Seismic shift in the college football landscape

[volbound1700]

No they don't. Clemson isn't in the playoff except for the CCG win, and neither is ASU. The two SEC and Big 10 teams will both always already be playoff teams, but seeding can be affected in the CCG's. Why should teams that would have been ranked #9 and #12 be rewarded with byes?

It made the event ridiculous because it penalized the (at the time) best team and #1 seed, and rewarded the two CCG losers with free rides into the semis due to facing inferior 'conference champs'.

If the goal is placating lesser conferences, then leave it as it is. But if the goal is rewarding the strongest teams and having the best event, then those auto byes have to be eliminated.

It won't happen because all that matters in this world is $$$ but we really don't need the Conference Championship games anymore and they should get rid of them. They only work when you have divisions.

 

[sami]

I have never understood the whole I like the SEC and want it to be successful crowd. Why would you want any team besides TN to win?

At least speaking for myself, it isn't a 'love for the SEC', it's a resentment of this narrative of national media and the "committee" desperate to downplay what is a far superior football league in favor of a league with one great program, a few decent ones, and a ton of dreck.

I resent the implication that Penn State and Indiana played schedules anywhere in the stratosphere of the meat grinder SEC teams deal with every season, and especially now with parity upon us. Playing road games at places like USCe, A&M, Oklahoma, UF, Missouri, LSU, and Ole Miss are a far cry from Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Minnesota.

I don't give a rat's ass about any other SEC school, but I don't like seeing the narrative of governing bodies that decide things like rankings for playoffs controlled by people with a bias that downplays the kind of football played here.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

They have a lot of money and, I believe, the strongest NIL in the SEC. Both Texas teams are 1 and 2 on NIL.

Coaching makes a difference.

 

[sami]

It won't happen because all that matters in this world is $$$ but we really don't need the Conference Championship games anymore and they should get rid of them. They only work when you have divisions.

Totally agree, they are here to stay. And check this article out - it is highly likely that there will be no changes next year because you need the agreement of G5 representatives to eliminate the auto byes, which will obviously never happen.

The 12-team playoff and CCG's, like everything else today, was never about being "good for CFB" or anything else but the almighty dollar. The golden rule, which to my knowledge has not been broken in the last 30-40 years, is that no policy or rule change in pro or big time college sports will ever be made where revenue enhancement is not the primary (and often only) consideration.

“We’re still in a period where it has to be unanimous. So, we’re talking about Group of 5 commissioners – including the Mountain West, where you’ve got Boise State not only in it but with a first-round bye – conceding that possibly. I don’t think that’s going to happen, so my sources are telling me changes for next year (are) probably unlikely.”

College Football Playoff seeding changes 'unlikely' next year, per ESPN insider

The College Football Playoff is unlikely to change its seeding format for next season, despite numerous calls from fans and media members.

www.saturdaydownsouth.com

 

[volbound1700]

At least speaking for myself, it isn't a 'love for the SEC', it's a resentment of this narrative of national media and the "committee" desperate to downplay what is a far superior football league in favor of a league with one great program, a few decent ones, and a ton of dreck.

I resent the implication that Penn State and Indiana played schedules anywhere in the stratosphere of the meat grinder SEC teams deal with every season, and especially now with parity upon us. Playing road games at places like USCe, A&M, Oklahoma, UF, Missouri, LSU, and Ole Miss are a far cry from Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, UCLA, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Minnesota.

I don't give a rat's ass about any other SEC school, but I don't like seeing the narrative of governing bodies that decide things like rankings for playoffs controlled by people with a bias that downplays the kind of football played here.

I pointed this out but a lot of it relates to the disrespect of the SEC in the 1980s and 1990s. When ESPN first came along, they were all over the B1G, although it was primarily these media darlings: Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Southern Cal. To a lesser extent Miami, Texas, and Florida State.

Tennessee has 0 Heismans despite producing players like Johnny Majors, Doug Atkins, Reggie White, Peyton Manning, etc. Alabama had 0 Heismans prior to Saban despite all the athletes from the Bear Bryant, Gene Stallings, and other eras in their history.

SEC teams often got overlooked or ranked lower than they should be in the Bowl Alliance system and sometimes SEC teams were probably outright robbed for shots at the title like 1993 Auburn, 1989 Tennessee, 2004 Auburn, etc. (Probably more than that but they are not on the list).

SEC teams also got no love going into big matchups. 1985 Miami was supposed to kill Tennessee but they won 35-7 and then 1992 Alabama was huge underdog against Miami, again, but stomped them. I think the 1992 Alabama vs Miami game may have been the origin of the SEC chant.

Now everything started to change in 2006 when Florida whipped Ohio State in the Title game. This is where the SEC started to get the national narrative that they were the "best" from the media. Prior to that, it was mostly the fans pushing it.

