I am watching the playoffs and, like everyone else, watching the SEC drop like flies. Texas, who wasn't even in the SEC this time last year, is our only saving grace. We've seen wilder things this season. Vandy beating Bama. Ark beating us. etc. The playoff is not being dominated by the SEC as we would have imagined at the beginning of the season. We didn't even dominate the number of teams from one conference in the playoff. What's up with that?
I believe that we are seeing a permanent shift in the football landscape. One where the SEC isn't head and shoulders above the rest. More than 50% of the National Champions from the last 20 years are from the SEC. Our reputation was well earned.
The NIL era is going to level the playing field. Not every backwater team will have success, but the days of the biggest powerhouse teams dominating the conversation are on the wain. The transfer portal is going to keep teams from hoarding talent. If you're a starter for an unknown team, you can get recognized by bigger schools and transfer in. If you're a top recruit that finds yourself buried in a depth chart, you can find a slightly less talented team and become a starter, turning them into contenders. If you're a top player that is a starter, you can go where the money takes you. The SEC was where you wanted to go to play if you wanted the best shot at a championship. Now championships take a backseat to immediate money. In the Saban era, 5* players would ride the bench because they statistically stood a certainty to win a ring while they were there. Bear Bryant would recruit players he didn't even want to keep them from playing on other teams. Now players won't wait. They want playing time.......now. How can you ask for more NIL money if you aren't on the field?
The reality is that teams from regions where they don't have competition for NIL donors is going to thrive. Teams in economically strapped areas will not likely be competitive. states with deep pockets like Texas, Florida, California, Michigan, etc will always be good. Places like Arkansas, Nebraska, the Carolinas etc will always be squeezed for cash. Even take a state like Alabama and ask, " how does a smaller less affluent state like that support 2 major programs with enough NIL money to be contenders?" I don't think they can in the long run. Look how quickly Bama fell off already. Over the next 4-5 years teams will get by on depth of fan base and the power of their brand name. But as we go a few more years, and the teams lose their luster, the money machine will slow down. All those bandwagon Bama fans that sprung up all over the country aren't donors.
Ultimately, over the next 5 years, we are going to see parity in college football. We will go from 10-15 teams being legit contenders every year, to something more akin to the wild, wild west. Teams will need to be just good enough to get into the playoff. Then it's a crap shoot. The era of teams like Bama/Georgia/Clemson creating dynasties are over.
