RPI Talk

#51
#51
Don't we need help from other teams? Lets say we go 4-1. What if that team we lose to ends up going 5-0 or even 4-1? It looks like Ole Miss, Alabama, and LSU are the only ones that could cause us problems making it, right? Even if they all go 4-1 they will have a better OVERALL record than us. Will that matter much?
 
#52
#52
JabberWocky said:
Solid insight. :good!: But... Question:

What if we go 5-0 finish at 18-12 and go 1-1 with the first round bye?

Do we NEED to win 2 SECT games if we can win out, or will winning out allow us only needing 1 SECT win with the BYE?
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That would put us on the bubble according to rpi forecast. You really wanna get 2 wins in new Orleans just because the teams rpi we will play will be decently high so it's a good boost, plus neutral site helps as well.

Just keep winning and things will work out.
 
#53
#53
I think the committee also takes into effect how a team is playing at season's end. A hot team playing their best ball of the year usually has dibbs over a team that has lost it's mojo and is struggling to the finish.
 
#54
#54
Rockytopman said:
I think the committee also takes into effect how a team is playing at season's end. A hot team playing their best ball of the year usually has dibbs over a team that has lost it's mojo and is struggling to the finish.
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They put ALOT of weight on the last 2 months. Not the whok season. That's a benefit to us.

And

They Also take into account how your team changed with addition/subtraction of players. This team is much different since stokes arrived and I expect them to put some weight on tht as well.
 
#55
#55
bleedingTNorange said:
going 4-1 finishing 17-13, and going 3-1 in sec t, we're at 20-14 and our projected rpi is 43 which is a lock.

if we go 5-0 finishing 18-12 and go 2-1 with first round bye, we're at 20-13 with rpi of 45 which is a lock.

if we go 4-1 finishing 17-13, and going 2-1 in sec t, we're at 19-14 with rpi projected at 55, also considered a lock.

if we go 4-1 finishing 17-13 and going 1-1 in sec t, we're at 18-14 with rpi projected at 75, putting us out of contention most likely.
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What did the site that does that does these RPI projections predict our RPI to be after last night?

I see where we moved 4 places and I wanted to know if that was in line with their projection.
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#56
#56
BruinVol said:
What did the site that does that does these RPI projections predict our RPI to be after last night?

I see where we moved 4 places and I wanted to know if that was in line with their projection.
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I honestly didn't even check before the game. I would have thought it be a bit more than 4 though I thought atleast around 8. Bama road win is gonna be needed along with lsu to really boost this rpi.
 
#57
#57
bleedingTNorange said:
I honestly didn't even check before the game. I would have thought it be a bit more than 4 though I thought atleast around 8. Bama road win is gonna be needed along with lsu to really boost this rpi.
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Agreed the road games are the real shot at improving RPI. I have thought those projections were a little to liberal and would have liked to have compared to see their accuracy after last night.

Win Saturday and count me in with the very interested crowd concerning the NCAA talk.
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#58
#58
BruinVol said:
Agreed the road games are the real shot at improving RPI. I have thought those projections were a little to liberal and would have liked to have compared to see their accuracy after last night.

Win Saturday and count me in with the very interested crowd concerning the NCAA talk.
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From my view they seem to be pretty accurate so far. Obviously the potential tourny rpi can differ up or down depending on who we happen to draw. My guess is they take the average rpi of the potential teams we'd face in the tourney fit each round but in really not sure. Just a guess.
 
#63
#63
The SEC's numbers are better this year than last year. And, 10 of Bama's 16 regular-season SEC games were against the former SEC West, while 10 of our games this season are against the former SEC East. So, the SEC is better, and we play two games each against the tougher half of the league. So us going 10-6 or 11-5 this season is worth more than Bama's 12-4 record last year.

Bama also lost 2 of its last 3 regular season games and then lost in the quarterfinals of the SECT. If we lose 2 of our last 3 and then lose in the quarterfinals, we'll miss the NCAAs too. But, if we close out strong, we'll have a better case than Bama had last year.
 
