Recruiting Forum Football Talk XVIII

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#9,582
#9,582
2015 Preseason FPI: Ohio State still No. 1 in updated rankings - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

ESPN came out with their first edition of the FPI ranking before spring ball. The link above has the updated rankings post spring ball but unlike the pre-spring rankings this list did not include special teams.

I did a comparative analysis of TN offense to Opponent Defense and Opponent Offense to Tennessee Defense and threw in the Special Teams comparison as well as the home field variable to arrive at theoretical game spreads based on the pre-spring rankings. That analysis is posted somewhere back in this thread or it's predecessor. Based on the updated rankings, I updated my model and the spread moved in Tennessee's favor in every game on our schedule. Our offense got a small bump but our defense got a huge bump post-spring. Other teams went up and down as well with Arkansas taking a huge plunge in their defensive ranking. As a result of plugging in the new ratings for everyone's offense and defense the model continues to have us favored in every game we play this year with the exception of Alabama only as noted the spread has improved in our favor in every game. We'd even be favored against Alabama by 2 points if the game was at home. To be clear our advantage over GA, AR, OU, FL, & MO is less than a TD so in the world of "any given Saturday", it would probably take a small miracle to sweep them all----but at least the data is saying there's a chance. :)

@Alabama +5.0
Georgia -3.7
Arkansas -5.2
@Florida -5.8
@Missouri -6.5
Oklahoma -6.8
@Kentucky -12.6
South Carolina -17.1
Vanderbilt -21.2
Bowling Green -28.7
North Texas -35.9
Western Carolina -47.3
 
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#9,583
#9,583
ChattaTNVol said:
2015 Preseason FPI: Ohio State still No. 1 in updated rankings - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

ESPN came out with their first edition of the FPI ranking before spring ball. The link above has the updated rankings post spring ball but unlike the pre-spring rankings this list did not include special teams.

I did a comparative analysis of TN offense to Opponent Defense and Opponent Offense to Tennessee Defense and threw in the Special Teams comparison as well as the home field variable to arrive at theoretical game spreads based on the pre-spring rankings. That analysis is posted somewhere back in this thread or it's predecessor. Based on the updated rankings, I updated my model and the spread moved in Tennessee's favor in every game on our schedule. Our offense got a small bump but our defense got a huge bump post-spring. Other teams went up and down as well with Arkansas taking a huge plunge in their defensive ranking. As a result of plugging in the new ratings for everyone's offense and defense the model continues to have us favored in every game we play this year with the exception of Alabama only as noted the spread has improved in our favor in every game. We'd even be favored against Alabama by 2 points if the game was at home. To be clear our advantage over GA, AR, OU, FL, & MO is less than a TD so in the world of "any given Saturday", it would probably take a small miracle to sweep them all----but at least the data is saying there's a chance. :)

@Alabama +5.0
Georgia -3.7
Arkansas -5.2
@Florida -5.8
@Missouri -6.5
Oklahoma -6.8
@Kentucky -12.6
South Carolina -17.1
Vanderbilt -21.2
Bowling Green -28.7
North Texas -35.9
Western Carolina -47.3
Click to expand...

Oh man! So much pressure!
Whenimonmycomputer.gif
 
#9,584
#9,584
One thing we haven't discussed much about the 2015 offense is its tempo.

Watching the replay of the TaxSlayer Bowl shows how quickly we were getting plays off and is a big reason why we annihilated them in the 1st half.

Lots of snaps with nearly 30 seconds on the play clock. If we can push tempo consistently, we will wear teams down big time in the 2nd half.
 
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#9,586
#9,586
ChattaTNVol said:
2015 Preseason FPI: Ohio State still No. 1 in updated rankings - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

ESPN came out with their first edition of the FPI ranking before spring ball. The link above has the updated rankings post spring ball but unlike the pre-spring rankings this list did not include special teams.

