Spectrum vs. Disney -- A Development Tracking Thread

#52
#52
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I'm trying to figure out why Charter thinks Disney wants another streaming partner. That's essentially what Hulu is doing for them.

What does Charter have that Disney really needs? The Charter subscribers want content and they don't care if it's Charter, Hulu, YT TV, etc.

What does Charter bring Disney in the deal?
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Internet?
 
#53
#53
Dadof2Vols said:
I really believe Charter is ready to walk away.
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From the article I just read, you sir are correct. Here is some great insight into the situation. They even mention how Vols mega-booster Charlie Ergen forced Bally Sports into bankruptcy.

www.yahoo.com

How Ready Is Charter To Let Disney and ESPN Walk? It Plans To Funnel Blacked-Out ‘Monday Night Football’ Fans to Fubo and YouTube TV

Why this mega-blackout feels different — Charter seems more interested in protecting its core broadband ‘connectivity relationships’ than renewing its $2.2 billion deal with Disney
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
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#54
#54
Dadof2Vols said:
Probably 10m more subscribers. But Disney does interesting accounting as they count subscribers separately for each of their properties so if 2/3 or 10m of Charters subscribers weren’t current Disney subscribers and Charter brought those and Disney counted them 3 times one for each property(HULU, Disney+, ESPN+), Disney can actually say 30m more Subscribers. Wall Street would get impressed but I don’t think Disney wants them at the price that Charter does which is 0.

I really believe Charter is ready to walk away.

If charter walks away and Half of Charter’s 15m subscribers move to other services then Disney loses. Let’s just take ESPN and ignore what Charter pays for all of the Disney properties. If half of charters customers who want sports walks away and Charter is currently paying $10 for each subscriber, then when those 7.5m subscribers walk away and Charter walks away then Disney loses $10*15m not the 7.5m*$10 Representing those who walked.

Yes Disney will get the $10 from the 7.5m that go to other services but they won’t get $10 for the 7.5m left at Charter who now get their bill decreased. This subsidy by non sports watchers is the whole escalating cost of cable that has non sports people subsidizing sports watchers.

Disney then has to get that 7.5m*$10 from the providers left paying the ransom.

Remember Disney is losing money on ESPN, their streaming properties and their over the air networks. Any reduction of money coming into ESPN (7.5m*$10 a month or $900m a year) is really needed by Disney.

Without the bundling Disney noose around Charter’s neck they might be the cheapest provider for non sports watchers and might grow their subscribers.
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Charter is not going to "walk away" from 15 million paying subscribers. It may be a 10 year death spiral or maybe they convert to a streaming company, or maybe they sell their business to other carriers (like YouTube TV buying Frontier and other cable subscribers the last few years). If their current base of subscribers is profitable then it would be moronic to shut down that division.

The first digital camera rolled out in 1991 and Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012. These death spirals can last a lot longer than people think.

Also, I think zero companies not named Netflix are currently profitable in streaming......(maybe I read Hulu turned a small profit?) Anyway, not sure what the endgame is but it won't be any cheaper for the end user than the old basic cable bundle was.
 
#56
#56
Dadof2Vols said:
Probably 10m more subscribers. But Disney does interesting accounting as they count subscribers separately for each of their properties so if 2/3 or 10m of Charters subscribers weren’t current Disney subscribers and Charter brought those and Disney counted them 3 times one for each property(HULU, Disney+, ESPN+), Disney can actually say 30m more Subscribers. Wall Street would get impressed but I don’t think Disney wants them at the price that Charter does which is 0.

I really believe Charter is ready to walk away.

If charter walks away and Half of Charter’s 15m subscribers move to other services then Disney loses. Let’s just take ESPN and ignore what Charter pays for all of the Disney properties. If half of charters customers who want sports walks away and Charter is currently paying $10 for each subscriber, then when those 7.5m subscribers walk away and Charter walks away then Disney loses $10*15m not the 7.5m*$10 Representing those who walked.