#66
#66
TBtheGBwiththeTD said:
Wouldn't it be terrific if UF were to win out;Take care of buisness then, win at Vandy, then beat UK at home? I honestly think that could give us a ridiculous boost.

#Daydreaming...
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Wouldn't hurt if Uconn went on a mega run and took the BE tournament! That would look pretty dang good too!
 
#67
#67
Alabama last year:

20-10 (12-4)
Rpi: 61
SOS: 95
8-4 in their last 12 including SEC T



Big thing is big east got 11 in last year, they'll probably get 8 this year.
 
#69
#69
I think it's a tad early to declare UConn as 'out.'
They were 21st in the RPI before yesterday.
 
#70
#70
ukvols said:
I think it's a tad early to declare UConn as 'out.'
They were 21st in the RPI before yesterday.
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They could come back yea but as of now lunardi doesn't even have them as first four out or next four out. And that guy is almost perfect when it comes to predicting teams.
 
#71
#71
I like our chances. I just can't wait to see 4 east teams getting a bye. Been pretty ridiculous lately.
 
#72
#72
In the end, you may be right about UConn.

But, I'm not a big fan of Lunardi's bracket. He pays little attention to possible Round of 32 matches when he draws a bracket. He regularly creates the possibility of a regular-season rematch in the Round of 32, which is on the Committee's list of things to try to avoid. So, his layout of a bracket is useless. Only the seeds he gives are interesting. And, in the final couple of weeks, teams seem to bounce back and forth between being the bottom four to get in and the best four to miss the field almost at random. If, at the beginning of Championship Week, you pay attention to every 4/4 list he gives and follow what the teams are actually doing in between his TV appearances, you'll wonder what the heck he's doing. That's been my take over the past few seasons. When it gets down to the last 24 hours, whatever he has is probably a great projection, but it wouldn't shock me if he has a link to the Committee room. Lunardi gets a lot of pub, but I'm honestly not impressed. I find ESPN's Bubble Watch page, which sometimes directly conflicts with Lunardi, to be far more useful.
 
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#73
#73
ukvols said:
In the end, you may be right about UConn.

But, I'm not a big fan of Lunardi's bracket. He pays little attention to possible Round of 32 matches when he draws a bracket. He regularly creates the possibility of a regular-season rematch in the Round of 32, which is on the Committee's list of things to try to avoid. So, his layout of a bracket is useless. Only the seeds he gives are interesting. And, in the final couple of weeks, teams seem to bounce back and forth between being the bottom four to get in and the best four to miss the field almost at random. If, at the beginning of Championship Week, you pay attention to every 4/4 list he gives and follow what the teams are actually doing in between his TV appearances, you'll wonder what the heck he's doing. That's been my take over the past few seasons. When it gets down to the list 24 hours, whatever he has is probably a great projection, but it wouldn't shock me if he has a link to the Committee room. Lunardi gets a lot of pub, but I'm honestly not impressed. I find ESPN's Bubble Watch page, which sometimes directly conflicts with Lunardi, to be far more useful.
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His final projection is usually hours before the show, and the only things he changes late are the final few in sometimes and that's because of conference tournaments many times. Go look at his projection th day before the selection show then compare it with the bracket hell hit almost everyone of the 68 teams dead on.

Theres a reason he makes the big bucks. I am pretty sure it's something crazy like he's missed 2 in the last 5 years or something. As you said sometimes seeding and matchups are way off, but the important part who's in who's out is usually dead on.

And back to the original point Uconn is nowhere to be found in his projections. It'd take a nice run from them to get it, we're better off with them missing.
 
#74
#74
I might post an analyis of Lunardi's movement over Championship Week just to make a point. I honestly give little weight to his opinion until the day before the Selection Show, when he's suddenly spot-on.
 
#75
#75
ukvols said:
I might post an analyis of Lunardi's movement over Championship Week just to make a point. I honestly give little weight to his opinion until the day before the Selection Show, when he's suddenly spot-on.
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Yes over championship week because a lot does change. Look at it a few hours before the show when all tournaments are over.

And he doesn't have a source in the committee, C'mon man.
 
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