First, I picked us to go 8-4 last year while so many posters on here were saying we would win 10. I hit the nail on the head. The year before I said we would go 5-7 while many on here were saying we would win 8 or 9. I was off by one game. In Butch's first year I said we would go 5-7 while many were saying we should make a bowl game. Again, I hit the nail on the head, so I have a track record of being pretty accurate with my conservative predictions.
Also, I think you can look at those close losses last year and just as easily point to things that could have made them more convincing losses. We needed a couple of trick plays to score the 2 first half TDs against FL to get that lead everyone talks about us later losing. Without those plays their defense was really giving us fits. Against Bama I think our fans consistently underestimate the advantage we got from coming off a bye while Bama was playing their 8th game in a row. I think that may have been worth 2 scores in our favor.
Overall, Butch has done a great job of rebuilding our roster, and I expect this to be the best team we've had in a decade and maybe our best team since 2001. There is a lot of talent on this team and a lot to be excited about. It wouldn't surprise me to see us win 11 games, and I think there is an outside shot that we could even go undefeated (though that is extremely hard to do). For the first time since the Fulmer era, I look at our schedule and think we have a legitimate shot in every game.
Having said that, here are my reasons for predicting a 10-2 regular season rather than 11-1 or 12-0.
1.) We lack depth at DT. Right now we have 3 DTs we can count on in Vickers, O'Brien, and McKenzie. Picou is still a project, Tuttle and Johnson are still question marks in my mind, and as much as VN loves Paul Bain, I'm going to have see it to believe it with a walk-on playing in the trenches in the SEC. Other than these guys, we're looking at moving DEs over to DT because the coaches know we need more bodies. If everything falls into place, we could end up being fine here, but one injury combined with Tuttle and/or Johnson struggling to regain form could leave us in a bad place.
2.) Depth at LB. JRM and Kirkland give us a very dynamic starting duo, but if either of them gets injured (or just needs a breather) there seems to be a BIG drop-off from 1st to 2nd string at that position.
3.) I don't trust our passing game.
4.) OT. We were already lacking depth here before Hall got injured. Him being out only makes it worse. Richmond has a very high ceiling, bus as a RsFR he's probably still a couple of years away from hitting it. He may be good this year, but I think he will also go through some growing pains against the better D-lines we face. And while Brett Kendrick is a nice player, I don't think he's an upper-level OT in the SEC.
5.) This one may be a bit of a stretch, but depth at RB. We could lose a star-caliber player in the secondary, at DE, or even OG and still be ok because we have star-caliber players waiting in the wings at those positions. I don't think that's the case at RB though. If Hurd or Kamara goes down, there's a huge drop-off. I like Kelly and Fils-Aimee, but those guys are no Hurd and Kamara. Our top two are irreplaceable. Before you bash me on this one, stop and think about it. If one of those guys goes out for an extended period of time, how does that affect our offense and our chances of winning big games? Given our inconsistency in the passing game, and how well those 2 players compliment one another, losing one of them would be really bad news.
When I look at our schedule, these question marks are enough to add up to 2 losses IMO. I think we're a top 10 team (which is tremendous progress considering where we were when Butch took over), but, primarily because of the lack of depth at the key positions mentioned above, I don't think we're a top 5 team. Not yet.