Yes Disney will get the $10 from the 7.5m that go to other services but they won’t get $10 for the 7.5m left at Charter who now get their bill decreased. This subsidy by non sports watchers is the whole escalating cost of cable that has non sports people subsidizing sports watchers.

Disney then has to get that 7.5m*$10 from the providers left paying the ransom.

Remember Disney is losing money on ESPN, their streaming properties and their over the air networks. Any reduction of money coming into ESPN (7.5m*$10 a month or $900m a year) is really needed by Disney.

Without the bundling Disney noose around Charter’s neck they might be the cheapest provider for non sports watchers and might grow their subscribers.
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As long as ESPN remains a dog, but a very popular dog, Disney is going to run with it, I think. I'm not sure who would buy it unless Apple or Alphabet or Amazon are just bored.

I'm not sure college sports broadcasting can be made profitable. I've not understood ESPN agreeing to the massive contracts. I don't own any Disney (directly anyway) so I don't really care but their handling of ESPN has been stupid so far.

Charter may walk. Then perhaps it is a crossroads for the model but I'm not convinced any ISP/traditional cable provider wants to "go off the ledge first."

I still think Charter will pay up. That's my gut, not math or business sense though.
 
#57
#57
OrangeBeachVol said:
With YouTube having this same issue last yr, Direct TV is still negotiating with their ABC offering you cannot escape it. You can change providers now and your new one has issues with Disney next yr. This Spectrum - Disney contest has going forward ramifications which is why I don't see it getting settled quickly. I have Spectrum so hope I am wrong but starting do research on other providers. Will hold out until I find one I like.

Also read Disney wants to sell ESPN.
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Great - let them sell ESPN !!! Seems Disney owning other networks is the main problem here and why they have so much control. Personally I don’t care about Disney and would rarely watch it if it was free. I’ve noticed how these mergers that are supposed to be good for consumers end up NOT being very good in the long run. Most will disagree with me on this, but maybe we need to have a Boston Tea Party moment … just stop watching until they offer what WE want and offer it fairly across all the platforms. We won’t, but maybe we should.
 
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#59
#59
ESPN pays out the bleep for SEC media rights. SEC fans cheer.

ESPN raises price of their service. Some SEC fans pissed.


Huh? None of this is surprising
 
#60
#60
I will say this: Spectrum is going to have the cut the cost of cable dramatically having given up this package, which everybody says was the most expensive thing they have to pay for. So I think in a month or so customers would be looking for maybe a $30 or $40 cut in what the service is worth. I have to think absolutely nothing will be forthcoming, and while I try never to blubber about what "most people" think, I actually expect "most" customers would actually drop charter TV. You'd think. We have charter internet and that is not going anywhere, but there is certainly a limit of what I'd pay for that too.

The SEC revenue, I think, is really a projection. There may be a flat license fee but most of the money is the profit sharing part.
 
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#61
#61
MurphyVol said:
Charter is not going to "walk away" from 15 million paying subscribers. It may be a 10 year death spiral or maybe they convert to a streaming company, or maybe they sell their business to other carriers (like YouTube TV buying Frontier and other cable subscribers the last few years). If their current base of subscribers is profitable then it would be moronic to shut down that division.

The first digital camera rolled out in 1991 and Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012. These death spirals can last a lot longer than people think.

Also, I think zero companies not named Netflix are currently profitable in streaming......(maybe I read Hulu turned a small profit?) Anyway, not sure what the endgame is but it won't be any cheaper for the end user than the old basic cable bundle was.
Click to expand...

I respect your opinion but I will respectfully say I believe this is the huge turning point in the industry and a miscalculation by Disney. If Charter does this don’t be surprised to see others do it (Comcast next?)

I have worked with one of the largest players in the industry for 6 years. I have travelled all over the world and attending brocasting conferences many times. I have been onsite at many of these media facilities talking to these guys about their future plans.

I do believe that Charter has been planning for years on what to do if Disney tried to hold them up again with a ridiculous increase.

I think Charter walks. Carriage fee disputes used to get resolved quickly but haven’t lately. The fact that Charter is telling their customers what their alternatives are is very telling.
 
