9 p.m. ET, Thursday
Moneyline: Tennessee -240
The Case For
Some will say the Owls are lucky to be in the Sweet 16. They escaped with a 66-65 win over Memphis in the first round and got to play No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the second after the Knights upset Purdue in the round of 64.
That ignores the fact that Florida Atlantic ranks 22nd in
KenPom's overall efficiency. The Owls were also
13th in NET and racked up a 6-3 record against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. Tennessee is 10-10 in such games.
The Owls have had fate on their side, but they are a good basketball team. They've taken good care of the basketball, only turning it over 16 times in two contests, and have crashed the offensive glass, snagging 33 offensive rebounds.
If they can continue that trend by playing clean and creating second-chance opportunities, they will hang with the Volunteers.
The Case Against
Tennessee is a defensive juggernaut. The Vols rank No. 1 in KenPom's defensive efficiency, and that was on full display against Duke.
They held the Blue Devils to 85.6 points per 100 possessions, per
Bart Torvik. Three-point defense can be a volatile statistic, but Tennessee has found a way to consistently limit teams from beyond the arc, and Duke shot six-of-22 from three-point range.
They also did a great job of keeping Duke off the offensive glass. The Blue Devils were ninth in offensive rebounding percentage, according to
Bart Torvik, but were limited to six offensive rebounds in the second-round matchup.
That's a key element to Florida Atlantic's success that Tennessee is suited to eliminate.
Tennessee's rebounding and defense make it a difficult team to upset.
Upset Meter: Low. Tennessee matches up too well for the Owls.