 

[1974Vol]

I am watching the playoffs and, like everyone else, watching the SEC drop like flies. Texas, who wasn't even in the SEC this time last year, is our only saving grace. We've seen wilder things this season. Vandy beating Bama. Ark beating us. etc. The playoff is not being dominated by the SEC as we would have imagined at the beginning of the season. We didn't even dominate the number of teams from one conference in the playoff. What's up with that?
I believe that we are seeing a permanent shift in the football landscape. One where the SEC isn't head and shoulders above the rest. More than 50% of the National Champions from the last 20 years are from the SEC. Our reputation was well earned.
The NIL era is going to level the playing field. Not every backwater team will have success, but the days of the biggest powerhouse teams dominating the conversation are on the wain. The transfer portal is going to keep teams from hoarding talent. If you're a starter for an unknown team, you can get recognized by bigger schools and transfer in. If you're a top recruit that finds yourself buried in a depth chart, you can find a slightly less talented team and become a starter, turning them into contenders. If you're a top player that is a starter, you can go where the money takes you. The SEC was where you wanted to go to play if you wanted the best shot at a championship. Now championships take a backseat to immediate money. In the Saban era, 5* players would ride the bench because they statistically stood a certainty to win a ring while they were there. Bear Bryant would recruit players he didn't even want to keep them from playing on other teams. Now players won't wait. They want playing time.......now. How can you ask for more NIL money if you aren't on the field?
The reality is that teams from regions where they don't have competition for NIL donors is going to thrive. Teams in economically strapped areas will not likely be competitive. states with deep pockets like Texas, Florida, California, Michigan, etc will always be good. Places like Arkansas, Nebraska, the Carolinas etc will always be squeezed for cash. Even take a state like Alabama and ask, " how does a smaller less affluent state like that support 2 major programs with enough NIL money to be contenders?" I don't think they can in the long run. Look how quickly Bama fell off already. Over the next 4-5 years teams will get by on depth of fan base and the power of their brand name. But as we go a few more years, and the teams lose their luster, the money machine will slow down. All those bandwagon Bama fans that sprung up all over the country aren't donors.

Ultimately, over the next 5 years, we are going to see parity in college football. We will go from 10-15 teams being legit contenders every year, to something more akin to the wild, wild west. Teams will need to be just good enough to get into the playoff. Then it's a crap shoot. The era of teams like Bama/Georgia/Clemson creating dynasties are over.

Money of course will be extremely important, but what will be even more important is player evaluation. As you say, you won't be able to keep HS 4 & 5 stars on the bench they'll transfer. The question then becomes which ones are worth the money and which ones aren't. The players are also finding and out and will continue to do so that the portal and NIL door swings both ways. Most schools will be evaluating EVERYONE on the roster at the end of the year going forward and you may not have a spot. We'll probably never know for sure, but that is probably what happened with our DB room last year, and our WR room this year. You don't produce to the level of your NIL deal you're gone. Saw where at least half the D-1 kids in the portal won't find a D-1 home. This whole thing is and is going to get tougher and more transactional. Welcome to professional college football.

 

[sami]

I pointed this out but a lot of it relates to the disrespect of the SEC in the 1980s and 1990s. When ESPN first came along, they were all over the B1G, although it was primarily these media darlings: Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Southern Cal. To a lesser extent Miami, Texas, and Florida State.

Tennessee has 0 Heismans despite producing players like Johnny Majors, Doug Atkins, Reggie White, Peyton Manning, etc. Alabama had 0 Heismans prior to Saban despite all the athletes from the Bear Bryant, Gene Stallings, and other eras in their history.

SEC teams often got overlooked or ranked lower than they should be in the Bowl Alliance system and sometimes SEC teams were probably outright robbed for shots at the title like 1993 Auburn, 1989 Tennessee, 2004 Auburn, etc. (Probably more than that but they are not on the list).

SEC teams also got no love going into big matchups. 1985 Miami was supposed to kill Tennessee but they won 35-7 and then 1992 Alabama was huge underdog against Miami, again, but stomped them. I think the 1992 Alabama vs Miami game may have been the origin of the SEC chant.

Now everything started to change in 2006 when Florida whipped Ohio State in the Title game. This is where the SEC started to get the national narrative that they were the "best" from the media. Prior to that, it was mostly the fans pushing it.

Great points, and I completely agree. The funny thing is that the SEC earned that unofficial "best conference" title over the last couple of decades by dominating whatever system the CFP was at the time.

I think a huge emphasis with this playoff was to cut the SEC down at the knees with the auto byes for conference champs and the sudden switch away from strength of schedule to the heretofore unheard of "strength of record" to prop up mediocre Big 10 schools. Having the "committee" dominated with northern representatives and with the national media pounding away at this narrative helped get this done.

