So the NIL is supposed to bring parity

[plumbervol]

Not enough Parity to support a 4 team playoff anyway a 12 team playoff. The NIL is a tool to create parity and it will work just as the scholarship limits has worked but Parity is goal that is a long way off. Jock sniffers and degenerate gamblers are the real tools to achieve parity, money follows the crowd and creates interest in the sport. Interest in the sport creates viewers and a market. The NIL becomes a tool in the arsenal. The cost is relative in that it requires an audience to sustain growth and draw in media to present it back to the jock sniffers and degenerate gamblers. They in turn watch Dr Pepper Friendsville commercials while the sports is being broadcast. The sniffers and gamblers will watch it with or without parity, they sustain interest so that mass media will spend the bucks to broadcast it and keep the cycle going.

 

[DukeDaisySam]

And alot of those players Bama signed will transfer I ain’t worried about Bama anymore their run is over and Saban has lost it. I don’t think Saban wins another national title although he will coach to 80 i’m sure and try. I’m more worried about Georgia about to win back to back with a young coach in Kirby and they continue to bring in elite recruiting classes year in and year out. Bama don’t run the SEC anymore it’s Georgia

LOL!!!

 

[TheRain]

And Bama signs 6 5 stars.

No, not parity, the haves and the have nots. The difference now is anybody can be part of the haves... if you have the money.

 

[sjt18]

Good grief dude you just can’t see it. You do realize that many of the 5* players Bama offers are 5* BEFORE getting the offer right?

Yes. Which does NOTHING to refute the point. Not even Saban gets every recruit he pursues. But when a kid has talent which FAR more than 30 do each year... then Saban, Kirby, and Day all show up pushing hard for his commitment... the recruiting sites know they have a 5*.

How many btw? It would be VERY interesting for you to prove your point by listing the number of 5* recruits that get their rating before being made a high target by one of the top programs. It would also be very interesting to see which recruits initially given 5* were dropped later after NOT being made a high priority by one or more of those top programs.

You charge others with being "blind" but you're the one who ignores things that completely destroy your belief. They've been listed by so many people so many times that I don't think doing it again will convince you any more than they have before. They have even been listed or affirmed by people who have more faith and trust in the rankings than I do.

You seem to imply that the only reason these 5* are that highly rated is because Bama offers them. As usual, you are dead wrong when it comes to this subject.

Never said that. But of the current consensus 5* on either On3 or 247... how many do not have an offer from at least two out of Bama, UGA, OSU, and Clemson?

No. I may not have the "perfect" view on this subject but I am 100% RIGHT about YOU being WRONG. The fact that ratings become not very predictive after those first few teams... you dismiss as unimportant when it is FAR MORE important as it relates to the accuracy of the ratings. You dismiss the failure of a 4* rating to predict future drafts with a significant level of accuracy. You dismiss the fact that more 2/3* guys will be drafted than 4/5* combined. You dismiss the fact that the recruiting sites TELL YOU that they aren't accurate by arbitrarily limiting the number of 4/5* ratings they give. If they knew what they were doing like YOU think they do... then every kid deserving of 5* in a class would get the rating. Some years there might be 20. In other years there might be 80.

You just handwave and ignore ALL of the things that prove your cult like faith WRONG. These things ARE disqualifiers for your view. If even one is true then your view is false... but they're ALL true.

 

[sjt18]

Good grief dude you just can’t see it. You do realize that many of the 5* players Bama offers are 5* BEFORE getting the offer right? You seem to imply that the only reason these 5* are that highly rated is because Bama offers them. As usual, you are dead wrong when it comes to this subject.

Still waiting for you to man up and say this is a subpar class with a bunch of untalented players in it. If your view of the ratings is right... that is your ONLY conclusion.

 

[happy-go_vol]

NSD is still going to belong to bama and uga but it’s the ability for those kids to transfer out and get immediate eligibility (when they don’t get on the field) that’s really leveling the playing field. Bama signed 6 5 star kids but they’ve lost about 6 former 5 stars in the portal over the last 2 weeks. It’s working. And exhibit A (that it’s working) is that they aren’t in the playoffs and lost to us this year.

Yeah, it create parity but it's delayed due the kids leaving school A to go to B

 

[voltn21]

NIL probably had a lot to do with Tennessee landing a 5 star QB before this season ever started. I dont think anyone ever said it would be what keep the big guys from getting their fair share, but i would say there is more than one player in this class that is here based in large part to NIL

Yes and who knows… without NIL Nico could have ended up at Bama. They were pushing for him hard.

 

[butchna]

Are you okay? You seem pretty worked up. You remind me of that guy from office space that's being questioned by the two Bob's. "I'm a people person!" Take your meds and settle down.

