nicksjuzunk
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Date: Saturday, November 10th
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Network: SEC
The Vols remain at home after an uninspired win against Charlotte where they did just enough to not be humiliated, while resting some key players for the final SEC stretch. The rarest of pairings occur this weekend... Tennessee is an underdog to Kentucky at home, and most fans expect Tennessee to actually lose this game. On paper, it appears Kentucky should handle the Vols, but I'm not so convinced and let's take a look at why that might be the case.
Keys to Victory:
1. What's that Snell?: As we all know, Benny Snell is a great running back who has carried the Kentucky offense through a relatively historic season for the Wildcats. As he was rumbling through the season, I constantly wondered whether he would get injured, dinged up, run out of gas... whatever it may be... would the Benny Snell we see in Neyland be the same one who totalled 300 rushing yards in the first season? Well, maybe not. I'm going to divide the seasons into imperfect thirds to tease it out a bit. Current NCAA rushing defense rankings are included for SEC teams.
# 101 Central Michigan, # 80 Florida, Murray State, # 18 Miss State: Did not need to play much against Murray, so YPG are skewed lower.
135 yards per game, 10 TD, 6.1 YPC
# 88 South Carolina, #2 A&M, # 99 Vandy:
109 yards per game, 7 TD, 4.46 YPC
#25 Missouri & # 35 UGA:
70 yards per game, 4 TD, 3.6 YPC
There is an obvious and clear decline in his rushing yards as the year progresses. The question is, does this have to do with better rushing defenses or fatigue? I'm not sure... but personally, I think it's both. So what can we expect from Snell on Saturday? I'll take the middle ground and average out the defenses from the middle of the season, (USC, A&M, Vandy). Those defenses average out to be the 63rd ranked rushing defense (thanks to A&M). Conveniently, Tennessee is ranked at 66 nationally in rushing defense. If the Vols can limit Snell to under 120 yards, it would be a huge win... and this may be very well within striking distance. If I am Pruitt, I stack the box and force them to beat me through the air. Key Point: Snell below 120 rushing yards, under 4.0 YPC.
2. How much Magic is Left: We all know that Kentucky has defied the odds this year with a lot of bounces going their way. Few realize how close this team is to riding a 4 game LOSING streak into Neyland. I know... close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and dog farts, but let's play the game anyways.
Vandy, 7 point win: Kentucky passed for 18 yards. I'm not sure what the lowest passing total you can have and still win is, but I'm pretty sure this is close to a modern record. They also lost two fumbles, though that is offset by the recovery of 2 Vandy fumbles, one on the KY 20. Can you imagine winning a game with 18 passing yards... not in a hurricane? It happened. You should never be able to win a game like this, but Vandy...
Missouri, 1 point win: Kentucky did not manage an offensive TD until the final play of the game. They got a punt return TD with 5 minutes left in the game after trailing 14-3, and a PI as time expired gave them a second shot on an untimed down for the win. If you haven't seen the PI call, it was extremely questionable. They made the plays, but this was not far from being a loss, with Drew Lock only throwing for 165.
So how many more bounces are going to go their way? At some point, you think it has to be running out... but maybe they don't even need it against the Vols.
3. Crack the Defense: annnnnnd, this is where things are going to get a little haywire. Kentucky is ranked #15 in total defense in the nation. They are absolutely right there with Alabama and Georgia. Ouch. Josh Allen at LB is a monster and he is going to be a terror to JG and in the running game. Rushing defense is 33rd and Passing defense is 16th. Georgia managed to torch them for 331 (!) on the ground, but let's be honest... we don't have UGA's OL or RB's. As bizarre as it sounds, the Vols should be able to run more effectively than they did against Charlotte, but I expect to see more of the South Carolina gameplan on offense. There will not be "chunk" plays available with passing pocket time at a premium, but if Tennessee can put together those long sustained drives, they can keep themselves in the game. Somehow, Helton needs to find something that can work. Kentucky only gives up 15.3 PPG on defense, but the Vols are going to need more than that.
Prediction:
I would like to go a bit deeper into this, but I've put in a lot more time into it already than you would think. I began this thread thinking we had an upset on our hands. I rarely pick against the grain, but I thought that Snell's apparent decline would pace the Vols to victory. Unfortunately, QB Wilson has passed for over 100 yards more than his previous game averages over the last two weeks, so the offensive shortcomings will likely be negated. Ultimately, this is a match-up between the Tennessee offense and the Kentucky defense, and I just don't have any faith in our offense to put up more than the 13 point average they managed between similarly ranked defenses in UGA and Alabama.
