Recruiting Forum Football Talk VI

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Okay, @TN-POSSUM , I expect better. Yes thatā€™s an evil priest, but definitely not an Aztec evil priest. India evil priestā€¦šŸ¤”

It still got the job done, so I will give you credit for the bama loss. šŸ˜Ž
Even the Thuggees hate the crimson tide and are disappointed in their lack of discipline
 
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Stop Rate ā€“

Since Tim Banks noted in his spring media session that our defense as measured by stop rate was better than perceptions I thought Iā€™d take a look. I consider a stop any drive that doesnā€™t end in a rushing TD, a passing TD, or a made FG. That means I credit as a stop if the opponent missed a FG, punted, gave the ball to us on a turnover, we forced a safety, or the opponent failed to convert a 4th down attempt. I didnā€™t include drives at the end of the halves when the clock runs out because for all of FBS I donā€™t have easy access to that info.

By my calculation we were 26th in the nation in stop rate for the season. Marshall was #1 and Iā€™m thinking I want their DC. They had to defend more drives per game than we did and they had less returning production last year that we do this year. Now granted Marshall doesnā€™t play our strength of schedule but they did beat Notre Dame last year and Notre Dame in their bowl game beat a hot South Carolina team that we sort of didnā€™t. lol

Anyway, Tulane beat me to hiring Marshallā€™s DC from last year but less than a month after the Tulane deal and before Lance Guidry (the DC in question) could settle into the Big Easy, Mario Cristobal intercepted him and signed him to a contract with the Hurricanes as their new DC.

I looked at the stop rates for all of FBS. Behind Marshall, was Iowa and Illinois at #2 and #3. Michigan was #5. Georgia was #7, Alabama #11, Clemson #18, Kentucky #23. South Carolina was #75. smh.

There were a number of areas where our defense improved dramatically last year and I really mean DRAMATICALLY. The biggest sore spot that stands out to many is our pass defense and I think Tim Banks and some fans sort of deflect when addressing that. In the 11 games we won our pass defense rating was 119.92. That would have been 21st best in the nation. In 9 of those games we won (leaving out UF & UA) our pass defense rating was 111.82 and that was #10 in the nation. Against UF and UA we had a pass defense rating of 151.00 which would be #120 in the nation and against Georgia and South Carolina, our only 2 losses, our pass defense rating was 212.76, good for maybe the 674th best pass defense in all of college football.

Iā€™ve looked at a lot of data on our pass defense trying to figure out if I should expect it to improve. Even with the selective look at games where our pass defense rating was exemplary we still gave up a lot of yards and first downs via the pass, more than just about everyone else, and their brothers and cousins. It turns out weā€™re giving up more completions in the less than 10 yards zone and in the 10-20 yards zone that the average for all of FBS. Beyond 20 yards our pass defense outperforms the FBS average, from a season perspective. Obviously this is ā€œbend, donā€™t breakā€.

I donā€™t think we always play bend, donā€™t break; I think it depends on the matchups the staff expects to see when theyā€™re game planning. Last year against Kentucky we, I guess, figured we could match up well with their receivers because we played really tight coverage and the guys talked about it in their post-game media appearances. Our pass defense was outstanding in that game.

Iā€™m not sure about Tim Banks and Willie Martinez but I canā€™t find anything that tells me they donā€™t know what theyā€™re doing. Actually, I lean toward the opposite. I think they probably do know what theyā€™re doing. I think the problem may have been, as others have long pointed out, perhaps our lack of significant talent in the backend of our defense. Obviously recruiting is the coachā€™s responsibility so thereā€™s no passing the buck. If my count is right we have 20 scholarship DBs on our roster so far for 2023, 15 of which were rated as a blue chip prospect by one or more of the recruiting services.

Okay, back to the stop rate. We give up more passing TDs than anyone else in the top echelon of the rankings for stop rate. We do okay in limiting rushing TDs. Alabama gave up 12 passing TDs in all of last year, 5 of those to us. We gave up 21 passing TDs last year. If we can cut our passing TDs down to 12 and force a punt for the other 9 then all else being the same weā€™d have the #1 stop rate in the conference. jmo.

