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#72,101
#72,101
peaygolf said:
Lake Kelly was his coach at The Peay. He left and then came back while I was at APSU. He would put old game films on the projector and let us watch Fly. IT WAS AMAZING!

The stories Coach Kelly told would make your jaw drop.....................
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Would love to hear them sometime.
 
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#72,106
#72,106
This is the same guy that posts those CFB Graphs team comparison charts that was posted on the last page. He’s got a lot of good stuff if you go check his tweets.

This is one I found interesting. In another tweet this same guy threw some shade at the first half of the UT vs UGA game saying the Net Success Rate for UGA in the first half alone would have been +0.1944. For reference on this chart, the first half alone would have put it in the Colorado vs Oregon range.. aka.. you really did get beat that bad. So to end up where we did that would mean we made a big dent in it in the second half. That said, I’m of the opinion that Kirby thought he could still score in the 2nd half by running the ball and eating clock, especially with the rain. We did a good job to hold them so they couldn’t do that at least.

Edit: not related but still funny. He also uses these same metrics to determine lucky wins. Aka, your net success rank was negative but you somehow won. South Carolina led the list with a -0.1376 success rate against Vandy and still won 😂

 
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#72,108
#72,108
Connelly: A new way to do CFP rankings, including a BCS-style formula

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As a thought exercise, let's go back to that for a moment and see what it produces. What if we took the two most prominent college football polls (the AP poll and the Coaches poll) for the former piece and four computer ratings -- FPI and SP+ (both because they are two of the most accurate ratings available and they are very familiar to me) for team quality, strength of record and résumé SP+ (ditto) for proper résumé evaluation -- for the latter? This gives us the eyes of professional football writers and coaches, it gives us the emotionless, watch-every-game aspect that numbers perform better than humans, and it accounts for the ongoing and often conflicting "best vs. most deserving" debate that impacts any tournament selection. The committee always says it is choosing "best"; its constant and justifiable references to résumés prove it chooses "most deserving."
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How far does Tennessee fall? It's noteworthy that Tennessee still ranks second in strength of record, a measure we know the committee takes into account to some degree. The Volunteers clinched "great résumé" status by destroying LSU in Baton Rouge in Week 6, then knocking off Alabama at home in Week 7. Saturday was their last great résumé-building opportunity -- they finish the season with Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt and will almost certainly miss the SEC championship game now -- but the committee will likely give them a pretty cushy landing spot as they drop down from No. 1.

How cushy, though? Do the Vols only fall to third, ahead of the Michigan and TCU teams the committee clearly didn't love a week ago? Are they fourth, ahead of one of those two? The Formula incorporates SOR and still ranks them fifth, but the committee thought higher of them than The Formula last week.


If nothing else, the answer to that will tell us which division is more likely to get two zero- or one-loss teams into the CFP -- the SEC East or the Big Ten East. Michigan's poor nonconference schedule clearly dragged its ranking down last week and will likely continue to hinder the Wolverines even though the computer power ratings tell us they are clearly an awesome team (better than Tennessee, in fact). It's hard to think an 11-1 Michigan team, with even a super-tight loss to Ohio State in a couple of weeks, would get in over an 11-1 Tennessee at this point. Tuesday night's rankings could all but confirm that, though if a higher-ranked Ohio State ends up losing and becomes the one-loss team in question, that might change the calculus a bit.
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#72,112
#72,112
drvenner said:
*When
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giphy.gif
 
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#72,114
#72,114
mrmax86 said:
Welp, incorporating Opponent's Strength of Schedule has raised TCU above Tennessee...I weighted it as half as important as Strength of Schedule.

View attachment 511770

P.S. again: I forgot the rank decimal number so added it to the latest screenshot. I can't go back and re-do the other, so I'll leave it.
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I re-tooled it again:
  • Win% is still 1.5x
  • Offensive Scoring Avg is now 0.5x and rewards those far above others
  • Defensive Scoring Avg is now 0.5x and rewards those far above others
A couple things of note from my data:
  • Michigan and Ohio State's Strength of Schedule is POOR. 64th and 93rd in my rankings. They will definitely drop below us once one of them loses in week 13.
  • UT's Strength of Schedule is still elite (more so after playing Georgia).
    • This will likely go down, as we play 4-5 Mizzou, 6-3 South Carolina, and 3-6 Vandy in the next few weeks.
    • If you include their current records into our SOS, it would bump us down to around 23rd as things sit now.
  • If you average where each team is ranked, you can see the following (for secondary metrics/non win-loss):
    • Georgia averages 12th (#1)
    • Tennessee averages 18th (#2)
    • Alabama averages 19th (#3)
    • Utah/LSU 21st (#4)
    • OSU 24th (#7)
  • LSU shows great strength of schedule, but poor scoring metrics, compared to the elite teams.
  • There is a large amount of separation between the top 5 and the rest.

1667929477904.png

Enjoy all the colors.
 
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#72,116
#72,116
I would really like to see us rated 2-3 in the final polls. Mainly because I want use to shut the OSU, Mich Big10 groupies up and the we can play Ga. again on a no home field advantage game. We were flustered last week and I think they would have been flustered if they had played us in Neyland.
 
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#72,117
#72,117
thistime said:
I would really like to see us rated 2-3 in the final polls. Mainly because I want use to shut the OSU, Mich Big10 groupies up and the we can play Ga. again on a no home field advantage game. We were flustered last week and I think they would have been flustered if they had played us in Neyland.
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If we dominate our last three opponents, I don't think it matters what anyone else does.

Time and time again, year after year, the committee has shown that every Tuesday they rank the teams for talking points. Then the FINAL RANKINGS they really take it seriously and line these teams up how they want. If Georgia and Ohio State are undefeated, and we are 11-1, they will put us at 3 behind those two. The fourth spot will be wild, but they'll figure it out.

If Georgia wins out the regular season (looking obvious), we win out (we better), and Ohio State beats Michigan in their game, then we did all the hard work for the committee. Even if they don't rank us 3 after that game, they'll have their mind made up. They've done it MANY times before.
 
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#72,119
#72,119
thistime said:
I would really like to see us rated 2-3 in the final polls. Mainly because I want use to shut the OSU, Mich Big10 groupies up and the we can play Ga. again on a no home field advantage game. We were flustered last week and I think they would have been flustered if they had played us in Neyland.
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I DON'T want to play OSU.............
 
#72,123
#72,123
peaygolf said:
I DON'T want to play OSU.............
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Better go ahead and assume we will.

Last stats I saw were something like 60-70% chance we make the playoffs and the percentage is probably even higher than that number that when we do make the playoffs, we will play either OSU/Michigan winner.
 
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