Recruiting Forum Off Topic Thread III

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#20,326
#20,326
Bassmaster_Vol said:
@Big Gucci Sosa

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Have already seen a Medical Doctor in TN spinning the drop in the IHME model. He said when Governor Lee started the "stay at home" order a few days ago caused the reduction in expected COVID-19 deaths on the TN IHME models.

They must think we are stupid. I can see a slight reduction due to the social distancing, but not a 10 fold difference in the TN numbers within 3 or 4 days. They won't admit the Models were wrong to begin with.
 
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#20,327
#20,327
smokeyz1 said:
Have already seen a Medical Doctor in TN spinning the drop in the IHME model. He said when Governor Lee started the "stay at home" order a few days ago caused the reduction in expected COVID-19 deaths on the TN IHME models.

They must think we are stupid. I can see a slight reduction due to the social distancing, but not a 10 fold difference in the TN numbers within 3 or 4 days. They won't admit the Models were wrong to begin with.
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The power of exponential growth is amazing
 
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#20,333
#20,333
Crazy Ivan said:
This is interesting.

Tracking site suggests White House model is overestimating coronavirus hospitalizations

Will take a wait and see approach to see if there is any follow up to this.
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I have been saying this for 2 or 3 days now. The IHME model overestimated the number of US COVID-19 hospitalizations needed by a wide margin. The models have been much closer to accurate on number of cases. However, the number of cases depends heavily on the number of tests since so many are asymptomatic.

The Model used the Italy % hospitalization rate to set up the US Models. For whatever reasons, the US % of COVID-19 hospitalizations have been much lower.

The reason % hospitalizations is important is because the whole reason for the economic shutdown was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and thus preventing deaths from a lack of ICU beds. Looks like we may have had enough ICU beds either way except for a few hot spots.

This topic will be debated for years to come. Did we really need to shut down the entire country? vs Did shutting down the entire country become the reason we did not overwhelm the hospitals? I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.
 
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#20,334
#20,334
This is a good, encouraging thread. Slavitt is a healthcare policy wonk, real big deep data guy from the Obama admin. Really the last person on earth to stretch for optimism if it isn’t there. TLDR; curve flattening appears to be happening right around the time (10-14 days after) shelter in place orders would have manifested results one way or the other.

 
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#20,335
#20,335
Geaux_Vols said:
This is a good, encouraging thread. Slavitt is a healthcare policy wonk, real big deep data guy from the Obama admin. Really the last person on earth to stretch for optimism if it isn’t there. TLDR; curve flattening appears to be happening right around the time (10-14 days after) shelter in place orders would have manifested results one way or the other.

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Wonder if some is also due to warmer weather as is the case with the flu?
 
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#20,336
#20,336
smokeyz1 said:
I have been saying this for 2 or 3 days now. The IHME model overestimated the number of US COVID-19 hospitalizations needed by a wide margin. The models have been much closer to accurate on number of cases. However, the number of cases depends heavily on the number of tests since so many are asymptomatic.

The Model used the Italy % hospitalization rate to set up the US Models. For whatever reasons, the US % of COVID-19 hospitalizations have been much lower.

The reason % hospitalizations is important is because the whole reason for the economic shutdown was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed and thus preventing deaths from a lack of ICU beds. Looks like we may have had enough ICU beds either way except for a few hot spots.

This topic will be debated for years to come. Did we really need to shut down the entire country? vs Did shutting down the entire country become the reason we did not overwhelm the hospitals? I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.
Click to expand...
Italy has an older population than us.
 
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#20,340
#20,340
smokeyz1 said:
This is one reason the US hospitalization rate is lower.
I also believe the US population most at risk (elderly) self isolated from the beginning .... thus a lower % of US COVID-19 cases had to enter the hospital.
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My parents were wanting to go flower shopping, go to the office, meet friends.

Not sure what direct influence I had but, I was very direct with both of them. They eventually relented.
 
#20,347
#20,347
Kudos to Clay! If one doesn't notice the media bias, they are not very bright. I love how Trump exposes them. Today, the media line was Death Camps.

A good buddy told me something which explains things: "My kids were schooled to be a Liberal BUT when they were on their own and were able to think for theirselves, they became very Conservative...
 
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#20,348
#20,348
Tncurler said:
Kudos to Clay! If one doesn't notice the media bias, they are not very bright. I love how Trump exposes them. Today, the media line was Death Camps.

A good buddy told me something which explains things: "My kids were schooled to be a Liberal BUT when they were on their own and were able to think for theirselves, they became very Conservative...
Click to expand...
Media bias shoots in both directions man.

Sinclair, FOX, HBO/NPR. Pick yer poison
 
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