Tamarion McDonald and Doneiko Slaughter led our defense last year with 6 PBUā€™s each. Gabe Jeudy-Lally had 7 PBUs for BYU last year. TMac also had 2 Ints and Doneiko added another. I donā€™t know how soon the new freshmen (Matthews, Gibson, etc.) will be ready but, and this may be a bit foolish on my part, Iā€™m leaning toward optimistic in regards to the improvement of our pass defense this year. jmo.

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ScreenHunter 1071.png
 
Stop Rate ā€“

Since Tim Banks noted in his spring media session that our defense as measured by stop rate was better than perceptions I thought Iā€™d take a look. I consider a stop any drive that doesnā€™t end in a rushing TD, a passing TD, or a made FG. That means I credit as a stop if the opponent missed a FG, punted, gave the ball to us on a turnover, we forced a safety, or the opponent failed to convert a 4th down attempt. I didnā€™t include drives at the end of the halves when the clock runs out because for all of FBS I donā€™t have easy access to that info.

By my calculation we were 26th in the nation in stop rate for the season. Marshall was #1 and Iā€™m thinking I want their DC. They had to defend more drives per game than we did and they had less returning production last year that we do this year. Now granted Marshall doesnā€™t play our strength of schedule but they did beat Notre Dame last year and Notre Dame in their bowl game beat a hot South Carolina team that we sort of didnā€™t. lol

Anyway, Tulane beat me to hiring Marshallā€™s DC from last year but less than a month after the Tulane deal and before Lance Guidry (the DC in question) could settle into the Big Easy, Mario Cristobal intercepted him and signed him to a contract with the Hurricanes as their new DC.

I looked at the stop rates for all of FBS. Behind Marshall, was Iowa and Illinois at #2 and #3. Michigan was #5. Georgia was #7, Alabama #11, Clemson #18, Kentucky #23. South Carolina was #75. smh.

There were a number of areas where our defense improved dramatically last year and I really mean DRAMATICALLY. The biggest sore spot that stands out to many is our pass defense and I think Tim Banks and some fans sort of deflect when addressing that. In the 11 games we won our pass defense rating was 119.92. That would have been 21st best in the nation. In 9 of those games we won (leaving out UF & UA) our pass defense rating was 111.82 and that was #10 in the nation. Against UF and UA we had a pass defense rating of 151.00 which would be #120 in the nation and against Georgia and South Carolina, our only 2 losses, our pass defense rating was 212.76, good for maybe the 674th best pass defense in all of college football.

Iā€™ve looked at a lot of data on our pass defense trying to figure out if I should expect it to improve. Even with the selective look at games where our pass defense rating was exemplary we still gave up a lot of yards and first downs via the pass, more than just about everyone else, and their brothers and cousins. It turns out weā€™re giving up more completions in the less than 10 yards zone and in the 10-20 yards zone that the average for all of FBS. Beyond 20 yards our pass defense outperforms the FBS average, from a season perspective. Obviously this is ā€œbend, donā€™t breakā€.

I donā€™t think we always play bend, donā€™t break; I think it depends on the matchups the staff expects to see when theyā€™re game planning. Last year against Kentucky we, I guess, figured we could match up well with their receivers because we played really tight coverage and the guys talked about it in their post-game media appearances. Our pass defense was outstanding in that game.

Iā€™m not sure about Tim Banks and Willie Martinez but I canā€™t find anything that tells me they donā€™t know what theyā€™re doing. Actually, I lean toward the opposite. I think they probably do know what theyā€™re doing. I think the problem may have been, as others have long pointed out, perhaps our lack of significant talent in the backend of our defense. Obviously recruiting is the coachā€™s responsibility so thereā€™s no passing the buck. If my count is right we have 20 scholarship DBs on our roster so far for 2023, 15 of which were rated as a blue chip prospect by one or more of the recruiting services.

