‘23 Recruiting Forum: Official Kentucky Pregame/Game Thread

#34
#34
Vol423 said:
Florida/Alabama - 0/2
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Would you prefer to have Dooley, or Butch, or Pruitt as coach?

It's okay to be disappointed. We all want to win those games. But sometimes you've got to rein yourself in a little. FFS, we did beat both of those teams last year. We're in a better position now than we've been in since the days of Fulmer. Let's not overlook that.
 
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#36
#36
IMG_5399.jpeg

I’ve been keeping up with this …. Opened at -4.5. Quickly went to -3.5. Early yesterday a high percentage of the money was going to Tennessee yet the line briefly moved to -3…. which seemed ominous.

But now as of early Tuesday morning most of the money is pounding Kensucky yet the line is holding steady at -3.5.
 
#37
#37
Why are we still bitching about it
Nothing will change until Saban retires

On to Kentucky
 
#38
#38
EdEcEko77 said:
View attachment 590062

I’ve been keeping up with this …. Opened at -4.5. Quickly went to -3.5. Early yesterday a high percentage of the money was going to Tennessee yet the line briefly moved to -3…. which seemed ominous.

But now as of early Tuesday morning most of the money is pounding Kensucky yet the line is holding steady at -3.5.
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At one point it went to -4 yesterday evening, which was strange since all the money was coming in on UK. With all the money coming on UK and the line staying steady, isn’t that Vegas wanting UK to continue to get pounded as they think we win and cover?
 
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#39
#39
OGbabyaviVol said:
At one point it went to -4 yesterday evening, which was strange since all the money was coming in on UK. With all the money coming on UK and the line staying steady, isn’t that Vegas wanting UK to continue to get pounded as they think we win and cover?
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Way more variables go into line adjustments than % money bet either side. You can’t glean anything from the figures on the that chart. Trust me, if the oddsmakers thought you could gain any kind of edge based on those numbers, they’d make sure they weren’t publicly available.
 
#40
#40
VOLS........................WE CAN STILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT YEAR ..............POUR IT ON KENTUCKY AND LET STOOPS KNOW THEY WILL NEVER BE THE SECOND BEST TEAM IN THE EAST. NOT IN HIS LIFETIME.
 
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#41
#41
ReelfootVol said:
VOLS........................WE CAN STILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT YEAR ..............POUR IT ON KENTUCKY AND LET STOOPS KNOW THEY WILL NEVER BE THE SECOND BEST TEAM IN THE EAST. NOT IN HIS LIFETIME.
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It was Alabama, in 'Loser. We never fully expected to win that, esp with the fix.
 
#43
#43
Jimmy Football said:
Way more variables go into line adjustments than % money bet either side. You can’t glean anything from the figures on the that chart. Trust me, if the oddsmakers thought you could gain any kind of edge based on those numbers, they’d make sure they weren’t publicly available.
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Respectfully disagree. But don’t care enough to argue. I’ll just say I’ve paid attention to this long enough to notice that when the line movement (or lack of movement) contrasts with where the money is going - you have a very solid indicator or the end result of a game.
 
#44
#44
EdEcEko77 said:
Respectfully disagree. But don’t care enough to argue. I’ll just say I’ve paid attention to this long enough to notice that when the line movement (or lack of movement) contrasts with where the money is going - you have a very solid indicator or the end result of a game.
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That’s fine. For anyone that does care: you’re not getting enough of the picture to get any real information. Again, Vegas isn’t giving away free money; if they thought those numbers were any kind of help to gamblers, they wouldn’t make them available.
 
#46
#46
EdEcEko77 said:
Respectfully disagree. But don’t care enough to argue. I’ll just say I’ve paid attention to this long enough to notice that when the line movement (or lack of movement) contrasts with where the money is going - you have a very solid indicator or the end result of a game.
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At this point time, with all of the money on Kentucky and the line staying steady, does that say Vegas thinks the end result is Tennessee wins and covers?
 
#48
#48
Jimmy Football said:
That’s the theory. But didn’t it say the opposite yesterday?
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Yeah, a little bit. The line was a little bit all over the place yesterday. At one time it was -3 and then it slowly crept up to -4 at one point late in the day, and then I saw it dropped back to -3.5. That is where it’s held since then, although it looks like more of the money is coming in on Kentucky.
 
#50
#50
OGbabyaviVol said:
Yeah, a little bit. The line was a little bit all over the place yesterday. At one time it was -3 and then it slowly crept up to -4 at one point late in the day, and then I saw it dropped back to -3.5. That is where it’s held since then, although it looks like more of the money is coming in on Kentucky.
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Trust me, OG. If you could get any kind of reliable edge on following these line shifts, it would be the Vegas equivalent of leaving the exhaust port unshielded on the Death Star.

But hey, maybe Ed is right. Hopefully he won’t forget us or the Volunteer Club after he’s made his first million taking advantage of Vegas’s oversight.
 
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