ridiculous stat to add fuel to the fire

#26
#26
99gator said:
i've defended cuonzo, but i saw this stat and it was so eye popping, that it really is hard to comprehend how tennessee has lost at all, nevermind several losses.

but, i looked at jay bilas' rankings of his top 68 teams. tennessee is 36th. in his blurb, he writes that tennessee collects 41% of their missed shots.

41% of the time tennessee misses they get an offensive rebound.

so, if they play a game and take 50 shots. let's say they make 20 of them. they get the offensive rebound on 12-13 of the 30 shots they miss.

that's ridiculous.

it's really difficult to rebound 41% of your missed shots and lose games. it just is. basically, they almost collect as many offensive rebounds in a game as the opponent gets defensive rebounds.

they average.....average.....14.7 offensive rebounds per game.

all of that equals the other team having to defend more, fouling more, allowing more stick back buckets (with the occasional "and 1"), etc, etc, etc.

now, here's the weird part. they only average 2 more shot attempts per game than their opponent
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Well played my friend. If we win, it's to be expected because of our great offensive rebounding and we should have won. If we lose it's In spite of our great offensive rebounding and we just keep making the mistakes over and over. Either way your covered, well played.
 
#27
#27
Martin's "offense" is garbage that results in bad looks and wasted opportunities time and again.

It's pretty much dribble until the shot clock is about to expire and hope McRae is on his game from 3 point range or toss it up every time Stokes or Maymon come close to getting any position inside.

It really doesn't matter how many rebounds that the team gets when they have no clue what to do with it after they grab the ball.
 
#28
#28
volfan199 said:
So, at first glance this does seem odd, but the explanation actually is not really turnovers but more involves both Tennessee's free throw rate AND their opponent's free throw rate. Tennessee's free throw rate is 43 percent (e.g 554 free throws / 1289 field goal attempts) which is in the middle of the pack for the SEC. That being said, their opponent's free throw rate is 33.4 percent (e.g 417 free throws /1247 field goal attempts). So, that's where the extra shots are disappearing to, as Tennessee gets about 6 more free throws than their opponents per game. Further, if we examine made free throws (UT 395 Opp. 286) that basically comes down to 5 more points per game. That's a big deal.
So at this point in this long post you can either yell FAHHRR KUONZO and quit reading OR you can continue reading and I'll try to explain part of why Tennessee has been under performing.
First, quickly read the start of this article by Ken Pomeroy about 3 point shooting defense and how much the percentages are actually controlled by the defending team. If you don't want to do that, the cliff notes version is that you're opp 3P% is more dictated by the teams you are playing and whether or not they are good/having a good day. Hence, it's a luck stat, kind of the recovered fumbles of basketball.
the kenpom.com blog
Tennessee is in 13th place conference wide in OPP 3P% at 35.2%. This doesn't excuse these losses or Cuonzo Martin, but consider that A&M shot 53 %, Kentucky 47 %, and Vandy 40 % in those losses. Those threes made a big difference in those games. If those teams shoot at their average Tennessee beats A&M and Vandy and the UK game is a one possession game. (Tangent on that UK game, they also went 23/24 from free throws AND we went 2/13 from three. It was a game where really aberrant shooting masked just how badly we spanked those guys on the boards. I would love another shot at them in Atlanta.)
Finally, consider that the season isn't over yet. Maybe we'll start to get some good luck in these next 9 games and we'll find a way to go 8-1 or 9-0. That's basically what's happened the past two years.
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^^^^^ Someone did their homework.
 
#29
#29
I don't understand how one specific stat, and a good one at that, should add any more fuel to the fire than there already is. Gator must be living under a rock to be surprised to find out that Tennessee is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Anyway, this stat in and of itself isn't that significant. It's just one component of the overall picture.
 