Okay, back to the stop rate. We give up more passing TDs than anyone else in the top echelon of the rankings for stop rate. We do okay in limiting rushing TDs. Alabama gave up 12 passing TDs in all of last year, 5 of those to us. We gave up 21 passing TDs last year. If we can cut our passing TDs down to 12 and force a punt for the other 9 then all else being the same weā€™d have the #1 stop rate in the conference. jmo.

Tamarion McDonald and Doneiko Slaughter led our defense last year with 6 PBUā€™s each. Gabe Jeudy-Lally had 7 PBUs for BYU last year. TMac also had 2 Ints and Doneiko added another. I donā€™t know how soon the new freshmen (Matthews, Gibson, etc.) will be ready but, and this may be a bit foolish on my part, Iā€™m leaning toward optimistic in regards to the improvement of our pass defense this year. jmo.

View attachment 543017

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Always love these breakdowns
 
Stop Rate ā€“

Since Tim Banks noted in his spring media session that our defense as measured by stop rate was better than perceptions I thought Iā€™d take a look. I consider a stop any drive that doesnā€™t end in a rushing TD, a passing TD, or a made FG. That means I credit as a stop if the opponent missed a FG, punted, gave the ball to us on a turnover, we forced a safety, or the opponent failed to convert a 4th down attempt. I didnā€™t include drives at the end of the halves when the clock runs out because for all of FBS I donā€™t have easy access to that info.

By my calculation we were 26th in the nation in stop rate for the season. Marshall was #1 and Iā€™m thinking I want their DC. They had to defend more drives per game than we did and they had less returning production last year that we do this year. Now granted Marshall doesnā€™t play our strength of schedule but they did beat Notre Dame last year and Notre Dame in their bowl game beat a hot South Carolina team that we sort of didnā€™t. lol

Anyway, Tulane beat me to hiring Marshallā€™s DC from last year but less than a month after the Tulane deal and before Lance Guidry (the DC in question) could settle into the Big Easy, Mario Cristobal intercepted him and signed him to a contract with the Hurricanes as their new DC.

I looked at the stop rates for all of FBS. Behind Marshall, was Iowa and Illinois at #2 and #3. Michigan was #5. Georgia was #7, Alabama #11, Clemson #18, Kentucky #23. South Carolina was #75. smh.

There were a number of areas where our defense improved dramatically last year and I really mean DRAMATICALLY. The biggest sore spot that stands out to many is our pass defense and I think Tim Banks and some fans sort of deflect when addressing that. In the 11 games we won our pass defense rating was 119.92. That would have been 21st best in the nation. In 9 of those games we won (leaving out UF & UA) our pass defense rating was 111.82 and that was #10 in the nation. Against UF and UA we had a pass defense rating of 151.00 which would be #120 in the nation and against Georgia and South Carolina, our only 2 losses, our pass defense rating was 212.76, good for maybe the 674th best pass defense in all of college football.

Iā€™ve looked at a lot of data on our pass defense trying to figure out if I should expect it to improve. Even with the selective look at games where our pass defense rating was exemplary we still gave up a lot of yards and first downs via the pass, more than just about everyone else, and their brothers and cousins. It turns out weā€™re giving up more completions in the less than 10 yards zone and in the 10-20 yards zone that the average for all of FBS. Beyond 20 yards our pass defense outperforms the FBS average, from a season perspective. Obviously this is ā€œbend, donā€™t breakā€.

I donā€™t think we always play bend, donā€™t break; I think it depends on the matchups the staff expects to see when theyā€™re game planning. Last year against Kentucky we, I guess, figured we could match up well with their receivers because we played really tight coverage and the guys talked about it in their post-game media appearances. Our pass defense was outstanding in that game.