TN 17
KY 21
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Network: SEC
The Vols remain at home after an uninspired win against Charlotte where they did just enough to not be humiliated, while resting some key players for the final SEC stretch. The rarest of pairings occur this weekend... Tennessee is an underdog to Kentucky at home, and most fans expect Tennessee to actually lose this game. On paper, it appears Kentucky should handle the Vols, but I'm not so convinced and let's take a look at why that might be the case.
Keys to Victory:
1. What's that Snell?: As we all know, Benny Snell is a great running back who has carried the Kentucky offense through a relatively historic season for the Wildcats. As he was rumbling through the season, I constantly wondered whether he would get injured, dinged up, run out of gas... whatever it may be... would the Benny Snell we see in Neyland be the same one who totalled 300 rushing yards in the first season? Well, maybe not. I'm going to divide the seasons into imperfect thirds to tease it out a bit. Current NCAA rushing defense rankings are included for SEC teams.
# 101 Central Michigan, # 80 Florida, Murray State, # 18 Miss State: Did not need to play much against Murray, so YPG are skewed lower.
135 yards per game, 10 TD, 6.1 YPC
# 88 South Carolina, #2 A&M, # 99 Vandy:
109 yards per game, 7 TD, 4.46 YPC
#25 Missouri & # 35 UGA:
70 yards per game, 4 TD, 3.6 YPC
There is an obvious and clear decline in his rushing yards as the year progresses. The question is, does this have to do with better rushing defenses or fatigue? I'm not sure... but personally, I think it's both. So what can we expect from Snell on Saturday? I'll take the middle ground and average out the defenses from the middle of the season, (USC, A&M, Vandy). Those defenses average out to be the 63rd ranked rushing defense (thanks to A&M). Conveniently, Tennessee is ranked at 66 nationally in rushing defense. If the Vols can limit Snell to under 120 yards, it would be a huge win... and this may be very well within striking distance. If I am Pruitt, I stack the box and force them to beat me through the air. Key Point: Snell below 120 rushing yards, under 4.0 YPC.
2. How much Magic is Left: We all know that Kentucky has defied the odds this year with a lot of bounces going their way. Few realize how close this team is to riding a 4 game LOSING streak into Neyland. I know... close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and dog farts, but let's play the game anyways.
Vandy, 7 point win: Kentucky passed for 18 yards. I'm not sure what the lowest passing total you can have and still win is, but I'm pretty sure this is close to a modern record. They also lost two fumbles, though that is offset by the recovery of 2 Vandy fumbles, one on the KY 20. Can you imagine winning a game with 18 passing yards... not in a hurricane? It happened. You should never be able to win a game like this, but Vandy...
Missouri, 1 point win: Kentucky did not manage an offensive TD until the final play of the game. They got a punt return TD with 5 minutes left in the game after trailing 14-3, and a PI as time expired gave them a second shot on an untimed down for the win. If you haven't seen the PI call, it was extremely questionable. They made the plays, but this was not far from being a loss, with Drew Lock only throwing for 165.
So how many more bounces are going to go their way? At some point, you think it has to be running out... but maybe they don't even need it against the Vols.
3. Crack the Defense: annnnnnd, this is where things are going to get a little haywire. Kentucky is ranked #15 in total defense in the nation. They are absolutely right there with Alabama and Georgia. Ouch. Josh Allen at LB is a monster and he is going to be a terror to JG and in the running game. Rushing defense is 33rd and Passing defense is 16th. Georgia managed to torch them for 331 (!) on the ground, but let's be honest... we don't have UGA's OL or RB's. As bizarre as it sounds, the Vols should be able to run more effectively than they did against Charlotte, but I expect to see more of the South Carolina gameplan on offense. There will not be "chunk" plays available with passing pocket time at a premium, but if Tennessee can put together those long sustained drives, they can keep themselves in the game. Somehow, Helton needs to find something that can work. Kentucky only gives up 15.3 PPG on defense, but the Vols are going to need more than that.
Prediction:
I would like to go a bit deeper into this, but I've put in a lot more time into it already than you would think. I began this thread thinking we had an upset on our hands. I rarely pick against the grain, but I thought that Snell's apparent decline would pace the Vols to victory. Unfortunately, QB Wilson has passed for over 100 yards more than his previous game averages over the last two weeks, so the offensive shortcomings will likely be negated. Ultimately, this is a match-up between the Tennessee offense and the Kentucky defense, and I just don't have any faith in our offense to put up more than the 13 point average they managed between similarly ranked defenses in UGA and Alabama.
TN 17
KY 21