Good guy. Just has a lot of personal stake in this argument.

 

[Dudleys87]

Good grief dude you just can’t see it. You do realize that many of the 5* players Bama offers are 5* BEFORE getting the offer right? You seem to imply that the only reason these 5* are that highly rated is because Bama offers them. As usual, you are dead wrong when it comes to this subject.

Are you saying there’s no such thing as the Bama bump outside of Trailer Parks in Tuscaloosa?

 

[butchna]

The market always corrects itself. Billions of dollars in this defacto minor league we call collegiate sports. And in BILLIONS I mean the hundred variety. These athletes not being allowed to benefit monetarily was never legally sustainable when the number was mere millions, and the stakes have ratcheted up. NIL was not intelligent design by some higher power…it was capitulation to inevitability. The monsters who mastered the previous dirty system understandably resisted NIL because the relative pennies on the dollar to lock up the best every year doesn’t work. Arch and Nico aren’t in Bama or UGA and that genie isn’t going back in the bottle. They’re not going away and they’re at the top…but the distance has tightened. What anyone “thought” was the intent is immaterial.

 

[UTMVol76]

The market always corrects itself. Billions of dollars in this defacto minor league we call collegiate sports. And in BILLIONS I mean the hundred variety. These athletes not being allowed to benefit monetarily was never legally sustainable when the number was mere millions, and the stakes have ratcheted up. NIL was not intelligent design by some higher power…it was capitulation to inevitability. The monsters who mastered the previous dirty system understandably resisted NIL because the relative pennies on the dollar to lock up the best every year doesn’t work. Arch and Nico aren’t in Bama or UGA and that genie isn’t going back in the bottle. They’re not going away and they’re at the top…but the distance has tightened. What anyone “thought” was the intent is immaterial.

Well put. The landscape for NIL and the transfer portal will look completely different in a few years "once the dust settles".

This was a worst case scenario perfect storm deal with both these issues simultaneously and the NCAA just punted (which will end in their demise IMO at the P5 level). ROI and a little order will prevail here longer term.

 

[volbound1700]

NIL probably had a lot to do with Tennessee landing a 5 star QB before this season ever started. I dont think anyone ever said it would be what keep the big guys from getting their fair share, but i would say there is more than one player in this class that is here based in large part to NIL

The problem is we landed that 5 star and then no one else. We should have paid big bucks to land a solid WR like Carnell Tate.

 

[VOLtaism]

Who said that? NIL only a part of it. And the highest bidders get the money grabbers.

Oregon signed a bunch as well. Wonder why? Can you say NIKE.

 

[sjt18]

The market always corrects itself. Billions of dollars in this defacto minor league we call collegiate sports. And in BILLIONS I mean the hundred variety. These athletes not being allowed to benefit monetarily was never legally sustainable when the number was mere millions, and the stakes have ratcheted up. NIL was not intelligent design by some higher power…it was capitulation to inevitability. The monsters who mastered the previous dirty system understandably resisted NIL because the relative pennies on the dollar to lock up the best every year doesn’t work. Arch and Nico aren’t in Bama or UGA and that genie isn’t going back in the bottle. They’re not going away and they’re at the top…but the distance has tightened. What anyone “thought” was the intent is immaterial.

It is a little premature to evaluate NIL's impact on competition, parity, and the distribution of power/talent.

The OP appears to be basing it off of recruiting rankings. In spite of ruffling BOT's feathers more... which I'm kind of growing fond of doing... NIL applied to 4/5* recruits PALES in comparison to what happens when the better players actually show it on the field (regardless of the stars they were given) then hit the portal. THAT is where the real battle will be fought. That obscure 0* who started his college career at a DII school... now becomes the "prize" portal player that everyone throws NIL bids at.

The impact on who gets the mythical "best class" on signing day may never be all that significant. Getting talent initially will always be important. However the portal creates another significant means for getting the best talent... without the risks of overrated HS players. In fact, a much better strategy for NIL organizations might be to skew their spending toward the portal- the guys who have actually PROVEN their worth at the college level. I think we'll see the impact most when talent is rebalanced to the 20, 30, or so programs that support a strong NIL.

I don't think the "parity" we're looking for is between 131 teams. I think it is between the teams in each conference with strong booster and fan support. Oregon, USC, and UCLA appear to have that in the Pac12. UT, Bama, Auburn, LSU, TAM, UF, and UGA are the teams that definitely have it in the SEC. Clemson does but others may not invest in football that much. OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, PSU, Nebraska, and possibly even Purdue or MSU can do it in the Big 10. Once OU and Texas move there is going to be a huge void in the Big12... I don't honestly think they should be considered a P-5 conference after that move.

