Recruiting Forum: Football Talk XI

#10,676
#10,676
nicksjuzunk said:
Yeah, but that is averaging only 15 passes per game. We need to see that production weekly, with 25-30 passes per game. Then, we will be doing something right.

Butch kept getting on the WR's early in the year for some of Justin's problems. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on accuracy and timing, though his arm limitations are clear. If he starts the entire year, and completes 70% of his passes, we are in a bowl game.

Here is my meaningless stat breakdown, like I am prone to do. :)

Last year, TN QB's averaged 28 passes per game. I'm going to assume our team is better this year, resulting in more offensive plays, so I'll say 30 passes per game this year.

Worley averaged 6.32 yards per attempt, at 55% completion %, with poor WR chemistry. Our WR corp has been boosted significantly, so the yards per attempt will increase to... let's say... 8.5, with his increased completion %.

All of that said, Justin Worley averages 255 yards passing per game this year... and that sounds just about right to me.
Click to expand...

Sounds good to me!

thumbs-aloft.gif
 
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#10,677
#10,677
nicksjuzunk said:
Yeah, but that is averaging only 15 passes per game. We need to see that production weekly, with 25-30 passes per game. Then, we will be doing something right.

Butch kept getting on the WR's early in the year for some of Justin's problems. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on accuracy and timing, though his arm limitations are clear. If he starts the entire year, and completes 70% of his passes, we are in a bowl game.

Here is my meaningless stat breakdown, like I am prone to do. :)

Last year, TN QB's averaged 28 passes per game. I'm going to assume our team is better this year, resulting in more offensive plays, so I'll say 30 passes per game this year.

Worley averaged 6.32 yards per attempt, at 55% completion %, with poor WR chemistry. Our WR corp has been boosted significantly, so the yards per attempt will increase to... let's say... 8.5, with his increased completion %.

All of that said, Justin Worley averages 255 yards passing per game this year... and that sounds just about right to me.
Click to expand...

I guess I didn't think you were serious. I mean you do realize, don't you, that at least for the past 7 years in the SEC no starting QB has ever completed 70% of their passes including the best of the best. I don't think it's fair to Justin to expect him to have arguably the best QB performance of any QB in the SEC for even this year let alone the past 7 or 8. That's just setting him up for almost certain failure. Justin is Justin. He just needs to do what he does best and show a little improvement. jmo.
 
#10,678
#10,678
volinexile17 said:
I think Ferguson wins out. The two words CBJ most often uses to describe what he wants out of a QB are consistent and playmaker. He regularly says Ferg is a playmaker. I think that attribute wins out over Worley's consistency.
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He (Ferg) is inconsistent as heck, though. From what ive read Worley isnt as flashy but is the most consistent of the 4 qb's. Worley will get the starting job. Ferg needs to start being much more consistent aka stop throwing int's
 
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#10,679
#10,679
zhangliao04 said:
He (Ferg) is inconsistent as heck, though. From what ive read Worley isnt as flashy but is the most consistent of the 4 qb's. Worley will get the starting job. Ferg needs to start being much more consistent aka stop throwing int's
Click to expand...

the only problem with that line of thinking is that Worley is not consistent either - he had a bad TD/INT ratio of 10/8 - take out Austin Peay and that goes to 7/8

had lowest completion % in SEC - had 84% at AP - after that never broke above 58%

that is just not consistent QB play
 
#10,681
#10,681
nicksjuzunk said:
Yeah, but that is averaging only 15 passes per game. We need to see that production weekly, with 25-30 passes per game. Then, we will be doing something right.

Butch kept getting on the WR's early in the year for some of Justin's problems. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on accuracy and timing, though his arm limitations are clear. If he starts the entire year, and completes 70% of his passes, we are in a bowl game.

Here is my meaningless stat breakdown, like I am prone to do. :)

Last year, TN QB's averaged 28 passes per game. I'm going to assume our team is better this year, resulting in more offensive plays, so I'll say 30 passes per game this year.

Worley averaged 6.32 yards per attempt, at 55% completion %, with poor WR chemistry. Our WR corp has been boosted significantly, so the yards per attempt will increase to... let's say... 8.5, with his increased completion %.

All of that said, Justin Worley averages 255 yards passing per game this year... and that sounds just about right to me.
Click to expand...

6 YPC? Was that lowest in the league?
 
#10,682
#10,682
ChattaTNVol said:
I guess I didn't think you were serious. I mean you do realize, don't you, that at least for the past 7 years in the SEC no starting QB has ever completed 70% of their passes including the best of the best. I don't think it's fair to Justin to expect him to have arguably the best QB performance of any QB in the SEC for even this year let alone the past 7 or 8. That's just setting him up for almost certain failure. Justin is Justin. He just needs to do what he does best and show a little improvement. jmo.
Click to expand...