I did a comparative analysis of TN offense to Opponent Defense and Opponent Offense to Tennessee Defense and threw in the Special Teams comparison as well as the home field variable to arrive at theoretical game spreads based on the pre-spring rankings. That analysis is posted somewhere back in this thread or it's predecessor. Based on the updated rankings, I updated my model and the spread moved in Tennessee's favor in every game on our schedule. Our offense got a small bump but our defense got a huge bump post-spring. Other teams went up and down as well with Arkansas taking a huge plunge in their defensive ranking. As a result of plugging in the new ratings for everyone's offense and defense the model continues to have us favored in every game we play this year with the exception of Alabama only as noted the spread has improved in our favor in every game. We'd even be favored against Alabama by 2 points if the game was at home. To be clear our advantage over GA, AR, OU, FL, & MO is less than a TD so in the world of "any given Saturday", it would probably take a small miracle to sweep them all----but at least the data is saying there's a chance. :)

@Alabama +5.0
Georgia -3.7
Arkansas -5.2
@Florida -5.8
@Missouri -6.5
Oklahoma -6.8
@Kentucky -12.6
South Carolina -17.1
Vanderbilt -21.2
Bowling Green -28.7
North Texas -35.9
Western Carolina -47.3
Click to expand...
woah
 
#9,590
#9,590
I keep having all of these moments of sheer optimism, and then I think about that wild card that is Debord. I think that the season depends on how quickly and how well he can adapt.
 
#9,596
#9,596
Wow, been gone for 10 days, and I see I missed absolutely nothing. Maybe I should just start checking once a month. Man.... TN recruiting is slow lately :crazy::thud:
 
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#9,597
#9,597
Coach Greene ‏@CoachRgreene40 7h7 hours ago

Nothing Better than having past E11 leaders give back. Huge S/O to Josh. The Vols got a great one! #EachOneTeachOne

CJNQrZqUwAAPLyP.jpg
 
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#9,599
#9,599
ChattaTNVol said:
2015 Preseason FPI: Ohio State still No. 1 in updated rankings - College Football Nation Blog - ESPN

ESPN came out with their first edition of the FPI ranking before spring ball. The link above has the updated rankings post spring ball but unlike the pre-spring rankings this list did not include special teams.

I did a comparative analysis of TN offense to Opponent Defense and Opponent Offense to Tennessee Defense and threw in the Special Teams comparison as well as the home field variable to arrive at theoretical game spreads based on the pre-spring rankings. That analysis is posted somewhere back in this thread or it's predecessor. Based on the updated rankings, I updated my model and the spread moved in Tennessee's favor in every game on our schedule. Our offense got a small bump but our defense got a huge bump post-spring. Other teams went up and down as well with Arkansas taking a huge plunge in their defensive ranking. As a result of plugging in the new ratings for everyone's offense and defense the model continues to have us favored in every game we play this year with the exception of Alabama only as noted the spread has improved in our favor in every game. We'd even be favored against Alabama by 2 points if the game was at home. To be clear our advantage over GA, AR, OU, FL, & MO is less than a TD so in the world of "any given Saturday", it would probably take a small miracle to sweep them all----but at least the data is saying there's a chance. :)

@Alabama +5.0
Georgia -3.7
Arkansas -5.2
@Florida -5.8
@Missouri -6.5
Oklahoma -6.8
@Kentucky -12.6
South Carolina -17.1
Vanderbilt -21.2
Bowling Green -28.7
North Texas -35.9
Western Carolina -47.3
Click to expand...

Counting anything better than a TD favorite as a win and the Alabama game as a loss, I see 5 swing games. Splitting those we are looking at 9-3 or 8-4. With 2 out of 3 wins against the swing games from the SECE we could be in Atlanta.

I'll take it.
 
#9,600
#9,600
Robert Gillespie ‏@UTCoachG

I woke up with this crew on my mind! Power of The Position. @A_kamara6 @MrHurd_1 @JKShuttlesworth @josephyoung37

CJOtscrVEAg4TkK.jpg
 
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