MikeHamiltonFan
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Schedules are not finalized and a few potentially solid players may be added to current classes, but we know enough at this point to make some predictions about next season. We certainly know enough to evaluate who did well coaching wise last year.
I would love it if you guys responded by just quoting the portion below and editing in your own responses and predictions. Thanks for the conversations about bball, I enjoy them.
Southeastern
East Conf. W-L Tot. W-L
Kentucky 14-2 35-3
Coaching Grade, A-
Cal had one of the most talented college basketball teams in history and cannot get an A because of his pathetic coaching during the loss to West Virginia. A team as talented as his should have been adding to the legacy of UK tournament championships.
Prediction for Next Season
I think Kentucky will not win 14 SEC games, more like 11-12 next year, but strangely I think that could humble them enough that they work harder and go further in the NCAA's.
Vanderbilt 12-4 24-9
Coaching Grade, B
No way Stallings should have some of the L's he ended up with, particularly with his most talented team he has ever had. The loss to Western Kentucky in front of a few hundred in Nashville hurt the RPI and I think even may have hurt the seed ultimately in combination with not beating UK at home in the game they lost by 2 (losses to Illinois and Cincy were not bad at all). Losing to Murray State with the team they had was pathetic. Sweeping TN was the highlight for them.
Prediction for Next Season:
I would say that a similar season in terms of being in the top 25 and winning 25 games seems very possible. They should also do better in the tournament than a first round flameout. They have lots of great talent coming in, and Jenkins should be dramatically improved as a sophomore.
Tennessee 11-5 28-9
Coaching Grade, A
No way that with the turmoil Tennessee experienced in losing Tyler Smith and prior to that losing E-Man to a heart attack should have produced the deepest tourney run in school history. Tennessee beating Kansas meant something even though regular season games do not result in trophies. Bruce Pearl elevated the program to new heights, and he did it in part with a slower and much more defensive oriented halfcourt game that he was forced to run. We will see if he continues coaching that way when his personnel allows him to return to his preferred style. At the very least this should have shown him that you need to have the ability to play defense the way this team did towards the end of the year even as a back up to the style he prefers or you will get bounced in the tournament when you cannot dictate the pace.
Prediction for Next Year
I think TN will have around 25-26 wins and will not make as deep a run into the tournament. That does mean I do not believe Tobias Harris will be Carmelo Anthony his freshman year, but will be more like a Patrick Patterson. A Sweet 16 feeling like a disappointment should be a message loud and clear to our fan base that Pearl is spoiling us with success.
Florida 9-7 21-13
Coaching grade, B-
Billy D has to shoulder some of the burden for ending up with a team that had all their interior toughness coming from a guy who he got through transfer. They flashed brilliance early against Florida State in particular and had a great resume win against Michigan State but they lacked toughness, something that has plagued him since his last national championship.
Prediction for Next Season
Florida should take a big step forward. It would not be a surprise to see them in the top 10 for a good portion of the season. 26-28 wins are very possible. They are adding 3 strong freshmen to the front court. They also get Mike Rosario who is a very talented transfer addition from the Big East.
South Carolina 6-10 15-16
Coaching job, C-
Darrin Horn lost his starting frontcourt for most of the season to injury. It forced him to rely on Downey in a way that did not produce great results. A loss to Wofford was an embarrassment to the conference. Losing to Georgia and Alabama twice was just a bitter way to end the season.
Prediction for Next Season
Unlike many on here who say without Downey that they will be worse than this past year, I am sure they will have a better record. They have a top 25 class coming in, and like Purdue getting back players from injury, they will be improved greatly in depth. I think they will end up with around 20 wins and will not embarrass us against small schools. Damontre Harris and Bruce Ellington are top 100 players who will contribute immediately.
Georgia 5-11 14-17
Coaching Grade C+
How can you do worse than Horn and have a higher grade? I think Fox did really well with what he had. He should not on paper have ever been able to beat some of the OOC teams he beat, particularly Ga Tech.
Prediction for Next Season
They trended in a positive way to end the year and return some NBA talent. I think they will end up still around 20 wins, 18-22 seems like a reasonable range. Athens will not be an easy place for anyone to win.