This.

70% is unrealistic. A better goal is 60-63% with improved yards per attempt, 22-25 touchdowns and 6-8 interceptions. That's a nice, efficient year. If he does that, he keeps the job all year and we shock some people.
 
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#10,683
#10,683
ChattaTNVol said:
I guess I didn't think you were serious. I mean you do realize, don't you, that at least for the past 7 years in the SEC no starting QB has ever completed 70% of their passes including the best of the best. I don't think it's fair to Justin to expect him to have arguably the best QB performance of any QB in the SEC for even this year let alone the past 7 or 8. That's just setting him up for almost certain failure. Justin is Justin. He just needs to do what he does best and show a little improvement. jmo.
Click to expand...

Yes, I was serious, and no, I did not realize that. I'm probably setting the bar too high, but that's what I'd like to see. :). Maybe 69% will do. Sure beats another 55% season.

Also, I expect Worley to utilize the short game, where his strengths lie. Higher % passes = higher completion %. The new offensive line may make this more of an issue as well.
 
#10,684
#10,684
zhangliao04 said:
He (Ferg) is inconsistent as heck, though. From what ive read Worley isnt as flashy but is the most consistent of the 4 qb's. Worley will get the starting job. Ferg needs to start being much more consistent aka stop throwing int's
Click to expand...

I think the problem with Fergy is transitioning to this level of play. In HS he could get away with forcing a play because in an odds game he would win out. So even if he threw an Int he'd come back the next series and throw a TD. His HS coach let him just play so our coaches now are having to show him that that it won't be as easy at this level. He is very talented and could really help us out imo but as you say he has to adjust his game to reduce the number of mistakes because at this level that follow on series likely won't be as easy as it was in HS. (There was an article about this with an interview with his HS coach on ESPN some time back).

I think Butch calls it the maturation process. Riley is "maturating" but has a ways to go atm. I, for one, hope he's a lot more maturated by the time we get to fall camp. They say a lot of maturation can occur in the summer months so I'm somewhat optimistic. Of course some QB's never maturate so they end up missing the draft and getting selected as free agents by the Kansas City Chiefs. :)
 
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#10,685
#10,685
SCvol333 said:
the only problem with that line of thinking is that Worley is not consistent either - he had a bad TD/INT ratio of 10/8 - take out Austin Peay and that goes to 7/8

had lowest completion % in SEC - had 84% at AP - after that never broke above 58%

that is just not consistent QB play
Click to expand...

Worley may (and probably is) be our best option. But his "consistency" and "accuracy" is overrated by people on here.
 
#10,687
#10,687
volstopfan14 said:
Worley may (and probably is) be our best option. But his "consistency" and "accuracy" is overrated by people on here.
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agreed - imo if he were actually as consistent as posters on here say (if he threw less than a pic a game - threw for over 60% completion %) this competition wouldnt even be close

its close b/c either way CBJ goes he doesnt have a high completion % and doesnt have low INT numbers - so imo why not just try and put the guy in with the most upside
 
Last edited:
#10,688
#10,688
Mike4Vols said:
This.

70% is unrealistic. A better goal is 60-63% with improved yards per attempt, 22-25 touchdowns and 6-8 interceptions. That's a nice, efficient year. If he does that, he keeps the job all year and we shock some people.
Click to expand...

I was thinking 62% which I think is a stretch but I agree with you. He can help us a lot but I'll really be shocked if he wins the Heisman.
 
#10,689
#10,689
SCvol333 said:
the only problem with that line of thinking is that Worley is not consistent either - he had a bad TD/INT ratio of 10/8 - take out Austin Peay and that goes to 7/8

had lowest completion % in SEC - had 84% at AP - after that never broke above 58%

that is just not consistent QB play
Click to expand...

I was just going off of practice reports from this time around. You are correct that last season he was not consistent or as productive as we want him to be. I fully believe that having more time in Bajakians system as well as better relationships with the WR's is helping him be more consistent now. Of course the upgrade at WR helps as well. QB's have had complete turn arounds from 1 season to the next. Worley may not be a world class starter, but I think he will be improved.
 
