Recruiting Forum Football Talk VI

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#57,951
#57,951
Batman1948 said:
I said I hope he's not a paper tiger. Doesn't matter how talented he is if he gets injured and can't play----time will tell
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That was a fluke injury to fracture his clavicle. Totally different than the labral tear on the other shoulder. Sometimes playing full out results in injuries.

He played really well in the Orange and White game.
 
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#57,953
#57,953
ChattaTNVol said:
More LSU hate – well, just because –

I don’t really have that much of an issue with LSU but I do think Brian Kelly is getting a bit of love that might ought to be going to Heupel. jmo.

Most SEC head coach rankings that I’ve seen have Kelly #3 behind Smart and Saban. Josh often comes in at #4. I sort of take issue with that because I think Josh has the edge. jmo.

My theory is that Kelly is just a bit overrated. This year he is expected to have the best offense of his 14 year power 5 head coaching career and the best defense he’s had since 2012. I don’t believe either one of those things. On the other hand Heupel is almost universally known for fielding high octane offenses so that’s not really surprising when he has a high octane offense. In 2018 and 2019 Heupel’s defenses gave up 23 points or less per game. It was only 2020 with the Covid opt outs that his defense struggled. We had some growing pains in 2021 but vastly improved on defense in 2022 as shown in previous posts.

Brian Kelly has a resume. He has never put a high octane offense on the field, high octane meaning greater than 40 points per game on the season. Old dogs, new tricks, not likely. jmo.

ESPN FPI has LSU as the 4th highest rated team in the nation coming into 2023. They have us at #12. Now Connelly has us at #6 and LSU at #7 in his SP+ model. Connelly uses 2-4 years of recent history, meaning he isn’t locked in to a set amount of look-back years. ESPN is locked into a 4 year look-back period. Connelly no longer has a Pruitt team influence on our rating but last year FPI had the entire Pruitt tenure factored into our rating. This year FPI has us with 2 years of Heupel and 2 years of Pruitt. The Heupel years are over-weighted but the Pruitt years still have a significant drag on our rating in FPI. As the season progresses recent history has ever diminishing influence and so last year we finished at #5 in FPI same as in SP+. With a new year the preseason starts over and Pruitt’s teams are added back into the FPI algorithm. It’ll be 2025 before FPI forgets Pruitt was ever at Tennessee. Still, last year the earliest version of FPI had us at #26 and this year’s earliest version has us at #12. FPI is slowing wising up. jmo.

Along the same lines FPI still includes the 2019 national championship team in their rating for LSU. I wouldn’t recommend holding one’s breath waiting for Brian Kelly to field a team like the 2019 Tigers. jmo.

View attachment 547942

Kelly's resume - the green highlights are 2012 BCS championship game (lost), and 2019 & 2021 College Football Playoff (lost both times).

View attachment 547943

I reiterate my thesis that Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama are the top 3 teams in the conference and there's a significant drop-off to everyone else. jmo.

View attachment 547944
Click to expand...
That's a lot of words to say Kelly sucks. I agree though, Kelly sucks.
 
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#57,958
#57,958
ChattaTNVol said:
More LSU hate – well, just because –

I don’t really have that much of an issue with LSU but I do think Brian Kelly is getting a bit of love that might ought to be going to Heupel. jmo.

Most SEC head coach rankings that I’ve seen have Kelly #3 behind Smart and Saban. Josh often comes in at #4. I sort of take issue with that because I think Josh has the edge. jmo.

My theory is that Kelly is just a bit overrated. This year he is expected to have the best offense of his 14 year power 5 head coaching career and the best defense he’s had since 2012. I don’t believe either one of those things. On the other hand Heupel is almost universally known for fielding high octane offenses so that’s not really surprising when he has a high octane offense. In 2018 and 2019 Heupel’s defenses gave up 23 points or less per game. It was only 2020 with the Covid opt outs that his defense struggled. We had some growing pains in 2021 but vastly improved on defense in 2022 as shown in previous posts.

Brian Kelly has a resume. He has never put a high octane offense on the field, high octane meaning greater than 40 points per game on the season. Old dogs, new tricks, not likely. jmo.

ESPN FPI has LSU as the 4th highest rated team in the nation coming into 2023. They have us at #12. Now Connelly has us at #6 and LSU at #7 in his SP+ model. Connelly uses 2-4 years of recent history, meaning he isn’t locked in to a set amount of look-back years. ESPN is locked into a 4 year look-back period. Connelly no longer has a Pruitt team influence on our rating but last year FPI had the entire Pruitt tenure factored into our rating. This year FPI has us with 2 years of Heupel and 2 years of Pruitt. The Heupel years are over-weighted but the Pruitt years still have a significant drag on our rating in FPI. As the season progresses recent history has ever diminishing influence and so last year we finished at #5 in FPI same as in SP+. With a new year the preseason starts over and Pruitt’s teams are added back into the FPI algorithm. It’ll be 2025 before FPI forgets Pruitt was ever at Tennessee. Still, last year the earliest version of FPI had us at #26 and this year’s earliest version has us at #12. FPI is slowing wising up. jmo.

Along the same lines FPI still includes the 2019 national championship team in their rating for LSU. I wouldn’t recommend holding one’s breath waiting for Brian Kelly to field a team like the 2019 Tigers. jmo.

View attachment 547942

Kelly's resume - the green highlights are 2012 BCS championship game (lost), and 2019 & 2021 College Football Playoff (lost both times).

View attachment 547943

I reiterate my thesis that Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama are the top 3 teams in the conference and there's a significant drop-off to everyone else. jmo.

View attachment 547944
Click to expand...

I dont get the BK love either. Remember, a guy named Butch Jones came from the Kelly tree.
 
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#57,968
#57,968
VolsDoc81TX said:
That was a fluke injury to fracture his clavicle. Totally different than the labral tear on the other shoulder. Sometimes playing full out results in injuries.

He played really well in the Orange and White game.
Click to expand...
I get that and he had an injury at the end of the game which leads me to believe he may be injury prone. Time will tell. We've had other talented players who couldn't stay out of the ice tub. I hope he's superman because we need him on the field this year.
 
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#57,973
#57,973
Orangeburst said:
I dont get the BK love either. Remember, a guy named Butch Jones came from the Kelly tree.
Click to expand...
BK has won really well at CMU, Cincy, Norte Dame, and made an SEC championship in his first year at LSU…. He is a good coach and deserves where he is rated…. I feel that Heupel will eventually pass him and others on that list…. He just has net been a head coach long enough yet to pass the other coaches…. It will happen, imo
 
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#57,975
#57,975
Coach Doug Matthews made some good points today on his show

Said if they take schollys away then NIL will pay for them
Said they won’t do a bowl ban bc it cost not only the school but the conference too much so o guess that’s why Sankey was there
said UT should be fine

On football Saturday show they said the ship has done sailed and doing anything bad
 
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