Iā€™m not sure about Tim Banks and Willie Martinez but I canā€™t find anything that tells me they donā€™t know what theyā€™re doing. Actually, I lean toward the opposite. I think they probably do know what theyā€™re doing. I think the problem may have been, as others have long pointed out, perhaps our lack of significant talent in the backend of our defense. Obviously recruiting is the coachā€™s responsibility so thereā€™s no passing the buck. If my count is right we have 20 scholarship DBs on our roster so far for 2023, 15 of which were rated as a blue chip prospect by one or more of the recruiting services.

Okay, back to the stop rate. We give up more passing TDs than anyone else in the top echelon of the rankings for stop rate. We do okay in limiting rushing TDs. Alabama gave up 12 passing TDs in all of last year, 5 of those to us. We gave up 21 passing TDs last year. If we can cut our passing TDs down to 12 and force a punt for the other 9 then all else being the same weā€™d have the #1 stop rate in the conference. jmo.

Tamarion McDonald and Doneiko Slaughter led our defense last year with 6 PBUā€™s each. Gabe Jeudy-Lally had 7 PBUs for BYU last year. TMac also had 2 Ints and Doneiko added another. I donā€™t know how soon the new freshmen (Matthews, Gibson, etc.) will be ready but, and this may be a bit foolish on my part, Iā€™m leaning toward optimistic in regards to the improvement of our pass defense this year. jmo.

View attachment 543017

View attachment 543018

Surely from that lengthy list that is basically 25% of our entire roster, we can find 5 solid players and some decent depth.
 
Stop Rate ā€“

Since Tim Banks noted in his spring media session that our defense as measured by stop rate was better than perceptions I thought Iā€™d take a look. I consider a stop any drive that doesnā€™t end in a rushing TD, a passing TD, or a made FG. That means I credit as a stop if the opponent missed a FG, punted, gave the ball to us on a turnover, we forced a safety, or the opponent failed to convert a 4th down attempt. I didnā€™t include drives at the end of the halves when the clock runs out because for all of FBS I donā€™t have easy access to that info.

By my calculation we were 26th in the nation in stop rate for the season. Marshall was #1 and Iā€™m thinking I want their DC. They had to defend more drives per game than we did and they had less returning production last year that we do this year. Now granted Marshall doesnā€™t play our strength of schedule but they did beat Notre Dame last year and Notre Dame in their bowl game beat a hot South Carolina team that we sort of didnā€™t. lol

Anyway, Tulane beat me to hiring Marshallā€™s DC from last year but less than a month after the Tulane deal and before Lance Guidry (the DC in question) could settle into the Big Easy, Mario Cristobal intercepted him and signed him to a contract with the Hurricanes as their new DC.

I looked at the stop rates for all of FBS. Behind Marshall, was Iowa and Illinois at #2 and #3. Michigan was #5. Georgia was #7, Alabama #11, Clemson #18, Kentucky #23. South Carolina was #75. smh.

There were a number of areas where our defense improved dramatically last year and I really mean DRAMATICALLY. The biggest sore spot that stands out to many is our pass defense and I think Tim Banks and some fans sort of deflect when addressing that. In the 11 games we won our pass defense rating was 119.92. That would have been 21st best in the nation. In 9 of those games we won (leaving out UF & UA) our pass defense rating was 111.82 and that was #10 in the nation. Against UF and UA we had a pass defense rating of 151.00 which would be #120 in the nation and against Georgia and South Carolina, our only 2 losses, our pass defense rating was 212.76, good for maybe the 674th best pass defense in all of college football.

Iā€™ve looked at a lot of data on our pass defense trying to figure out if I should expect it to improve. Even with the selective look at games where our pass defense rating was exemplary we still gave up a lot of yards and first downs via the pass, more than just about everyone else, and their brothers and cousins. It turns out weā€™re giving up more completions in the less than 10 yards zone and in the 10-20 yards zone that the average for all of FBS. Beyond 20 yards our pass defense outperforms the FBS average, from a season perspective. Obviously this is ā€œbend, donā€™t breakā€.

