nicksjuzunk
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The Vols hit the road this weekend and travel to Charlotte to take on the NC State Wolfpack. Things went according to plan for Tennessee last week, and not so much for NC State who found themselves in much more of a fight than they expected. In fact, it's not a stretch to say that they should have lost that game in spite of dominating virtually all statistical categories. It just looked extremely bland and unconvincing. Was it apathy or the measure of their talent? This week should tell the story.
Keys to Victory:
1. Control the Line of Scrimmage: NC State was able to rush for an impressive 6.2 yards per carry but gave up an eye popping 6.3 yards per carry. If you missed the memo, NC State played Western Carolina, a team who will be facing opponents such as Campbell, Elon, Montana, Wofford, The Citadel, Mercer, ETSU and our favorite instate friends, UT Chattanooga. Western Carolina had no business rushing for 6.3 YPC... no business. Tennessee's success often hinges on their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. On offense, they will look to establish a strong running game through Sampson which will open up the passing game. On defense, their ability to keep 6th year senior Jordan Waters locked up will increase the pressure on their QB to keep up with Tennessee's pace. Waters had a decent game but a 50 yard carry does a lot for skewing statistics.
2. Shock n Awe: Year after year, teams who have not faced a Heupel offense underestimate the challenge of handling what they are about to experience. It's like your uncle Billy talking about all the big ones he's caught out on Norris lake before you take him out to fish tuna. You think you know, but you don't know. The Wolfpack will be sucking more wind than Lizzo running the 100 meters in fuzzy slippers. NC State has a decent secondary, but nothing that should be concerning. Depending on how this game goes, Heupel may dial up a play or two that has someone just ridiculously wide open. If the Vols lead by enough, he will dial it down and just beat the breaks off of them on pace alone.
3. Contain Concepcion: North Carolina State has a young WR named Kevin Concepcion who can change a game. The young Tennessee secondary will find out what they are made of this week as the UT Chattanooga players were in a different realm of talent and speed. Concepcion had 9 catches for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns. Keeping him under 100 yards will be key.
4. Turnover Time: Other than the blocked punt vs. UT Chattanooga, the Vols didn't force a turnover. Part of it was a very vanilla defense, but I had hoped to see a bit more penetration into the backfield and hits on the QB to generate some turnovers. Tim Banks will not have the luxury of sitting back this week and should open up things a bit more, releasing James Pearce and giving the secondary an opportunity to pick off some balls.
Prediction: The line of 7.5 is way too low here. NC State is better than what we just saw, and the Vols may not score 69 again this year, but there is a gap here and it is substantial. This has the potential to be an absolute runaway, but I think NC State puts up enough resistance to keep it respectable for most of the game. They never really threaten, but you don't completely forget what the score is either. Gimmee Vols by 17.
TN 41
NC State 24
I'm honestly not sure how they score 24, but there it is.
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