Not impossible, but probably as likely as us going 10-2. UGA will whip them. LSU is even with them, as is Auburn. There's 10.0 expected wins. Miami could surprise them (30% chance?)...FSU is late in the season. I know they were terrible last year, but Briles is an absolute wildcard (20%?). By late season that offense could be rolling.
Ok, let's give them every possible benefit of the doubt and say they are 90/10 favorites over the rest of the East....we are now down to 9.0 expected wins. Even an extremely optimistic outlook leaves them a few games short in my book.
And I believe they are replacing most of their OL (Chatta?). They ARE fairly high on returning production, but if the new OL doesn't produce...well we know what that leads to. On top of that much of their top end incoming talent has exited, so they are probably thin at a few positions as well.
Wildcard in all of this is Mullen is an extremely good coach, as is his DC. They might have the best playcallers in the league.
Just so happens I am almost always working on my argument about how and why we can beat Florida this year and it's all directed at their offensive line. I mean I'm sort of putting all my eggs in this basket because other than that they probably do have a pretty good team. I guess I'm not totally convinced we pull it off but I'm still arguing my point. Here are my latest arguments.
We have to stop Florida’s offense if we are to win that game. They’re replacing 4 multi-year starters from their offensive line and 7 out of their top 8 rotation from last year so while it’s not guaranteed I’m expecting their offense to struggle a bit similar to what happened to Auburn last year.
Auburn had a returning stud quarterback, much of its elite receiving corps and a stable of quality running backs but their offensive line was in rebuild mode and so all those other weapons at the skill positions took a huge step back in production in 2018.
That doesn’t always happen. Alabama, for example, has the talent level that allows them to reload on the offensive line with relative ease. Florida doesn’t have elite offensive line talent and they’re short on healthy bodies, so much so that they are expected to have a number of true freshmen in their 2-deep for the line, mostly 3-stars.
Pruitt’s defensive philosophy is to keep sustained pressure on the opposing offense so if we can do that then we have an opportunity to flip the script from last year and our defense can lead the way for us to bring home the win. jmo.
Almost without exception all of the previews I’ve read for the Florida football team this year are forecasting an improvement for them over their performance last year. The one caveat almost everyone includes is they have to figure out their offensive line, meaning they have to replace 4 starters.
The big focus in on their elite receiving corps and the presumption that Franks will be as good or better this season, largely due to improving confidence. They also have decent running backs and tight ends.
Last year the AP had Auburn at #9 in their preseason poll. Athlon had Auburn at #7 and Phil Steele had them at #19 but he had Miami at #7 and Wisconsin at #6. Not one of those 3 teams finished in the top 25 for the year. There may have been other misses but my point is no one is that good at predicting how the season is going to shake out.
The line opened with Auburn an 18.5 point favorite against us last year and was still at 14.5 on Friday morning before game day.
Auburn has good running backs though they lost their stud from 2017. Still they had Stidham and almost all of their receiving production returning yet their offense was struggling from the start of the season.
In Athlon’s season preview for Auburn was this snippet:
In 2018, the question won't be about the QB but about his protection. During five of its last six games in 2017, Auburn started four seniors on its offensive line, and those players have given way to a lot of new faces. Line coach J.B. Grimes has figured out at least three of the five starting spots: left tackle, left guard and right guard.
The post mortem from their game with us was covered by SDS:
The wheels came off in a hurry, despite Auburn being favored in every game this season. Even head coach Gus Malzahn was scratching his head after the latest debacle, a 30-24 loss at home to a Tennessee team that hadn’t won a conference game in 11 previous tries.
“I’m going to watch the film,” Malzahn said after the shocking loss. “We’ll have a plan moving forward, whatever that is, to get better. Bottom line is we’ve got to get better and we’ve got to get better as a team. I’m very disappointed with our performance. I thought we would play better.”
There are many reasons why a team goes into the dumpster. Auburn is no exception. Here are five glaring reasons for the sudden collapse.
1. Offensive line
This is a no-brainer. It’s the first thing that comes to mind. The running game has become inconsistent, to put it mildly. The Tigers failed to break 100 yards as a team in the two previous games prior to accumulating 126 in the loss to Tennessee. Protecting quarterback Jarrett Stidham has been a problem as well.
“I think we’ve got to look at everything right now. We didn’t protect very well,” Malzahn said. “We need to look at everything — from an offensive line standpoint, for really all positions.”
In his interview on Wednesday, Pruitt explained that his defensive philosophy is and always has been to keep pressure on the opposing offense. That worked for us last year against Auburn and Kentucky. Since I’m seeing pretty much the same hype for Florida this year that was published last year and since Florida has to replace 4 starters on their offensive line, and really 7 of their top 8 linemen from last year, I don’t understand why more writers aren’t just a tad bit more cautious on the Gators prospects for this year. jmo.