#30
#30
volfan199 said:
So, at first glance this does seem odd, but the explanation actually is not really turnovers but more involves both Tennessee's free throw rate AND their opponent's free throw rate. Tennessee's free throw rate is 43 percent (e.g 554 free throws / 1289 field goal attempts) which is in the middle of the pack for the SEC. That being said, their opponent's free throw rate is 33.4 percent (e.g 417 free throws /1247 field goal attempts). So, that's where the extra shots are disappearing to, as Tennessee gets about 6 more free throws than their opponents per game. Further, if we examine made free throws (UT 395 Opp. 286) that basically comes down to 5 more points per game. That's a big deal.
So at this point in this long post you can either yell FAHHRR KUONZO and quit reading OR you can continue reading and I'll try to explain part of why Tennessee has been under performing.
First, quickly read the start of this article by Ken Pomeroy about 3 point shooting defense and how much the percentages are actually controlled by the defending team. If you don't want to do that, the cliff notes version is that you're opp 3P% is more dictated by the teams you are playing and whether or not they are good/having a good day. Hence, it's a luck stat, kind of the recovered fumbles of basketball.
the kenpom.com blog
Tennessee is in 13th place conference wide in OPP 3P% at 35.2%. This doesn't excuse these losses or Cuonzo Martin, but consider that A&M shot 53 %, Kentucky 47 %, and Vandy 40 % in those losses. Those threes made a big difference in those games. If those teams shoot at their average Tennessee beats A&M and Vandy and the UK game is a one possession game. (Tangent on that UK game, they also went 23/24 from free throws AND we went 2/13 from three. It was a game where really aberrant shooting masked just how badly we spanked those guys on the boards. I would love another shot at them in Atlanta.)
Finally, consider that the season isn't over yet. Maybe we'll start to get some good luck in these next 9 games and we'll find a way to go 8-1 or 9-0. That's basically what's happened the past two years.
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Sticky worthy?

I think so.
 
#31
#31
calban said:
More drama.
Will our freshman rebound?
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I'd say Cofer and Turman will since that's what they are known for. They obviously need to get stronger to be able to fight down low but that's what they are known for now in HS.
 
#32
#32
utvolkyle06 said:
Well played my friend. If we win, it's to be expected because of our great offensive rebounding and we should have won. If we lose it's In spite of our great offensive rebounding and we just keep making the mistakes over and over. Either way your covered, well played.
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I am not trying to do anything. Win or lose, not really concerned as long as Florida gets the sec crown.

They will be a high seed and will play the first two rounds in Orlando.

Everything else is meaningless for me.
 
#33
#33
SJAVol32 said:
I'd say Cofer and Turman will since that's what they are known for. They obviously need to get stronger to be able to fight down low but that's what they are known for now in HS.
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Cofer has the genes to develop physically. Could lead the league later on with the high energy game.
I look for Turman to a be Charles Mitchell(MD) type and average about 6/6/2.
 
#34
#34
golfballs said:
I don't understand how one specific stat, and a good one at that, should add any more fuel to the fire than there already is. Gator must be living under a rock to be surprised to find out that Tennessee is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. Anyway, this stat in and of itself isn't that significant. It's just one component of the overall picture.
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Huh? Its most significant. And we will see how much next year when its not there. We dont make the NIT if we didn't have great off rebounding. We'll be close to last in the league next year.
 
#37
#37
Spartacavolus said:
Huh? Its most significant. And we will see how much next year when its not there. We dont make the NIT if we didn't have great off rebounding. We'll be close to last in the league next year.
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Didn't realize offensive rebounding is the most significant stat. I'd say shooting % and TO % are a whole lot more significant.

And it's really not going out on much of a limb to say that # is going down next year when Stokes and Maymon are gone. I'd say a lot of our numbers will be going down next year.
 
#38
#38
You guys overrate turnovers/%. We can win games with high turnovers. We can't win games without off rebounding.
 
#39
#39
Spartacavolus said:
You guys overrate turnovers/%. We can win games with high turnovers. We can't win games without off rebounding.
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well of course, but we would need to shoot a lot better or play better defense to do it.

TO% isn't overrated btw. It's only second to FG% in correlation to points per possession. (of course negatively correlated)
 
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#41
#41
golfballs said:
well of course, but we would need to shoot a lot better or play better defense to do it.

TO% isn't overrated btw. It's only second to FG% in correlation to points per possession. (of course negatively correlated)
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We had 8 turnovers against Vandy, which may keep us out of the tourney. Wonder if we had high or low turnovers in all our losses.
 
#45
#45
I think volfan199's research is right on the money. You guys can argue offensive rebounding and turnovers all day. We will get plenty of offensive rebounds, and this team has shown they will turn the ball over. Those can cancel each other out. The other team is going to get offensive rebounds, too.