#10,690
#10,690
zhangliao04 said:
I was just going off of practice reports from this time around. You are correct that last season he was not consistent or as productive as we want him to be. I fully believe that having more time in Bajakians system as well as better relationships with the WR's is helping him be more consistent now. Of course the upgrade at WR helps as well. QB's have had complete turn arounds from 1 season to the next. Worley may not be a world class starter, but I think he will be improved.
Click to expand...

as should the other QB options with 1 more year in and they get the same WR upgrades

so I don't see that as a point of differentiation

your right QB's can make jumps - i would just argue there is more room for a jump from the 2 FR than from the JR - jmo
 
#10,691
#10,691
Surprised people are writing off Dobbs so soon after he was arguably the best QB out there at the O&W game. I have no horse in this race and I think Worley gets and possibly keeps the job. But Josh is going to give him and Ferg a solid run for it. His arm strength, decision making, accuracy, and confidence have all improved noticeably since last year. He looked poised and ready to go in the spring game and it showed.

And inb4 "but second string D, they threw the kitchen sink at Ferg on blitzes" - watch the tape. He looked good. I would be shocked if he redshirts.
 
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#10,692
#10,692
ChattaTNVol said:
I think the problem with Fergy is transitioning to this level of play. In HS he could get away with forcing a play because in an odds game he would win out. So even if he threw an Int he'd come back the next series and throw a TD. His HS coach let him just play so our coaches now are having to show him that that it won't be as easy at this level. He is very talented and could really help us out imo but as you say he has to adjust his game to reduce the number of mistakes because at this level that follow on series likely won't be as easy as it was in HS. (There was an article about this with an interview with his HS coach on ESPN some time back).

I think Butch calls it the maturation process. Riley is "maturating" but has a ways to go atm. I, for one, hope he's a lot more maturated by the time we get to fall camp. They say a lot of maturation can occur in the summer months so I'm somewhat optimistic. Of course some QB's never maturate so they end up missing the draft and getting selected as free agents by the Kansas City Chiefs. :)
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Yep. He has loads of talent and I believe he can be a starter. Just needs to stop making boneheaded plays in practice (which will translate onto the football field in an in-game setting). I am all for a QB that will dump pass it to the TE or RB if nobody else is open. Or just through it away. Trying to squeeze it in there (wait for it...) all the time will not always work out and usually ends up biting you in the butt more often than not.
 
#10,693
#10,693
SCvol333 said:
as should the other QB options with 1 more year in and they get the same WR upgrades

so I don't see that as a point of differentiation

your right QB's can make jumps - i would just argue there is more room for a jump from the 2 FR than from the JR - jmo
Click to expand...

Yep, I see that. The problem is how much of a jump will they make. That is the unknown variable that only the qb can make and so far the qb that is producing the most in practice overall is Worley (again from what ive read). I just want the best qb in terms or production out there from the 4 of them haha.
 
#10,694
#10,694
zhangliao04 said:
Yep, I see that. The problem is how much of a jump will they make. That is the unknown variable that only the qb can make and so far the qb that is producing the most in practice overall is Worley (again from what ive read). I just want the best qb in terms or production out there from the 4 of them haha.
Click to expand...

i'm with you there! :salute:
 
#10,695
#10,695
SCvol333 said:
as should the other QB options with 1 more year in and they get the same WR upgrades

so I don't see that as a point of differentiation

your right QB's can make jumps - i would just argue there is more room for a jump from the 2 FR than from the JR - jmo
Click to expand...

As others have said, the current guesses are based on practice reports where all things were presumably equal.

Obviously, the outlook could change between now and Utah State. It's just that when the most experienced QB is already in the lead, he tends to stay in the lead.

But I'm not going to carve that in stone. :)
 
#10,696
#10,696
If you want Worley's completion rate up, Jake has to call the game right. Same for any QB - even Dobbs. You cannot have half the pass routes thrown being near the sideline to go with the silly bubbles and bad screen attempts. That is just way too conservative and the D will be all over it like it was last year. Just the way it is for any QB you trot out there not named Manning, Brady, or Brees.

If they open the offense up, which there should be no excuses for not doing so this season, it will probably be a moot point and the 60-63% would be attainable. That will win some games with the WRs we have.
 
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#10,697
#10,697
I can't remember right now, but how often did Bajakian call quick inside slants last year? The screen game needs a complete overhaul. We can't seem to run one right.
 
#10,698
#10,698
I'd like to see an all around qb this year but what I want most is wins.

Heck...beat bama and I wouldn't care if he completed a pass or not.
 
#10,700
#10,700
zhangliao04 said:
I can't remember right now, but how often did Bajakian call quick inside slants last year? The screen game needs a complete overhaul. We can't seem to run one right.
Click to expand...

A slant and a middle screen ganged up on Bajakians dog when he was little. He's never forgiven them for it.
 
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