seeing a lot of N.C. State love from the bookies.

#29
#29
mudhen said:
Now that the line is heading up to 10-10.5 on the online sites, the talking heads are now saying take N.C. and the points. and admittedly 10 is a lot. They're all talking about State's defense, but I still believe that we are gonna boat race those people.
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Those 19 players on Defense are going to wear down with Tennessee's fast pace. Forget about it. Tenn has the advantage at ever position (maybe 1-2 even) Vols by 20.
 
#30
#30
EZE said:
Fuller was terrible at covering spreads as a favorite. Utterly dreadful.

Heupel is just the opposite. He usually is money (nobody is 100%) in games like this one as long as the other team hasn’t received our signals through backdoor channels.

I’d bet significant money on the Vols even at 10 to 10.5. I really liked the bet when the spread was under a TD.
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Fuller wet the bed in Home Alone.
 
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#32
#32
As much as my vol heart tells me this will be a vol blowout, it will probably be more like us playing Pittsburg. I hope I’m wrong - we stopped ourselves against Pitt multiple times both years with mistakes.
 
#34
#34
unfrozencvmanvol said:
All the bookies want is equal money on both sides. No less, no more.
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equal money bets for a bookies may seem like a perfect world scenario but not sure how often that occurs or if it does at all. sure bookies want the vig but they don't make their money from the vig, they make their money from bettors who lose more often than they win and that's your general bettor. saying that all they want is equal money is naive.
 
#36
#36
Sarms58 said:
As much as my vol heart tells me this will be a vol blowout, it will probably be more like us playing Pittsburg. I hope I’m wrong - we stopped ourselves against Pitt multiple times both years with mistakes.
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State doesn’t have anything resembling Pitt’s defensive line in ‘22.
 
#38
#38
WillisWG said:
equal money bets for a bookies may seem like a perfect world scenario but not sure how often that occurs or if it does at all. sure bookies want the vig but they don't make their money from the vig, they make their money from bettors who lose more often than they win and that's your general bettor. saying that all they want is equal money is naive.
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Professional bookies make their money off the vig. College campus bookies and other amateurs can't balance their lines because they don't have enough action and most of them end up broke anyway. Balancing their bets is 100% what Vegas does in most cases.
 
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#40
#40
B
Sarms58 said:
As much as my vol heart tells me this will be a vol blowout, it will probably be more like us playing Pittsburg. I hope I’m wrong - we stopped ourselves against Pitt multiple times both years with mistakes.
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i...but we Didn't , DIDN'T, DIDN'T have Nico
 
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#41
#41
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Professional bookies make their money off the vig. College campus bookies and other amateurs can't balance their lines because they don't have enough action and most of them end up broke anyway. Balancing their bets is 100% what Vegas does in most cases.
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"As of today nearly three-quarters of the bets taken at BetMGM have backed Tennessee, including 80% of the money, pushing the line to -10 for part of Friday before returning to -9.5. ..."

PB try to balance their bets yep but 100% balanced no. BetMGM is lopsided on the Tennessee game in a big way, it highly like that the other books are also out of balance as well and there will not be many, if any takers on layoffs for this game. Again books make money on the vig only if the line is balanced, books make their money on average bettors because the average bettor lose money in the long run.
 
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#42
#42
Bookies WANT you to take that +10.5 & feel safe.
That's how they make money. Jack up the line just before the game, they know UT is going to run all over NC St.
They'll happily take your money.
 
#44
#44
WillisWG said:
"As of today nearly three-quarters of the bets taken at BetMGM have backed Tennessee, including 80% of the money, pushing the line to -10 for part of Friday before returning to -9.5. ..."

PB try to balance their bets yep but 100% balanced no. BetMGM is lopsided on the Tennessee game in a big way, it highly like that the other books are also out of balance as well and there will not be many, if any takers on layoffs for this game. Again books make money on the vig only if the line is balanced, books make their money on average bettors because the average bettor lose money in the long run.
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Well, if you're "average" in betting you lose because you always pay the vig. If you make 10 bets for $100 and win 5 and lose 5 the house wins. All these stats they put out about where the money is going and who the "sharp money" is on and so forth are just manipulations of bettors. They are always trying to even up the money, that's the winning business model at booking and that's what built that city.
 
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#45
#45
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Well, if you're "average" in betting you lose because you always pay the vig. If you make 10 bets for $100 and win 5 and lose 5 the house wins. All these stats they put out about where the money is going and who the "sharp money" is on and so forth are just manipulations of bettors. They are always trying to even up the money, that's the winning business model at booking and that's what built that city.
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there is truth in saying "They are always trying to even up the money" but the reality that isn't always possible.

No reason to take this any further...we just disagree
 
#47
#47
Vols could be favored by 17 and I think taking Vols would be easy money still lol. They’re just desperate to get people to take Nc State at this point
 
#50
#50
Hulavol said:
Yep- I posted this in the other thread, but people who have been around pointspreads a few decades will know what I’m saying - when a line moves this much - this is exceedingly rare mind you - six full points in five days- it’s uncanny how often the heavy underdog gets a BS last minute back door cover- a meaningless garbage time TD against the third string.
To avoid this, UT bettors hope the Vols are up by at least 18 with the ball- in the last two minutes.

This is also the “unicorn” situation for a lot of players too- they get a shot at an exceedingly rare -more than four point -middle.
This means they have a chunk of money on the Vols - 4.5 or 5.5, and now they can put that same amount on NCSU +10.5 or 11, and they’ve got free no risk shot - and a real good shot with this big of a spread - of hitting the coveted middle - that is the Vols win by say 6. They win both bets and get a double payday without risking anything.
So with that in mind, the money will pour in very late on NCSU from those holding the original Vols -5 or 6 or whatever, and the line will stabilize and stop soaring. Hasn’t happened yet, and folks holding those early Vols tickets are drooling.
Now, will it actually middle ? Doubtful- statistically, these hitting are rare- but this spread is so big there’s about as good of a chance of it happening as possible. All that typed…. UT will probably crush them, or win by a FG.
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How is it no risk when betteting both sides?
 
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