Week 1 is in the books –
In the March 28th preview I posted for Florida and LSU, using the early preseason SP+ model from Bill Connelly, Florida was forecast to beat Utah by 2.8 points and Florida State was projected to beat LSU by 1.4 points. There wasn’t even a 50% probability that both of those things would work out that way, one maybe, but not both. jmo.
Even though the outcomes were unsurprising they make a tremendous difference in the narrative. If Florida loses it’s going to take Napier a while to rebuild. If LSU wins it’s because they still have elite talent. I figure that’s what the narrative would have been with alternate outcomes. jmo.
Florida State was #16 in the country in returning production. LSU reportedly only had 39 scholarship players when Kelly got to Baton Rouge. There’s QBR and there’s the NCAA passer rating. Anthony Richardson so far does better in the former and not so good in the latter. jmo.
West Virginia was #127 in returning production but they looked every bit as good if not better than Pitt last week. I don’t know if it holds true or not but I think Pitt is at risk of an emotional letdown after their “big” rivalry game. I don’t know if you can overcome that with coaching. It’s emotional fatigue and similar to physical fatigue there’s some period of rest and recovery required to get back to 100%. jmo.
In preseason models SP+ had us at 9 or 10 in all three editions, ESPN initially had us at 28 and Sagarin had us at 29. My understanding is that the latter two models were penalizing our offense due to the recency factor of Pruitt’s offenses. ESPN now has us at 10 and Sagarin now has us at 16. Similarly, I think Bill Connelly overrated Pittsburgh base on the same recency data. jmo.
Lastly, with Mitchell and Williams being out last week, people have speculated about why. We’re told it’s not injury related and I think Heupel said on Monday that we’ll see if Mitchell is HEALTHY enough to go by the end of the week. I’m guessing but I infer that both guys may have gotten the COVID. That’s still a thing; it’s just not talked about that much anymore. jmo.
Last week our 1st team offense had 8 possessions, scored 6 TDs, 1 FG, and punted once. Our 2nd team offense had 2 possessions and scored 2 TDs, while playing behind our 2nd team offensive line. Our 3rd team defense (3rd team because a number of the guys on the field for us weren’t listed on our 2-deep) held the Cardinals to a FG after the mishap between TJ and JWT, and Paddock was still running the Ball State offense. I think our depth may be underrated just a bit. jmo.
Right now I’m still thinking we have a decent chance of being undefeated when Alabama comes to Neyland. jmo.
View attachment 487220