West Conf. W-L Tot. W-L
Mississippi 9-7 24-11
Coaching grade, B+
If you beat Arkansas you are likely in the tournament, if they beat TN (in a game they let get away from them) and Arkansas they are certainly in. Great talent on that team, lots of it is gone.
Prediction for Next Season
They should fall back, maybe even significantly to the tune of 6 less wins or so. Dundrecous Nelson is a very strong pickup, and DeMarco Cox looks like a strong center, but they lost too much to the draft. If all their players stayed, they could easily be preseason top 10. Without it, I would be impressed if they can make the tournament.
Mississippi St. 9-7 24-12
Coaching Job B-
Of course losing at the end of the year and not getting into the tournament was horrible, but they missed the tournament literally by less than a second with the UK put back in the SECT Championship. Losing to Rider, Richmond and Western Kentucky is unacceptable. Richmond is the most acceptable loss there, if you win the other two, you make the tournament without a doubt in my mind. Losing to a terrible Auburn team late in the year during the time you needed every W was also pathetic.
Prediction
If Jalen Steele is awesome, there will be lots of crying about not keeping him at home. MS State's season will come down to this (NCAA fines Renardo Sidney, rules him ineligible - Los Angeles Times) will a 21 year old Renardo Sidney playing as a grown man trying to get drafted and become a millionaire be able to take them on his back to the NCAA tournament? The answer I think may well be yes. Sidney will not be available for the first 1/3 of the year so another big question is how the team will work when he joins up after being gone and how long it will take him to get used to playing again.
Arkansas 7-9 14-18
Coaching Job C
Another of Billy D's assistants, Pelphrey was in a corner in terms of losing guys only comparable to Pearl. He had 4 rapists. Morgan State, ETSU and South Alabama beat his depleted squad and embarrassed the SEC badly.
Prediction
Rickey Scott will combine with a team that does not have half of its starters suspended and the Razorbacks will have a very successful start to the season. They will beat badly the easy OOC teams that beat them last year, and then they will stumble in the SEC. I see them missing the NCAA's after losing to improved squads like LSU and I think Pelphrey will have a better overall record but a VERY hot seat by the end of the SECT unless he can get crazy hot and win it.
Alabama 6-10 17-15
Coaching Job D
I am amazed at the regard some had for Grants job this season. In my mind he pulled a Paul Hewitt, taking what I thought was very strong talent, and sucking when it mattered. Beating Baylor hinted at great things to come, and then they just fell apart. The injury to Steele can be partly blamed, but I was not impressed with the first year in the SEC for Billy D's former right hand man.
Prediction
Will Trevor Releford and Jason Carter take their awesome ability and contribute right away or will Grant have another bad season? I am going to say they take a small step forward in wins, and keep the momentum of the end of the year in the SEC. Still not ready to see them as an NCAA tournament team, but 8 wins in the SEC is possible.
Auburn 6-10 15-17
Coaching Job F
F is for fired.
Prediction for next season:
Really hard to know. Sean Kemp (nice bball name) should upgrade the C immediately and Luke Cothron although some on here are down on him should be a guy who can help you in the SEC even as a freshman. The coaching should also be better with what was there before. Does that mean a Buzz P to Bruce P kind of turnaround? I highly doubt it. But 8 SEC wins and 18 wins overall is very possible.
LSU 2-14 11-20
Coaching Job C
The man was playing 3 walkons significant minutes. He has now kicked them off the team along with the second leading scorer.
Prediction for Next Season
Should be most improved team in the conference and it should not be close. When you have very few talented players and you add 4 guys who are top 150 HS players in one class, you should see results immediately. 18 wins seems likely but not enough SEC wins to get in the tournament.
Final Prediction:
Because I believe the SEC will be dramatically improved in many ways, I believe it will have more OOC wins, and a higher conference RPI. 9 conference wins unlike last season should get teams into the NCAA tournament. By January 1 2011, people should have a pretty high opinion of our conference in basketball, lots of the players in the 5 top 25 recruiting classes should be shining brightly and I should be on here arguing with people that the Big 10 is not as good (despite greatness from Purdue and Michigan State, possibly Ohio State and Illinois).