They will never go with a straight ranking system in the CFP unless the ranking parameters are changed to downplay the overall strength of depth that the SEC clearly possesses.

I hate the idiotic idea of auto bids for conferences that Sankey is pushing because to me it is a joke that the Big 10 should automatically get as many as the SEC, but he has already sold us down the river in his lust to get to the Big media markets controlled by the Big 10.

 

[hUTch2002]

I don't get this Big 10 love the national media is desperately pushing and people are actually buying into. The Big 10 is Ohio State, a couple of good programs who can beat up on bad schedules (Oregon, Penn State), a few more decent ones (Illinois, USC, Michigan, maybe Indiana and Nebraska), and a whole lot of dreck.

Indiana and Oregon were exposed, and Penn State is only still playing due to getting the two weakest teams in the playoff. This idea of pretending that this year proved that the Big 10 is on the same level as, or "surpassed" the SEC, is utterly absurd.

But that's the power of national media narratives when they are hammered home over and over, I suppose.

Oh, I agree with you. That doesn't mean it will always be true though. All things are cyclical, well accept squares and triangles. Now that I think of it, many things aren't.

 

[Boca Vol]

The results we're seeing in the CFP this year is similar to the previous 10 years with the 4-team format. 60% of the games in the 4-team playoffs were 3+ score games.

This year, 50% of the games have been 3+ score games & 7 out 8 games being 2+ score games.

The parity may come, but it hasn't arrived yet.

 

[VolBallGuy]

Well when the refs are getting paid off with regularity like the incredibly transparent corrupt no call on the key Texas blatant targeting hit, it’s all up for grabs for anyone with the cash.

 

[sami]

Well when the refs are getting paid off with regularity like the incredibly transparent corrupt no call on the key Texas blatant targeting hit, it’s all up for grabs for anyone with the cash.

I'm not generally big on the 'refs being paid off' narrative as I think most of it is complete incompetence, but that was as blatant an attempt to determine an outcome at a critical point in a game as I can remember. No one - no one - believed that wasn't as clear a case of targeting as you could ever find, meeting every alleged criteria. And the lackey announcers and media brushed by it afterward like it never happened.

 

[volbound1700]

Great points, and I completely agree. The funny thing is that the SEC earned that unofficial "best conference" title over the last couple of decades by dominating whatever system the CFP was at the time.

I think a huge emphasis with this playoff was to cut the SEC down at the knees with the auto byes for conference champs and the sudden switch away from strength of schedule to the heretofore unheard of "strength of record" to prop up mediocre Big 10 schools. Having the "committee" dominated with northern representatives and with the national media pounding away at this narrative helped get this done.

They will never go with a straight ranking system in the CFP unless the ranking parameters are changed to downplay the overall strength of depth that the SEC clearly possesses.

I hate the idiotic idea of auto bids for conferences that Sankey is pushing because to me it is a joke that the Big 10 should automatically get as many as the SEC, but he has already sold us down the river in his lust to get to the Big media markets controlled by the Big 10.

It needs to be based on rankings. I do think the big 4 conferences should get an autobid (not autobye like what happened this year).

At this point, the SEC argument seems silly since you really only have 2 leagues and both are going to be well represented in post season. SEC also gets plenty of media love. Alabama is now a media darling due to the Saban era and frankly, gets the same love that Michigan and Notre Dame used to get. I don't think Alabama back in the 1990s got that love like they do today.

 

[VolPack22]

I would rather have competitive semifinal and final games than competitive first round games. I would rather see a conference champion Clemson in over a weak Bama team. If that isn’t serious enough for you, then so be it.

Clemson and Alabama were both weak this year so not sure that’s a sticking point with you

 

[volbound1700]

Totally agree, they are here to stay. And check this article out - it is highly likely that there will be no changes next year because you need the agreement of G5 representatives to eliminate the auto byes, which will obviously never happen.

The 12-team playoff and CCG's, like everything else today, was never about being "good for CFB" or anything else but the almighty dollar. The golden rule, which to my knowledge has not been broken in the last 30-40 years, is that no policy or rule change in pro or big time college sports will ever be made where revenue enhancement is not the primary (and often only) consideration.

“We’re still in a period where it has to be unanimous. So, we’re talking about Group of 5 commissioners – including the Mountain West, where you’ve got Boise State not only in it but with a first-round bye – conceding that possibly. I don’t think that’s going to happen, so my sources are telling me changes for next year (are) probably unlikely.”

College Football Playoff seeding changes 'unlikely' next year, per ESPN insider

The College Football Playoff is unlikely to change its seeding format for next season, despite numerous calls from fans and media members.

www.saturdaydownsouth.com

Yeah, G5 is the problem. They really don't belong in the top division of CFB in my opinion. I can drive 30 minutes to Murfreesboro on a Saturday and watch a MTSU game and then go the next Saturday to Tennessee. The two are NOT comparable. Heck, even Vanderbilt games have more energy than MTSU games.

