nicksjuzunk
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Tennessee wraps up SEC play with a trip to Neyland West, the home away from home. There are reports that wealthy Vandy boosters were trying to buy up tickets the last time Tennessee came to town, to avoid the shame of having your stadium decked out in the opponents colors. Not sure if that is going to be the case this week, but there will almost certainly be more orange than gold, because this is our state.
Keys to Victory:
1. 450: Over the last two weeks, the Tennessee defense has yielded 635 yards to KY and 740 to Mizzou. That's 53% more offensive production than KY's season average, and 45% more for Mizzou. That's not going to fly this week.
Vandy is 118th in total offense, with 336 yards per game. Although Tennessee is not going to suddenly defend like all-stars, given the state of the roster, look for the Vols to stiffen up a bit, and Vandy simply is not that good offensively. To me, the number Tennessee needs to hold Vandy to is 450 yards. That is about 33% more than what Vandy is averaging.
2. Shadow Defense?: Statistically, Vandy has a stout defense. They have given up a rather stingy 401 yards per game, but let's look a bit closer. Well... after looking a little bit closer, I don't quite see what I hoped to see.
Their top 3 offensive scoring opponents (MTSU, AU, Ole Miss) have averaged 35 PPG on the season. Against Vandy, they averaged 21 PPG... a full 14 points off of their average. Ole Miss played without Chad Kelly vs. Vandy, but the point remains.
You may be surprised to find Tennessee is 25th (36.5 ppg) nationally in scoring offense, which is second only to MTSU on Vandy's schedule. If the stats hold up, and Tennessee scores 22, will that be enough to win? Ehhh... that's kind of concerning.
Tennessee has actually already played 3 of the top 10 scoring defenses in the nation, 8 of the top 40. With THAT schedule, the Vols have averaged better than 35 PPG, so I think we can look for TN to do a little better than 22 points. Against teams with a better scoring defense than Vandy, TN has averaged 26.5 ppg.
3. DKK Speedwagon: The Dobbs/Kamara/Kelly Speedwagon needs to "Keep on Rollin'". Yeah... that just happened. Vandy is giving up 164 yards per game rushing, Tennesssee is gaining 205. The Vols are going to need to be over 250 in this game, with a healthy dose of Dobbs breaking containment to keep the chains moving.
4. Loosen up: Debord/Butch has a tendency to tighten up in defensive battles, that really doesn't play into their strengths as coaches. If we bad offensive play calling, we are going to be dryer than leftover turkey on Monday.
5. Bowl Breaker: Vandy needs this win to be bowl eligible. Tennessee needs this win to turn this season from a disaster, to a respectable, though somewhat underwhelming performance, and possibly get to the Sugar Bowl. One team is going to fall hard.
6. Vandy against opponents scoring defense: Vandy chronically scores worse than the statistics against their opponents:
Florida 13 ppg Vandy scored 6
SCAR 22 ppg Vandy scored 13
GT 24.8 ppg Vandy scored 7
KY 30.5 ppg Vandy scored 13
UGA 23.7 ppg Vandy scored 17
Auburn 14.3 ppg Vandy scored 16... yay!
Mizzou 32.2 ppg Vandy scored 17
Ole Miss 32.1 ppg Vandy scored 18... yay!!
Games against MTSU, TN State, and West KY, not included.
Tennessee's scoring defense is 27.8. Trend seems to indicate Vandy will do worse than that, and I'm going to peg it at 17-21 points.
Prediction: It's a really weird game. I didn't mention it, but RB Ralph Webb and QB Kyle Shurmur are strangely inconsistent. Vandy seems to be playing some of their best football at the moment, beating Ole Miss, and close games vs. Mizzou and Auburn. They also beat UGA and played SCAR and KY close, so they are a genuine threat. Ultimately, Tennessee is simply a better team.
TN 24
Vandy 21
Keys to Victory:
1. 450: Over the last two weeks, the Tennessee defense has yielded 635 yards to KY and 740 to Mizzou. That's 53% more offensive production than KY's season average, and 45% more for Mizzou. That's not going to fly this week.
Vandy is 118th in total offense, with 336 yards per game. Although Tennessee is not going to suddenly defend like all-stars, given the state of the roster, look for the Vols to stiffen up a bit, and Vandy simply is not that good offensively. To me, the number Tennessee needs to hold Vandy to is 450 yards. That is about 33% more than what Vandy is averaging.
2. Shadow Defense?: Statistically, Vandy has a stout defense. They have given up a rather stingy 401 yards per game, but let's look a bit closer. Well... after looking a little bit closer, I don't quite see what I hoped to see.
Their top 3 offensive scoring opponents (MTSU, AU, Ole Miss) have averaged 35 PPG on the season. Against Vandy, they averaged 21 PPG... a full 14 points off of their average. Ole Miss played without Chad Kelly vs. Vandy, but the point remains.
You may be surprised to find Tennessee is 25th (36.5 ppg) nationally in scoring offense, which is second only to MTSU on Vandy's schedule. If the stats hold up, and Tennessee scores 22, will that be enough to win? Ehhh... that's kind of concerning.
Tennessee has actually already played 3 of the top 10 scoring defenses in the nation, 8 of the top 40. With THAT schedule, the Vols have averaged better than 35 PPG, so I think we can look for TN to do a little better than 22 points. Against teams with a better scoring defense than Vandy, TN has averaged 26.5 ppg.
3. DKK Speedwagon: The Dobbs/Kamara/Kelly Speedwagon needs to "Keep on Rollin'". Yeah... that just happened. Vandy is giving up 164 yards per game rushing, Tennesssee is gaining 205. The Vols are going to need to be over 250 in this game, with a healthy dose of Dobbs breaking containment to keep the chains moving.
4. Loosen up: Debord/Butch has a tendency to tighten up in defensive battles, that really doesn't play into their strengths as coaches. If we bad offensive play calling, we are going to be dryer than leftover turkey on Monday.
5. Bowl Breaker: Vandy needs this win to be bowl eligible. Tennessee needs this win to turn this season from a disaster, to a respectable, though somewhat underwhelming performance, and possibly get to the Sugar Bowl. One team is going to fall hard.
6. Vandy against opponents scoring defense: Vandy chronically scores worse than the statistics against their opponents:
Florida 13 ppg Vandy scored 6
SCAR 22 ppg Vandy scored 13
GT 24.8 ppg Vandy scored 7
KY 30.5 ppg Vandy scored 13
UGA 23.7 ppg Vandy scored 17
Auburn 14.3 ppg Vandy scored 16... yay!
Mizzou 32.2 ppg Vandy scored 17
Ole Miss 32.1 ppg Vandy scored 18... yay!!
Games against MTSU, TN State, and West KY, not included.
Tennessee's scoring defense is 27.8. Trend seems to indicate Vandy will do worse than that, and I'm going to peg it at 17-21 points.
Prediction: It's a really weird game. I didn't mention it, but RB Ralph Webb and QB Kyle Shurmur are strangely inconsistent. Vandy seems to be playing some of their best football at the moment, beating Ole Miss, and close games vs. Mizzou and Auburn. They also beat UGA and played SCAR and KY close, so they are a genuine threat. Ultimately, Tennessee is simply a better team.
TN 24
Vandy 21
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