I would love it if you guys responded by just quoting the portion below and editing in your own responses and predictions. Thanks for the conversations about bball, I enjoy them.
Southeastern
East Conf. W-L Tot. W-L
Kentucky 14-2 35-3
Coaching Grade, A-
Cal had one of the most talented college basketball teams in history and cannot get an A because of his pathetic coaching during the loss to West Virginia. A team as talented as his should have been adding to the legacy of UK tournament championships.
Prediction for Next Season
I think Kentucky will not win 14 SEC games, more like 11-12 next year, but strangely I think that could humble them enough that they work harder and go further in the NCAA's.
Vanderbilt 12-4 24-9
Coaching Grade, B
No way Stallings should have some of the L's he ended up with, particularly with his most talented team he has ever had. The loss to Western Kentucky in front of a few hundred in Nashville hurt the RPI and I think even may have hurt the seed ultimately in combination with not beating UK at home in the game they lost by 2 (losses to Illinois and Cincy were not bad at all). Losing to Murray State with the team they had was pathetic. Sweeping TN was the highlight for them.
Prediction for Next Season:
I would say that a similar season in terms of being in the top 25 and winning 25 games seems very possible. They should also do better in the tournament than a first round flameout. They have lots of great talent coming in, and Jenkins should be dramatically improved as a sophomore.
Tennessee 11-5 28-9
Coaching Grade, A
No way that with the turmoil Tennessee experienced in losing Tyler Smith and prior to that losing E-Man to a heart attack should have produced the deepest tourney run in school history. Tennessee beating Kansas meant something even though regular season games do not result in trophies. Bruce Pearl elevated the program to new heights, and he did it in part with a slower and much more defensive oriented halfcourt game that he was forced to run. We will see if he continues coaching that way when his personnel allows him to return to his preferred style. At the very least this should have shown him that you need to have the ability to play defense the way this team did towards the end of the year even as a back up to the style he prefers or you will get bounced in the tournament when you cannot dictate the pace.
Prediction for Next Year
I think TN will have around 25-26 wins and will not make as deep a run into the tournament. That does mean I do not believe Tobias Harris will be Carmelo Anthony his freshman year, but will be more like a Patrick Patterson. A Sweet 16 feeling like a disappointment should be a message loud and clear to our fan base that Pearl is spoiling us with success.
Florida 9-7 21-13
Coaching grade, B-
Billy D has to shoulder some of the burden for ending up with a team that had all their interior toughness coming from a guy who he got through transfer. They flashed brilliance early against Florida State in particular and had a great resume win against Michigan State but they lacked toughness, something that has plagued him since his last national championship.
Prediction for Next Season
Florida should take a big step forward. It would not be a surprise to see them in the top 10 for a good portion of the season. 26-28 wins are very possible. They are adding 3 strong freshmen to the front court. They also get Mike Rosario who is a very talented transfer addition from the Big East.
South Carolina 6-10 15-16
Coaching job, C-
Darrin Horn lost his starting frontcourt for most of the season to injury. It forced him to rely on Downey in a way that did not produce great results. A loss to Wofford was an embarrassment to the conference. Losing to Georgia and Alabama twice was just a bitter way to end the season.
Prediction for Next Season
Unlike many on here who say without Downey that they will be worse than this past year, I am sure they will have a better record. They have a top 25 class coming in, and like Purdue getting back players from injury, they will be improved greatly in depth. I think they will end up with around 20 wins and will not embarrass us against small schools. Damontre Harris and Bruce Ellington are top 100 players who will contribute immediately.
Georgia 5-11 14-17
Coaching Grade C+
How can you do worse than Horn and have a higher grade? I think Fox did really well with what he had. He should not on paper have ever been able to beat some of the OOC teams he beat, particularly Ga Tech.
Prediction for Next Season
They trended in a positive way to end the year and return some NBA talent. I think they will end up still around 20 wins, 18-22 seems like a reasonable range. Athens will not be an easy place for anyone to win.