Those teams are just not on the same playing field. It is like having 5A High School teams in the same league as 1A High School teams.

Boise State as a #3 seed was a travesty (they should have been in). I also think the committee put too much energy into not counting the Championship Game against the loser. In some instances, they should have like with Ohio State vs Penn State. No reason for Penn State to be ahead of Ohio State when both had 2 losses and Ohio State beat them in their home stadium. At some point, the actual games on the field should matter than the records.

 

[xpsyclonex2002]

Money of course will be extremely important, but what will be even more important is player evaluation. As you say, you won't be able to keep HS 4 & 5 stars on the bench they'll transfer. The question then becomes which ones are worth the money and which ones aren't. The players are also finding and out and will continue to do so that the portal and NIL door swings both ways. Most schools will be evaluating EVERYONE on the roster at the end of the year going forward and you may not have a spot. We'll probably never know for sure, but that is probably what happened with our DB room last year, and our WR room this year. You don't produce to the level of your NIL deal you're gone. Saw where at least half the D-1 kids in the portal won't find a D-1 home. This whole thing is and is going to get tougher and more transactional. Welcome to professional college football.

This is valid. The door swinging both ways will be hard to adjust to. Just like a job, if a company fires people to easily, people won't work for them. Meanwhile, people quit companies and suffer very little consequences because they likely already have a new job lined up. The dynamic will be wild.

 

[Dpd423]

Look for Alabama to add a state tax to fund their continued success in football.

Alabama already has a state income tax. Tennessee does not. So it will be Tennessee adding a tax to pay for players if it gets that bad.

 

[901 Orange]

I was at the Texas playoff game. They will get absolutely boatraced by OSU if OSU shows up. Neither Texas nor AZ State were championship caliber. It was a great game, but if those were 2 of the best teams this year, then talent is down all over.

Bro you're talking about 1 game vs a very unorthodox opponent. We got a full season body of work to look at. To say Texas doesn't have dudes on defense is ridiculous. We got boatraced because we didn't have a passing game to keep up. Will Howard ate Oregon's defense up the same way he did in the loss. Texas is a more complete team than Oregon or UT. I expect this game to be an instant classic.

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

so even after noting that we only won about 50% of the national titles for the last 20 years before this year; you are freaked out that this year we only have 1 team in the Final 4?

one year does not a trend make.

no conference looked dominate this year like in the years past. Sure the Big 10 is better than the SEC this year. but there isn't any reason to think its a long term thing beyond reactionary bias.

even if the Big 10 can stay as they are, if the SEC looks like they normally do next year, the SEC will be the better conference.

But as a whole, I'm not sure the Big Ten is better this year

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

Seismic overreaction

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

Clemson and Alabama were both weak this year so not sure that’s a sticking point with you

One won a conference. The other sucked out loud and won nothing of note.

 

[MemphisVol77]

The results we're seeing in the CFP this year is similar to the previous 10 years with the 4-team format......

The parity may come, but it hasn't arrived yet.

This..
3 of the 4 teams left have been in the 4 team CFP before. Penn St has come close and arguable got shafted, but still finished 5th in the CFP one year
All 4 of the CFP teams have finished in the top 5 of the final CFP rankings multiple times.

This ain't quite the great parity yet.

I also think the committee put too much energy into not counting the Championship Game against the loser. In some instances, they should have like with Ohio State vs Penn State. No reason for Penn State to be ahead of Ohio State when both had 2 losses and Ohio State beat them in their home

This, too.
The final CFP ranking before seeding went
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee

I think Notre Dame & Ohio St would have leapt both Texas & Penn State in the 4 team format.

Do away with the auto byes and I'll buy into the notion about not punishing the Championship Game losers. That's just a smoke screen to obfuscate the CFP's final rankings. Their just giving themselves more wiggle room to select favorable matchups.

 

[Volanta]

Interesting approach.

Indeed

 

[perico]

Bro you're talking about 1 game vs a very unorthodox opponent. We got a full season body of work to look at. To say Texas doesn't have dudes on defense is ridiculous. We got boatraced because we didn't have a passing game to keep up. Will Howard ate Oregon's defense up the same way he did in the loss. Texas is a more complete team than Oregon or UT. I expect this game to be an instant classic.

Texas has looked the same all year. They’ve scrapped by in games when the other team threw a punch. I mean, they looked dominant against a Gator squad who was starting a walk on transfer from the Ivy League but other than that they have scraped by.

They got beat by UGA’s backup QB, who did nothing but throw screens to the RB and scramble. When they have played teams of similar talent this year, they have wilted. Ohio State is the most complete team in the country with talent on par with Georgia and Alabama. Texas has looked the same all year against anyone with a pulse.