Rookie of the Year

#27
#27
I don't know if Heyward's had the best statistical year of any of the rookies, thanks to two months of a thumb injury, but if anybody else wins that award it's going to look in a few years like a "Hideo Nomo over Chipper Jones"-level decision.
 
#28
#28
Vercingetorix said:
I don't know if Heyward's had the best statistical year of any of the rookies, thanks to two months of a thumb injury, but if anybody else wins that award it's going to look in a few years like a "Hideo Nomo over Chipper Jones"-level decision.
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You honestly think Heyward is that much better than Posey? I'm not buying it.
 
#29
#29
vols kick balls said:
You honestly think Heyward is that much better than Posey? I'm not buying it.
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Posey's three years older. Lots of rookies come up and tear it up at 23 or 24, but almost none of them do it in the majors at 20/21 like Heyward. There's a reason why the Braves' announcers keep trotting out with stuff like, "The only players in baseball history who have ever done X or Y at Heyward's age are Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, and Alex Rodriguez." You never know what's going to happen, of course, but those extra years mean that Heyward's ceiling is basically unlimited.
 
#31
#31
Vercingetorix said:
Posey's three years older. Lots of rookies come up and tear it up at 23 or 24, but almost none of them do it in the majors at 20/21 like Heyward. There's a reason why the Braves' announcers keep trotting out with stuff like, "The only players in baseball history who have ever done X or Y at Heyward's age are Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, and Alex Rodriguez." You never know what's going to happen, of course, but those extra years mean that Heyward's ceiling is basically unlimited.
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I'm not saying Heyward won't be better. He probably will be. I'm just saying comparing Posey and Heyward, if it comes to that, to Nomo and Chipper is a little outlandish. Posey is going to be a great player himself.
 
#33
#33
vols kick balls said:
I'm not saying Heyward won't be better. He probably will be. I'm just saying comparing Posey and Heyward, if it comes to that, to Nomo and Chipper is a little outlandish. Posey is going to be a great player himself.
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I'm not directly comparing Posey to Nomo, just saying that this ROY vote has a chance to look retroactively like a real headscratcher. Posey's ceiling is probably your garden-variety great player -- somebody like, say, Chipper Jones. Heyward's ceiling is Mickey Mantle.
 
#34
#34
Angel Berroa?

Of course his competition was Hideki Matsui so it was a tough decision either way.
 
#35
#35
Heyward has the age factor; Posey has the position factors. It's not easy to come in as a rookie and handle a pitching staff, learn to call games, and learn the hitters. And he is doing this while being a top 10 bat since his arrival. Granted, he is catching the best staff in the game, but it's still tougher than standing in the grass.

Both will be great players for years. I won't have a problem if either of them win it. Or Garcia.
 
#36
#36
#1ArencibiaFan said:
Heyward has the age factor; Posey has the position factors.
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I don't actually think that Heyward's age should count for anything in the Rookie of the Year voting; that's supposed to be about what happened only this year. Where Heyward's age is important is what that means when you project it forward -- in the whole history of baseball, there have literally only been a handful of guys who have done some of the things that Heyward's doing at his age, and all of them are in the Hall of Fame. But it doesn't mean anything for voting this year. It just means that people could potentially look back and think, "What the hell? How the hell did the modern Willie Mays not win the Rookie of the Year?"

(A pretty good example of what those extra three or four years means for the future is Rafael Furcal. Remember how he was supposed to be doing what he was doing at 20 years old? And then 9/11 happened, and it turned out that he was actually 23, and all the statheads groaned and said "Well, HELL" because the projections for a 23-year-old with his stats and a 20-year-old were totally different. And just as all the revised expectations predicted, Furcal's turned out to be a good-but-never-great player. A guy who can bring it at an honest 20 like Heyward has a real chance to be one of the game's immortals.)
 
#38
#38
#1ArencibiaFan said:
But then you're not getting the complete picture of a player. Just taking the best of each and comparing, which is a terrible way to compare. Look at the whole.
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My apologies for bothering you so much with this. Let me ask you as question. To the regualr baseball fan what do you think their answer would be if you said name the 5 most important offensive stats?

I'll be waiting.
 
#39
#39
Vercingetorix said:
I'm not directly comparing Posey to Nomo, just saying that this ROY vote has a chance to look retroactively like a real headscratcher. Posey's ceiling is probably your garden-variety great player -- somebody like, say, Chipper Jones. Heyward's ceiling is Mickey Mantle.
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Please. Check Posey's college hitting stats. The stats he has put up projected over a full season would blow away every other catchers stats in the Major Leagues. You acting as if 23 year old rookie catchers that bat .320 and hit 20+ Bombs an drive in 80-90 just grow on trees is absurd.
 
