nicksjuzunk
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Tennessee returns to action this week after dispensing with Oklahoma two weeks ago. Arkansas has been a weird match-up for the Vols in recent years. Though we don't face them often, they can be a tough out. This year, Sam Pittman is coaching for his life and Bobby Petrino is running the offense of what could very well be his next head coaching gig. Weird times in Fayetteville, and speaking of weird times, this is a night game on the road again. There will be hog calls and liquor flowing all night long. Arkansas lost in OT to Oklahoma State and lost to A&M by 4. They are close to an undefeated team. I expect them to be better than NC State, and possibly, a bit worse than Oklahoma, which makes them a threat.
Keys to Victory:
1. Run Defense: Arkansas features a mobile quarterback in Taylen Green who is currently second on the team in rushing. He has a shot at rushing for over 1,000 yards this season so he is an absolute threat to cause problems all night long with his legs. However, Texas A&M was able to hold him to 6 yards on 13 rushes, so that is the script. With an aggressive defense, we cannot afford to overshoot in the pocket and allow him to step up and peel off 12 yard runs on every drive. Pursue and contain. Look for Tennessee to keep a spy on him if he starts to step up too much and begins to gouge the defense. Ja'Quinden Jackson is a talented RB but has only averaged 66 yards in SEC play this year. Regardless, he is averaging over 6 YPC, so keeping him behind the LOS is key. Tennessee is 2nd nationally in rushing defense only giving up 50 yards per game, so we should follow the script.
2. Create Space: As always, Tennessee will want to create space on the scoreboard. Arkansas is not built to score points in bundles, and our defense is not built to give up those points. Getting a 14+ cushion early will force Arkansas to rely more on the passing game, and that is not Green's strong suite. He has thrown 5 INT's and has been sacked 12 times.
3. Dictate the Flow: Look for Heupel to treat this game like the Oklahoma game and play for a sure victory rather than playing wide open. Arkansas is only giving up 93 yards rushing per game. As a result, the Vols will need to have a more balanced approach in their offense, but should still lean run heavy. Tennessee is averaging 290 yards rushing per game, which is silly stats, but will be more along the lines of 175 by the end of the night.
Prediction: With the bye week, you can't call this a "let down" game, but before the line came out from Vegas, I had this at around 10-13 points, just for "feel" and nothing to do with logic. It doesn't feel like this is a blowout waiting to happen, but you can certainly see some big plays breaking open and Arkansas not being able to catch up. However, I am going to go conservative this week and believe that this is a similar game to Oklahoma and that Tennessee never really seems to be threatened too much, but the score doesn't ever seem quite out of reach either.
TN 41
Ark 27
