
All in all I think the starters in a 3-man front for us this year could well be better than what we had last year, plus they are all guys Pruitt & Co. have brought in. We need some reserves and I think here we’ll find out who makes the rotation come fall camp. I think we have some promising candidates in Butler, Emerson, Mincey, Harris, and Middleton. It’s even possible that we could be surprised by Bumphus or Simmons. Garland and Blakely I’m not holding out much hope for this year.
One of the biggest issues we had last year was inconsistency in our pass rush and the incapacity of our linebackers in coverage. Henry To’oto’o is projected as a first round draft pick by the evaluators. While Crouch is already here and went through the spring, he’s still relatively new to the position. We have a lot of new young blood at linebacker this year and this fall they will be competing with Bituli, Ignont, Johnson, Allen, and Reid, to get on the field. Darrell Taylor is the returner it seems we can be most excited about. Another guy that could potentially be considered for the linebacker room would be Aaron Beasley, provided he could add about 10-15 pounds in mass since his last reported weight. I could see him as a JRM type player with good coverage skills and a hard hitting tackler. I think we have a really good opportunity to upgrade at linebacker this year from both a talent and skills standpoint. Youth will likely be our major issue.
We’re obviously good at the corner starting spots and just need to find a good 3rd man so that we have little to no drop off in the rotation. If warrior sticks at Star that could be interesting as he has been the 2nd leading tackler on the team behind Bituli for both of the past two seasons. I think Gibbs should hire Fields’ lawyer and present the same waiver request to the NCAA but at present it seems Solomon’s waiver looks more likely than his. My major concern on defense is the secondary minus the two starting corners. I’m not overly enamored with anything I’ve seen, read, or heard so far and those three spots, Star, SS, and FS, are in my opinion going to be an out-sized determinant in the level of improvement we see in our overall defense this year, particularly in the passing game. I like the idea of Warrior at Star and I like Jaylen McCollough based on what little we’ve seen, heard, and read. We need 2 or 3 more guys who can outperform what we witnessed last year.
If I look at the rankings history of all the guys on our roster this year, 12 of them were at one time considered composite 5-stars. Obviously, there’s all sorts of reasons players rise and fall in the rankings over the course of time a class is evaluated but the point is 8 of those guys are on defense, To’oto’o, Crouch, McCollough, Emerson, M. Gray, Peterson, Gibbs, and Aubrey Solomon. If 40% of them are busts as is the average then that may leave us with potentially 4-5 immediate impact type players to bolster our defense this year. Throw in a couple of the occasionally underrated types like Derek Barnett or Rashaan Gaulden, say a Roman Harrison or Tyus Fields, and let’s find some safeties and go out and beat Georgia. jmo.