Another thing this all does is put a premium on leadership and honesty. Coaches who used to lie to kids in recruitment can't get away with it any more. You can't make playing time promises like before without taking a huge risk. You have to treat players with respect. You have to put them in a position to achieve their goals whatever that might be. A culture that players want to stay in is no longer optional.

 

[sjt18]

Another way of looking at this is that NIL may not change which programs get the best talent with initial signings. A few programs have always had "concentrations" of talent due to their ability to identify, recruit, sign, and develop HS talent. Other top talent has been distributed across many teams. NIL in combination with the portal allows the concentration of that dispersed talent in programs that have strong NIL offerings.

 

[butchna]

It is a little premature to evaluate NIL's impact on competition, parity, and the distribution of power/talent.

The OP appears to be basing it off of recruiting rankings. In spite of ruffling BOT's feathers more... which I'm kind of growing fond of doing... NIL applied to 4/5* recruits PALES in comparison to what happens when the better players actually show it on the field (regardless of the stars they were given) then hit the portal. THAT is where the real battle will be fought. That obscure 0* who started his college career at a DII school... now becomes the "prize" portal player that everyone throws NIL bids at.

The impact on who gets the mythical "best class" on signing day may never be all that significant. Where I think we'll see it most is when talent is rebalanced to the 20, 30, or so programs that can support a strong NIL.

Another thing this all does is put a premium on leadership and honesty. Coaches who used to lie to kids in recruitment can't get away with it any more. You can't make playing time promises like before without taking a huge risk. You have to treat players with respect. You have to put them in a position to achieve their goals whatever that might be. A culture that players want to stay in is no longer optional.

We’re of like mind concerning the slight fraud some service nerds have perpetuated. They follow the most successful coaches and apply numbers of stars accordingly. It works when these 5 star camps showcase obvious elite talent from established, powerhouse programs, but misses on similar (if not superior) talent that isn’t being developed as well or utilized EVERYWHERE ELSE. A Jahmyr Gibbs or Jarrad Verse aren’t outliers…they’re products of scouting fails borne from not being omnipotent. I do believe being in the top 10 of recruiting rankings consistently is required to be a consistent elite program, but give me the coaching staff who can identify and develop the players who CAN PLAY FOR THEM over the stud recruiter staff who end up at IMG after that paper bag remains undamaged.

 

[sjt18]

We’re of like mind concerning the slight fraud some service nerds have perpetuated. They follow the most successful coaches and apply numbers of stars accordingly. It works when these 5 star camps showcase obvious elite talent from established, powerhouse programs, but misses on similar (if not superior) talent that isn’t being developed as well or utilized EVERYWHERE ELSE. A Jahmyr Gibbs or Jarrad Verse aren’t outliers…they’re products of scouting fails borne from not being omnipotent. I do believe being in the top 10 of recruiting rankings consistently is required to be a consistent elite program, but give me the coaching staff who can identify and develop the players who CAN PLAY FOR THEM over the stud recruiter staff who end up at IMG after that paper bag remains undamaged.

I think you are right for two reasons concerning averaging in the top 10 or at least the top 15 or 20 with some good portal work. A coach who can evaluate talent and develop it is now at a premium more than ever before.

There are some physical attributes often demonstrated at camps combined with good HS production that make a kid an obvious talent. You or I with time and resources could find a lot of kids like that. A LOT are missed for various reasons that have elite talent... but those who are given higher ratings typically have the right measurables. The recruiting sites obviously consider these things when they are made aware of them.

However, if the guys handing out stars were actually great at evaluating kids as football players then they would start a consulting firm and sell information to programs like others have... or they'd get a coaching job. They NEED the expertise of coaches who see and understand things about a player's make up and talent that aren't easy to see. Those are the things that separate a Nolan Smith from a Chris Donald... and a Nick Saban from a Butch Jones.


There's another thing we haven't mentioned. A very talented player on a team of other very talented players will look better and perform better than a very talented player on a team with average or worse players around him. Vandy may have a LB every bit as talented as UGA's starter who won't look nearly as good because teams can scheme against him without worrying about the other guys.

 

[cobbwebb0710]

Yes. Which does NOTHING to refute the point. Not even Saban gets every recruit he pursues. But when a kid has talent which FAR more than 30 do each year... then Saban, Kirby, and Day all show up pushing hard for his commitment... the recruiting sites know they have a 5*.

How many btw? It would be VERY interesting for you to prove your point by listing the number of 5* recruits that get their rating before being made a high target by one of the top programs. It would also be very interesting to see which recruits initially given 5* were dropped later after NOT being made a high priority by one or more of those top programs.