I donā€™t think we always play bend, donā€™t break; I think it depends on the matchups the staff expects to see when theyā€™re game planning. Last year against Kentucky we, I guess, figured we could match up well with their receivers because we played really tight coverage and the guys talked about it in their post-game media appearances. Our pass defense was outstanding in that game.

Iā€™m not sure about Tim Banks and Willie Martinez but I canā€™t find anything that tells me they donā€™t know what theyā€™re doing. Actually, I lean toward the opposite. I think they probably do know what theyā€™re doing. I think the problem may have been, as others have long pointed out, perhaps our lack of significant talent in the backend of our defense. Obviously recruiting is the coachā€™s responsibility so thereā€™s no passing the buck. If my count is right we have 20 scholarship DBs on our roster so far for 2023, 15 of which were rated as a blue chip prospect by one or more of the recruiting services.

Okay, back to the stop rate. We give up more passing TDs than anyone else in the top echelon of the rankings for stop rate. We do okay in limiting rushing TDs. Alabama gave up 12 passing TDs in all of last year, 5 of those to us. We gave up 21 passing TDs last year. If we can cut our passing TDs down to 12 and force a punt for the other 9 then all else being the same weā€™d have the #1 stop rate in the conference. jmo.

Tamarion McDonald and Doneiko Slaughter led our defense last year with 6 PBUā€™s each. Gabe Jeudy-Lally had 7 PBUs for BYU last year. TMac also had 2 Ints and Doneiko added another. I donā€™t know how soon the new freshmen (Matthews, Gibson, etc.) will be ready but, and this may be a bit foolish on my part, Iā€™m leaning toward optimistic in regards to the improvement of our pass defense this year. jmo.

View attachment 543017

View attachment 543018
Lance Guidry is Janzen Jacksonā€™s father
 
I hope this tournament has proven something to Barnes defectors. It has made me appreciate him even more.
That fails to consider very important variables. The Barnes Haters would have to be open-minded, fair, rational, and intelligent. There was enough data prior to the tournament, nothing aside from a national title would change their minds. Some would still hate Barnes - we watched them shift the goalposts all season and during the tournament.

"He won't get out of the first round." "He won't make the second weekend." *after proven wrong* "If they beat Duke and make the Sweet 16 I'll be impressed." "They're playing a mid-major so if he doesn't win he's a failure." "He can't make the Elite 8."

If we'd won it would've been something else. "No Final Four." "Should've beat K State but he didn't take a timeout with 10 left in the first half or sub X on at the right moment therefore coaching failure." "He lost to a garbage mid-major in the Final Four he had the easiest matchup what a failure." Write your own "He's a failure because ...." script for the title game.

One of the best men in coaching. Consistently top-ranked teams. Future Hall of Fame coach. They'll never be happy with him if they're not appreciative now.
 
Stop Rate ā€“

Since Tim Banks noted in his spring media session that our defense as measured by stop rate was better than perceptions I thought Iā€™d take a look. I consider a stop any drive that doesnā€™t end in a rushing TD, a passing TD, or a made FG. That means I credit as a stop if the opponent missed a FG, punted, gave the ball to us on a turnover, we forced a safety, or the opponent failed to convert a 4th down attempt. I didnā€™t include drives at the end of the halves when the clock runs out because for all of FBS I donā€™t have easy access to that info.

By my calculation we were 26th in the nation in stop rate for the season. Marshall was #1 and Iā€™m thinking I want their DC. They had to defend more drives per game than we did and they had less returning production last year that we do this year. Now granted Marshall doesnā€™t play our strength of schedule but they did beat Notre Dame last year and Notre Dame in their bowl game beat a hot South Carolina team that we sort of didnā€™t. lol

Anyway, Tulane beat me to hiring Marshallā€™s DC from last year but less than a month after the Tulane deal and before Lance Guidry (the DC in question) could settle into the Big Easy, Mario Cristobal intercepted him and signed him to a contract with the Hurricanes as their new DC.

