Rookie of the Year

#51
#51
Vercingetorix said:
Since apparently projected stats are fair game, what do you think Heyward's stats would look like if you took just April, May, August, and September and projected them out over a full season?
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Absurd. You can't just throw out months or weeks where he didn't hit and project only his good months. That's garbage and a total reach. Nice work.

Considering I never said take out any of Bruce's stats from his rookie year and only to select his good months your point is no point and was veru poor attempt.
 
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#52
#52
GAVol said:
I get that . . . but isn't it a little shaky to project stats for a guy that wasn't even in MLB at the time? I know a lot of times guys get left in AAA for monetary reasons, but if he was really that great wouldn't they have put him on the opening day roster to begin with?
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Not sure that matters. You can only make a projection on the games and data you have.

Check who won the NL ROY last year. Basically won the award with an absurd second half of the season. How'd he end up this year?
 
#53
#53
VOLinthaATL said:
Absurd. You can't just throw out months or weeks where he didn't hit and project only his good months. That's garbage and a total reach. Nice work.

Considering I never said take out any of Bruce's stats from his rookie year and only to select his good months your point is no point and was veru poor attempt.
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So we can't project numbers based on a freak injury that was very real and documented and occurred after a guy had proven he was MLB ready . . . but you can project numbers based on a time prior to when a guy was even in the majors?

I know we're just talking pie in the sky here, but the conclusion seems pretty obvious if Heyward and Bruce both get 600 healthy ABs.
 
#54
#54
Vercingetorix said:
Since apparently projected stats are fair game, what do you think Heyward's stats would look like if you took just April, May, August, and September and projected them out over a full season?

Let's just go with OPS:

April .880
May 1.081
June .532
July .915
August .936
September .928

Gee, I wonder when his thumb was bothering him?
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This is more garbage. If the ROY voters weigh that when making their vote than the award and the voters are a sham. You look at the overall stats and season and make a decision. You don't get a pass because you played with a sore thumb for a month and it really affected you. It's part of the game and should not be a deciding factor.
 
#55
#55
GAVol said:
So we can't project numbers based on a freak injury that was very real and documented and occurred after a guy had proven he was MLB ready . . . but you can project numbers based on a time prior to when a guy was even in the majors?

I know we're just talking pie in the sky here, but the conclusion seems pretty obvious if Heyward and Bruce both get 600 healthy ABs.
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No because that should not be a factor in the decision whatsoever. Playing with injuries is part of the game and in no way should mean a player gets pass because % of guys probably are always dealing with some sort of nagging injury.
 
#56
#56
Nobody's even talking about projecting numbers for the purposes of determining ROY. Obviously there's no way to legitimately do that.
 
#57
#57
I really could not be less interested in who actually wins the ROY. I'm much more interested in the fact that the Braves have a rookie outfielder who's putting up some of the all-time best numbers by a 20/21 year old -- and that's including six weeks of terrible stats due to a thumb injury. If he'd been on the DL the whole time instead of playing through it there wouldn't even be a discussion about who the ROY of the year is.
 
#58
#58
Vercingetorix said:
I really could not be less interested in who actually wins the ROY. I'm much more interested in the fact that the Braves have a rookie outfielder who's putting up some of the all-time best numbers by a 20/21 year old -- and that's including six weeks of terrible stats due to a thumb injury. If he'd been on the DL the whole time instead of playing through it there wouldn't even be a discussion about who the ROY of the year is.
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But you can't just forget those games that he actually played injured or not and I doubt the voters will either as they shouldn't.
 
#59
#59
VOLinthaATL said:
But you can't just forget those games that he actually played injured or not and I doubt the voters will either as they shouldn't.
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I said I'm not that interested in who wins the award. I'm interested in what his production would be like without that injury because of what it implies about Heyward's future.
 
#61
#61
Vercingetorix said:
I said I'm not that interested in who wins the award. I'm interested in what his production would be like without that injury because of what it implies about Heyward's future.
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Which is my original point. Jay Bruce had better rookie numbers than Hank Aaron. I guess that means he'll be just as good.
 
#67
#67
GAVol said:
Not really . . . and if you account for ballpark effect and the HR rate then vs. now, not at all.
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Jay Bruce with an OPS+ (OPS expressed as a percentage of league average, with 100 being exactly league average) of 97 his rookie year. Aaron with an OPS+ of 104.

(Heyward with an OPS+ of 131.)
 
#68
#68
VOLinthaATL said:
My apologies for bothering you so much with this. Let me ask you as question. To the regualr baseball fan what do you think their answer would be if you said name the 5 most important offensive stats?

I'll be waiting.
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That's why discussing stuff like this with "regular fans" does not interest me. They get the basic gist of the game and stats, but they also think RBIs and Wins are the best way to judge a player. They can't get past those "ESPN" stats, which is only the surface of a player.
 
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