West Conf. W-L Tot. W-L
Mississippi 9-7 24-11
Coaching grade, B+
If you beat Arkansas you are likely in the tournament, if they beat TN (in a game they let get away from them) and Arkansas they are certainly in. Great talent on that team, lots of it is gone.
Prediction for Next Season
They should fall back, maybe even significantly to the tune of 6 less wins or so. Dundrecous Nelson is a very strong pickup, and DeMarco Cox looks like a strong center, but they lost too much to the draft. If all their players stayed, they could easily be preseason top 10. Without it, I would be impressed if they can make the tournament.
Mississippi St. 9-7 24-12
Coaching Job B-
Of course losing at the end of the year and not getting into the tournament was horrible, but they missed the tournament literally by less than a second with the UK put back in the SECT Championship. Losing to Rider, Richmond and Western Kentucky is unacceptable. Richmond is the most acceptable loss there, if you win the other two, you make the tournament without a doubt in my mind. Losing to a terrible Auburn team late in the year during the time you needed every W was also pathetic.
Prediction
If Jalen Steele is awesome, there will be lots of crying about not keeping him at home. MS State's season will come down to this (NCAA fines Renardo Sidney, rules him ineligible - Los Angeles Times) will a 21 year old Renardo Sidney playing as a grown man trying to get drafted and become a millionaire be able to take them on his back to the NCAA tournament? The answer I think may well be yes. Sidney will not be available for the first 1/3 of the year so another big question is how the team will work when he joins up after being gone and how long it will take him to get used to playing again.
Arkansas 7-9 14-18
Coaching Job C
Another of Billy D's assistants, Pelphrey was in a corner in terms of losing guys only comparable to Pearl. He had 4 rapists. Morgan State, ETSU and South Alabama beat his depleted squad and embarrassed the SEC badly.
Prediction
Rickey Scott will combine with a team that does not have half of its starters suspended and the Razorbacks will have a very successful start to the season. They will beat badly the easy OOC teams that beat them last year, and then they will stumble in the SEC. I see them missing the NCAA's after losing to improved squads like LSU and I think Pelphrey will have a better overall record but a VERY hot seat by the end of the SECT unless he can get crazy hot and win it.
Alabama 6-10 17-15
Coaching Job D
I am amazed at the regard some had for Grants job this season. In my mind he pulled a Paul Hewitt, taking what I thought was very strong talent, and sucking when it mattered. Beating Baylor hinted at great things to come, and then they just fell apart. The injury to Steele can be partly blamed, but I was not impressed with the first year in the SEC for Billy D's former right hand man.
Prediction
Will Trevor Releford and Jason Carter take their awesome ability and contribute right away or will Grant have another bad season? I am going to say they take a small step forward in wins, and keep the momentum of the end of the year in the SEC. Still not ready to see them as an NCAA tournament team, but 8 wins in the SEC is possible.
Auburn 6-10 15-17
Coaching Job F
F is for fired.
Prediction for next season:
Really hard to know. Sean Kemp (nice bball name) should upgrade the C immediately and Luke Cothron although some on here are down on him should be a guy who can help you in the SEC even as a freshman. The coaching should also be better with what was there before. Does that mean a Buzz P to Bruce P kind of turnaround? I highly doubt it. But 8 SEC wins and 18 wins overall is very possible.
LSU 2-14 11-20
Coaching Job C
The man was playing 3 walkons significant minutes. He has now kicked them off the team along with the second leading scorer.
Prediction for Next Season
Should be most improved team in the conference and it should not be close. When you have very few talented players and you add 4 guys who are top 150 HS players in one class, you should see results immediately. 18 wins seems likely but not enough SEC wins to get in the tournament.
Final Prediction:
Because I believe the SEC will be dramatically improved in many ways, I believe it will have more OOC wins, and a higher conference RPI. 9 conference wins unlike last season should get teams into the NCAA tournament. By January 1 2011, people should have a pretty high opinion of our conference in basketball, lots of the players in the 5 top 25 recruiting classes should be shining brightly and I should be on here arguing with people that the Big 10 is not as good (despite greatness from Purdue and Michigan State, possibly Ohio State and Illinois).
