Recruiting Forum: Official Missouri Pre-Game/Game Thread

#1
nicksjuzunk

nicksjuzunk

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#1
Tennessee remains at home again this week after a scorefest against Kentucky last week. Could this week feature some more big numbers?

Keys to Victory:

1. Lock Down: Mizzou QB Drew Lock is down, but not out this week. He is fighting through a "leg injury" but is expected to play. How WELL he plays is by far, the biggest key in this game.

Missouri features the best passing attack the Vols have faced this season, ranking 24th in the nation in passing offense. Mizzou averages 297 through the air, and Tennessee gives up about 200, so something has to give. It is true that Lock has thrown for miles against the bottom of the schedule, but he has been very good against some stronger defenses as well:

UGA 376
USC 302
Vandy 294

Florida and LSU had him on lock down, and Tennessee needs to have some measure of that success also.

2. Slow the run game: Brace yourself... Mizzou runs the ball also. Tennessee has played 5 teams that rush for more than the 191 Mizzou rushes for weekly, but they also played 4/5 teams with defensive tackles... and we all see what the 5th team did to us last week. Against those 5 teams, Tennessee has given up a mind numbing 295.4 yards per game... and that includes a game when the excellent running attack of Ohio was held in check for 88 yards!!

The fact is, Tennessee is 102 in rushing defense, giving up 216.8 yards per game, and Mizzou is going to run wild, quite simply, because they can. Damarea Crockett is not the best RB Tennessee has faced, but he is 9th in the SEC in rushing, and hasn't had that nice Tennessee statistical bump that RB's tend to get after playing us... ouch. Crockett is going to get huge yards, and that is just a fact, so prepare yourself.

joaquin-phoenix-shock-signs.gif


____________________________________

That's the ugly part. Now comes the fun

3. Score more: Pretty much the biggest key every week, amirite? Tennessee doesn't have a lot of hope of slowing down Mizzou, but they do have the ability to make a little noise on their own. Here are some relative defensive statistics for Mizzou:

110 in total defense (464.4 ypg)
70 in scoring defense (29.1ppg)
109 in rushing defense (225.3 ypg)... yes, worse than TN

During the flim sessions this week, the entire offense should be...

QONVIyz.gif


4. 3rd down conversions: In a game which I expect to feature less punting than usual, 3rd down conversions become a huge factor. This is how the teams stack up against each other:

Offense conversion rate
Mizzou 41%
TN 39%

Defense giving up conversion rate
Mizzou 42%
TN 35%

Edge, Tennessee. Dobbs on 3rd down is a nightmare for defenses, and he will eat.

5. Mt. Rush More: We all know the difference between the offense when Dobbs is running, and when he is not. DeBord had a target of 12 runs for Dobbs against KY, and he nailed it. That netted 147 rushing yards for our hero. Dobbs is already the leading rusher on this team. This is the week that Kamara and Kelly pass the running back, formerly known as Jalen Hurd.

Dobbs 470
That dude who quit on his team in mid season 451
Kamara 441
Kelly 407

Kamara has 48 less carries, and Kelly has 66 less carries than that dude, but that's none of my business.

6. Red-zone shutdown: Tennessee won the Kentucky game by holding the Wildcats to 3 points, dang near every time they got into the redzone. How does Mizzou do in this area?

Red Zone Scoring
Tennessee: 92%
Mizzou: 72%

% of Redzone scores that are TD's
Tennessee: 75%
Mizzou: 63%

Huge edge to Tennessee

Red Zone defense (opponents score)
Tennessee: 84%
Mizzou: 85%

% of Redzone scores that are TD's
Tennessee: 67%
Mizzou: 74%

Fun with numbers. Edge... Tennessee

Prediction: If you enjoy defense, you should find an Alabama or Michigan game to watch this weekend. If you enjoy offense, this is your game. 1,000 yards of total offense. Tennessee rushes for 350+, and just try to ignore what Mizzou does. A shootout to remember...

TN 52
Mizzou 44
 
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#3
#3
Dobbs plays his final snaps in Neyland in style. He finishes with 5 total TD's.

Vols 45
Tigers 28
 
#5
#5
I'm up for seeing Barnett play his last game in Neyland against a team that likes to throw with a quarterback who's not 100%

VOLS- 45

TIGERS- 24

Barnett gets 2 sacks and ties the sack record.
 
#6
#6
volfaninpa said:
I'm up for seeing Barnett play his last game in Neyland against a team that likes to throw with a quarterback who's not 100%

VOLS- 45

TIGERS- 24

Barnett gets 2 sacks and ties the sack record.
Click to expand...

Mizzou is very good in not allowing sacks. Can't quite remember, but maybe 10th nationally.
 
#10
#10
Hope Foreman is ready to go. Glad Sutton is back. We will need both of them very much so
 
#14
#14
That other running back was not happy and had become a drain in the locker room. Ever since he made the decision to leave mid-season, the team seems to be playing with passion and purpose. The D is decimated but we have some of our leaders back out on the field and I think they help get things together this week. I think the O runs wild and the D looks better than they have.

Vols 56
Zzou 24
 
#15
#15
wow, and I was thinking more like 34-24...know one thing though, I would blitz (come hard) early to find out just how healthy Lock is...:yes::)

GO VOLS...RUN THE TABLE!
 
#18
#18
I was thinking 40 something to 20 something, but now you all have gone and convinced me Mizzou will score more than I thought. I am a sheep.

UT 48
Mizzou 34
 
#19
#19
I think the margin of victory will hinge a lot based on what happens in that other game that starts at 1 PM. As much as Butch will say they will not be looking at that score, they will. If LSU is up big by the time our game starts, I expect a butt whipping.
 
#21
#21
highspeed said:
I was thinking 40 something to 20 something, but now you all have gone and convinced me Mizzou will score more than I thought. I am a sheep.

UT 48
Mizzou 34
Click to expand...

The rest of us know nothing. :) Go with your gut. I think high scoring and 10 points. That means it will more than likely be the opposite.
 
#23
#23
Florida is going to get their bell rung big time at LSU. I'm expecting a 35-10 score LSU. For the UT game I can see anything happening, but we win. I'm going to pick the middle of the road and say 45-24 Vawls.
 
#24
#24
Dr. Jeckyl Dobbs shows up 50-42 Vols win
Mr. Hyde Dobbs shows up 45-16 Mizzou wins

Our defense is garbage due to injury and will give up 35+ to anybody we play. The offense lives and dies with Dobbs. I don't trust him to be good every week. When he's rolling we are unstoppable, when he sucks..the offense is puke inducing. I predict two different outcomes therefore based solely on Dobbs performance, and will for the rest of the games we play.
 
#25
#25
Missouri's offense is very good when you look at yards per game (24th in FBS), but only solid when you look at scoring average (54th). Lock is inefficient - he throws the ball a lot but only completes 55% of his passes.

They'll move the ball. Be opportunistic - let them make the mistakes. Bend but don't break.

They can't stop us on offense unless Dobbs is careless with the ball. They will pick a stupid throw. Play smart, make the open passes and let the running game do most of the work.

Not making a score prediction. We're 7-3, they're 3-7. Go win the game.
 
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