I looked at the stop rates for all of FBS. Behind Marshall, was Iowa and Illinois at #2 and #3. Michigan was #5. Georgia was #7, Alabama #11, Clemson #18, Kentucky #23. South Carolina was #75. smh.

There were a number of areas where our defense improved dramatically last year and I really mean DRAMATICALLY. The biggest sore spot that stands out to many is our pass defense and I think Tim Banks and some fans sort of deflect when addressing that. In the 11 games we won our pass defense rating was 119.92. That would have been 21st best in the nation. In 9 of those games we won (leaving out UF & UA) our pass defense rating was 111.82 and that was #10 in the nation. Against UF and UA we had a pass defense rating of 151.00 which would be #120 in the nation and against Georgia and South Carolina, our only 2 losses, our pass defense rating was 212.76, good for maybe the 674th best pass defense in all of college football.

Iā€™ve looked at a lot of data on our pass defense trying to figure out if I should expect it to improve. Even with the selective look at games where our pass defense rating was exemplary we still gave up a lot of yards and first downs via the pass, more than just about everyone else, and their brothers and cousins. It turns out weā€™re giving up more completions in the less than 10 yards zone and in the 10-20 yards zone that the average for all of FBS. Beyond 20 yards our pass defense outperforms the FBS average, from a season perspective. Obviously this is ā€œbend, donā€™t breakā€.

I donā€™t think we always play bend, donā€™t break; I think it depends on the matchups the staff expects to see when theyā€™re game planning. Last year against Kentucky we, I guess, figured we could match up well with their receivers because we played really tight coverage and the guys talked about it in their post-game media appearances. Our pass defense was outstanding in that game.

Iā€™m not sure about Tim Banks and Willie Martinez but I canā€™t find anything that tells me they donā€™t know what theyā€™re doing. Actually, I lean toward the opposite. I think they probably do know what theyā€™re doing. I think the problem may have been, as others have long pointed out, perhaps our lack of significant talent in the backend of our defense. Obviously recruiting is the coachā€™s responsibility so thereā€™s no passing the buck. If my count is right we have 20 scholarship DBs on our roster so far for 2023, 15 of which were rated as a blue chip prospect by one or more of the recruiting services.

Okay, back to the stop rate. We give up more passing TDs than anyone else in the top echelon of the rankings for stop rate. We do okay in limiting rushing TDs. Alabama gave up 12 passing TDs in all of last year, 5 of those to us. We gave up 21 passing TDs last year. If we can cut our passing TDs down to 12 and force a punt for the other 9 then all else being the same weā€™d have the #1 stop rate in the conference. jmo.

Tamarion McDonald and Doneiko Slaughter led our defense last year with 6 PBUā€™s each. Gabe Jeudy-Lally had 7 PBUs for BYU last year. TMac also had 2 Ints and Doneiko added another. I donā€™t know how soon the new freshmen (Matthews, Gibson, etc.) will be ready but, and this may be a bit foolish on my part, Iā€™m leaning toward optimistic in regards to the improvement of our pass defense this year. jmo.

View attachment 543017

View attachment 543018

Love your analysis. Thanks for doing this.

These two statements are revealing.

"Iā€™m not sure about Tim Banks and Willie Martinez but I canā€™t find anything that tells me they donā€™t know what theyā€™re doing. Actually, I lean toward the opposite."

"We give up more passing TDs than anyone else in the top echelon of the rankings for stop rate."


May want to rethink that. Yes, talent plays a role. But what we saw on the field in the games that skewed the stats was total disarray and really weird approaches to coverages when considering matchups. It was the same talent that did exceptionally well in other games.

I just think it takes longer to rebuild a defense that will match an uptempo offensive system like ours, which includes the D coaching staff getting on the same page. I'm expecting a big step forward this season.

There's a reason Wille's contract was not extended after this past season by Heup. I trust he knows what he's doing. A little pressure for his guys to perform better as a unit may be just what is needed.
 
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