#40
#40
I guess it's safe to assume that you think Jay Bruce's ceiling is somewhere in the Hank Aaron range because of the stats he put up as a 21 year old rookie?
 
#41
#41
VOLinthaATL said:
I guess it's safe to assume that you think Jay Bruce's ceiling is somewhere in the Hank Aaron range because of the stats he put up as a 21 year old rookie?
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Aside from HRs, Bruce's rookie numbers aren't in the same zip code as Heyward's.
 
#42
#42
VOLinthaATL said:
I guess it's safe to assume that you think Jay Bruce's ceiling is somewhere in the Hank Aaron range because of the stats he put up as a 21 year old rookie?
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Bruce hit .254 with a fabulous OBP of .314 as a 21 year old rookie. Heyward's OBP is almost 100 points higher. Great comparison.
 
#43
#43
GAVol said:
Aside from HRs, Bruce's rookie numbers aren't in the same zip code as Heyward's.
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Bruce played 108 games as a rookie. Heyward has played 133.

You're right. Give Bruce 25 more games that year and other than BA hit stats would almost all be better than what Heyward has done this year.
 
#44
#44
Vercingetorix said:
Bruce hit .254 with a fabulous OBP of .314 as a 21 year old rookie. Heyward's OBP is almost 100 points higher. Great comparison.
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Yea since I compared Hank Aaron's rookie stats and Bruce's rookei stats. Try and follow along, I know it's hard to not get all butthurt that we don't all swing on Heywards sac but come one now.

Guess what Hank Aaron's OBP was a rookie.

.322 - Really setting the world on fire. I bet people wrote him off as a bum. I know you would have.
 
#45
#45
VOLinthaATL said:
Bruce played 108 games as a rookie. Heyward has played 133.

You're right. Give Bruce 25 more games that year and other than BA hit stats would almost all be better than what Heyward has done this year.
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Since you get to pretend what would have happened if Bruce hadn't been in AAA for the first 2 months, do I get to pretend what would have happened if Heyward hadn't spent a month playing through a bad thumb and 2 weeks on the DL?
 
#46
#46
VOLinthaATL said:
Please. Check Posey's college hitting stats. The stats he has put up projected over a full season would blow away every other catchers stats in the Major Leagues. You acting as if 23 year old rookie catchers that bat .320 and hit 20+ Bombs an drive in 80-90 just grow on trees is absurd.
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I compared Posey to a guy who's going to the Hall of Fame. How is that acting like players like him grow on trees? Posey has a chance to be a great player -- maybe a Mike Piazza who can actually play the catcher position. It's not an insult to say that his ceiling isn't as high as a guy who is doing stuff that only Ted Williams and Alex Rodriguez did at his age.
 
#47
#47
GAVol said:
Since you get to pretend what would have happened if Bruce hadn't been in AAA for the first 2 months, do I get to pretend what would have happened if Heyward hadn't spent a month playing through a bad thumb and 2 weeks on the DL?
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Pretend? Projected stats are used all the time. Try not to reach on me...
 
#48
#48
GAVol said:
Since you get to pretend what would have happened if Bruce hadn't been in AAA for the first 2 months, do I get to pretend what would have happened if Heyward hadn't spent a month playing through a bad thumb and 2 weeks on the DL?
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Since apparently projected stats are fair game, what do you think Heyward's stats would look like if you took just April, May, August, and September and projected them out over a full season?

Let's just go with OPS:

April .880
May 1.081
June .532
July .915
August .936
September .928

Gee, I wonder when his thumb was bothering him?
 
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#49
#49
VOLinthaATL said:
Pretend? Projected stats are used all the time. Try not to reach on me...
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I get that . . . but isn't it a little shaky to project stats for a guy that wasn't even in MLB at the time? I know a lot of times guys get left in AAA for monetary reasons, but if he was really that great wouldn't they have put him on the opening day roster to begin with?
 
#50
#50
Vercingetorix said:
I compared Posey to a guy who's going to the Hall of Fame. How is that acting like players like him grow on trees? Posey has a chance to be a great player -- maybe a Mike Piazza who can actually play the catcher position. It's not an insult to say that his ceiling isn't as high as a guy who is doing stuff that only Ted Williams and Alex Rodriguez did at his age.
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Considering his position and the historical nature that catcher's rarely provide any offense Posey has a chance to go down as the best ever as his position if he continues what he is doing. There is no debate. Chipper Jones isn't even in the top 5 in all time third baseman. Great comparison.
 
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