You charge others with being "blind" but you're the one who ignores things that completely destroy your belief. They've been listed by so many people so many times that I don't think doing it again will convince you any more than they have before. They have even been listed or affirmed by people who have more faith and trust in the rankings than I do.


Never said that. But of the current consensus 5* on either On3 or 247... how many do not have an offer from at least two out of Bama, UGA, OSU, and Clemson?

No. I may not have the "perfect" view on this subject but I am 100% RIGHT about YOU being WRONG. The fact that ratings become not very predictive after those first few teams... you dismiss as unimportant when it is FAR MORE important as it relates to the accuracy of the ratings. You dismiss the failure of a 4* rating to predict future drafts with a significant level of accuracy. You dismiss the fact that more 2/3* guys will be drafted than 4/5* combined. You dismiss the fact that the recruiting sites TELL YOU that they aren't accurate by arbitrarily limiting the number of 4/5* ratings they give. If they knew what they were doing like YOU think they do... then every kid deserving of 5* in a class would get the rating. Some years there might be 20. In other years there might be 80.

You just handwave and ignore ALL of the things that prove your cult like faith WRONG. These things ARE disqualifiers for your view. If even one is true then your view is false... but they're ALL true.

People act as though guys like Brent Hubbs are master talent evaluators and only after they evaluate a player do the guys like Saban and Smart start sniffing around.
The Sabans and Smarts start identifying these kids very early on, before they are assigned a star value. So to back up your point, yes, a kid being shown a lot of attention from bama, OSU, Georgia, Clemson etc, are going to have a better shot at being a 5 star, than a kid getting attention from UCF and Tulane.

 

[Rememberthelate90s]

Oregon signed a bunch as well. Wonder why? Can you say NIKE.

Bama doesn't have nike. Part of it is some kids still want to play where they win and know they go pro and make even more money. What's the money grabbers gonna do once they are out of contention. Then they don't play as hard or fake injuries so they don't get hurt for their next step. It's free agency every year. Those kids are committed to program. Gonna have to be a balance of kids committed to program too.

 

[njvols]

NIL probably had a lot to do with Tennessee landing a 5 star QB before this season ever started. I dont think anyone ever said it would be what keep the big guys from getting their fair share, but i would say there is more than one player in this class that is here based in large part to NIL

No question...and doubt we land Nico w/o NIL...maybe we would have, but who knows. If a few here or a few there go to places other than Bama or UGA, then it begins to level the playing field. However, the biggest field-leveling impact is the transfer portal. Saw where Bama has 12 portal entries?...probably mostly underclassmen 4* minimum guys who have been recruited over, or seeing limited prospects of PT. Those 12 guys spread around ultimately makes Bama less impactful over a period of time (and helps teams they transfer to) because a freshman 4-5* usually isn't as ready to step into playing time as someone who's been there for a few years. I think we saw some of that possibly with Bama's defense this year...especially DBs.

 

[VOLINVONORE]

And Bama signs 6 5 stars.

This means that they should be as good as Georgia the next 2-3 years. I guess that can be called parity.

 

[Volnatic]

People act as though guys like Brent Hubbs are master talent evaluators and only after they evaluate a player do the guys like Saban and Smart start sniffing around.
The Sabans and Smarts start identifying these kids very early on, before they are assigned a star value. So to back up your point, yes, a kid being shown a lot of attention from bama, OSU, Georgia, Clemson etc, are going to have a better shot at being a 5 star, than a kid getting attention from UCF and Tulane.

Brent Hubbs doesn’t evaluate talent at all. He’d tell you that too. He has nothing to do with the rankings.

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

Keep winning and Tennessee will become a monster with NIL. Of this, I have no doubt.

Alabama, like it or not, has been the gold standard of CFB for 15 years. The Dark Lord still resides in Tuscaloosa and they had the same record as us. There is no evidence for decline (yet) and recruits are still going to line up to play for them. When he retires, there should be a parade in Knoxville.

 

[youcancallmeAl]

I don't think the intention of the court that threw out the old way of players not getting paid legally was to create parity in the college game as a motive for their ruling.

 

[djwes]

Was never about parity; the wealthier schools can just buy talent legally now, the portal allows for a redistribution of talent each year (defacto free agency), ultimately it's marginal impact to elite teams who go in on NIL, but for teams like Tennessee that are wealthy but not elite it provides a pathway to close the gap. For the have-not schools, will be harder to get talent and the gap will widen.

The ability to recognize, anticipate and adapt to markets is key (see Eastman Kodak and the failure to recognize, anticipate and adapt to digital photography).

Glad Tenn dove in on NIL.