If you look at the defensive stats, I think that is where we have lost a majority of our games. Whether you want to call it bad luck or poor defense, Vandy, UF, UTEP, and Xavier shot better against us than their season averages, and UK, A&M, NC State, and WSU were very close to their numbers. In addition, Vandy, UK, A&M, NC State, and WSU shot better from 3 than their season averages. If I read it correctly, of the teams that UT has lost to, Xavier is the only one in the Top 150 for 3 point FG percentage.

Now, these numbers won't always tell the whole story because we had a few terrible offensive games, too (UF, NC State). But, defense has been more of a problem than people think. You have to play both ends of the court to win games.
 
#46
#46
VolGee4 said:
I think volfan199's research is right on the money. You guys can argue offensive rebounding and turnovers all day. We will get plenty of offensive rebounds, and this team has shown they will turn the ball over. Those can cancel each other out. The other team is going to get offensive rebounds, too.

If you look at the defensive stats, I think that is where we have lost a majority of our games. Whether you want to call it bad luck or poor defense, Vandy, UF, UTEP, and Xavier shot better against us than their season averages, and UK, A&M, NC State, and WSU were very close to their numbers. In addition, Vandy, UK, A&M, NC State, and WSU shot better from 3 than their season averages. If I read it correctly, of the teams that UT has lost to, Xavier is the only one in the Top 150 for 3 point FG percentage.

Now, these numbers won't always tell the whole story because we had a few terrible offensive games, too (UF, NC State). But, defense has been more of a problem than people think. You have to play both ends of the court to win games.
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Have to agree with this.
Latest reminder, Vandy.
 
#48
#48
VolGee4 said:
I think volfan199's research is right on the money. You guys can argue offensive rebounding and turnovers all day. We will get plenty of offensive rebounds, and this team has shown they will turn the ball over. Those can cancel each other out. The other team is going to get offensive rebounds, too.

If you look at the defensive stats, I think that is where we have lost a majority of our games. Whether you want to call it bad luck or poor defense, Vandy, UF, UTEP, and Xavier shot better against us than their season averages, and UK, A&M, NC State, and WSU were very close to their numbers. In addition, Vandy, UK, A&M, NC State, and WSU shot better from 3 than their season averages. If I read it correctly, of the teams that UT has lost to, Xavier is the only one in the Top 150 for 3 point FG percentage.

Now, these numbers won't always tell the whole story because we had a few terrible offensive games, too (UF, NC State). But, defense has been more of a problem than people think. You have to play both ends of the court to win games.
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Some of that is good info. Fact is we avg 59 pts in losses though. Doesn't matter what d you play, scoring 59 will lose you more than it wins.
 
#49
#49
Spartacavolus said:
Some of that is good info. Fact is we avg 59 pts in losses though. Doesn't matter what d you play, scoring 59 will lose you more than it wins.
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Ok, good point. Let's take out the clear outlier of 41 against UF. I think we can all agree it is the worst offensive performance you will see this year. Therefore, the average moves up with the remaining 7 losses to 62 points a game.

Just taking the more meaningful games, at 62 points a game, we would still have beaten Xavier (2nd game), UVA, LSU, Alabama, and South Carolina. Also, we would have been a point down to WF, 5 points down to Auburn, 12 to Arkansas, and 8 to Ole Miss. I think you can argue that being within 8 points of the average could still produce a victory considering that it is natural to not play tight defense when the game is out of hand.

I still think defense is a big part of it. But, McRae's performances in a few of those have really hurt us.
 
#50
#50
VolGee4 said:
Ok, good point. Let's take out the clear outlier of 41 against UF. I think we can all agree it is the worst offensive performance you will see this year. Therefore, the average moves up with the remaining 7 losses to 62 points a game.

Just taking the more meaningful games, at 62 points a game, we would still have beaten Xavier (2nd game), UVA, LSU, Alabama, and South Carolina. Also, we would have been a point down to WF, 5 points down to Auburn, 12 to Arkansas, and 8 to Ole Miss. I think you can argue that being within 8 points of the average could still produce a victory considering that it is natural to not play tight defense when the game is out of hand.

I still think defense is a big part of it. But, McRae's performances in a few of those have really hurt us.
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Defense is huge, not doubt. But their is another D that occurs in our loses, and that is Droughts.

I'm not trying to take a side on which is more glaring. Droughts we had last year, the shady D we didn't really. I just wonder why CCM's bread and butter has become inconsistent.?
 
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