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#62
#62
Firebirdparts said:
I will say this: Spectrum is going to have the cut the cost of cable dramatically having given up this package, which everybody says was the most expensive thing they have to pay for. So I think in a month or so customers would be looking for maybe a $30 or $40 cut in what the service is worth. I have to think absolutely nothing will be forthcoming, and while I try never to blubber about what "most people" think, I actually expect "most" customers would actually drop charter TV. You'd think. We have charter internet and that is not going anywhere, but there is certainly a limit of what I'd pay for that too.
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They don’t care if you drop the video side and keep internet and phone, Video has become almost no profit. Their profit is almost all coming from sources other than video.
 
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#63
#63
I hope that's true. We haven't had TV for a decade at least. They can just ask for more money any time they want.
 
#65
#65
Dadof2Vols said:
I respect your opinion but I will respectfully say I believe this is the huge turning point in the industry and a miscalculation by Disney. If Charter does this don’t be surprised to see others do it (Comcast next?)

I have worked with one of the largest players in the industry for 6 years. I have travelled all over the world and attending brocasting conferences many times. I have been onsite at many of these media facilities talking to these guys about their future plans.

I do believe that Charter has been planning for years on what to do if Disney tried to hold them up again with a ridiculous increase.

I think Charter walks. Carriage fee disputes used to get resolved quickly but haven’t lately. The fact that Charter is telling their customers what their alternatives are is very telling.
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Can you define "walks" does that mean shutter a division that is still turning a significant profit? It appears they currently pull in $3-4 billion per quarter from cable.
 
#66
#66
Voltopia said:
I hate cable companies -- but I hate Disney more. Disney is a plague on joy and imagination. They use their profits to buy our favorite things and sell them back to us covered with advertising and paywalls -- and every time you look away, they raise the prices and tell you that there's no way you can put a price tag on memories from your childhood.

And specific to sports, they have ruined ESPN. Their bloodless corporate messaging and tone has devoured the sports landscape, digesting it into a sterile paste of commercials and noxious cultural content vomited up to attract filthy casuals who cheerfully say "I don't have a team, I just love the sport itself!" as they spill more overpriced chili on their five dollar WalMart tshirts that don't even match the color of whatever team they told people at work they were following last week, but whose quarterback they couldn't even pick out on the field even if they saw him throwing the damn bal - not that they ever watch a whole game to begin with.

Sorry ... I just ... I really really really dislike Disney. Disney is a plague. If Spectrum is arguing with them, then I'm with Spectrum. I don't like cable companies at all either, but in this fight, I would bet Disney's "price hike" was likely exorbitant. And even if it wasn't, I hate 'em anyway.
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Disney shut down Splash Mountain because they decided a cartoon rabbit was raaaaacist. A pox on their house forever 😡
 
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#67
#67
MurphyVol said:
Can you define "walks" does that mean shutter a division that is still turning a significant profit? It appears they currently pull in $3-4 billion per quarter from cable.
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Is that the actual cable/video or their “cable“ side business. I have Spectrum. Half my cable bill is from internet and phone which are very high margin compared to Video side because the majority of video side expense is carriage fees.
 
#68
#68
Dadof2Vols said:
Is that the actual cable/video or their “cable“ side business. I have Spectrum. Half my cable bill is from internet and phone which are very high margin compared to Video side because the majority of video side expense is carriage fees.
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all the financials I've seen say comcast lost 100k subscirbers last quarter and that "brings down the number of cable tv subscribers to 15 mil" What is a mid-level cable subscription these days, $65? if so that math is roughly $975 million dollars per month. if 90% of that is carriage fees then they're going to throw away $100 million per year?
 
#69
#69
Those who have Spectrum should have a game plan one way or the other. This can end up multiple ways:

1. Disney takes the Spectrum offer. For me, I want Disney to accept what Spectrum is offering. I have Disney+ and ESPN+. That should be baked into the package. Don't jump up the cost and not give me something included, which is what Disney wants to do - cost increase but nothing to show.

2. Spectrum gives in to Disney and passes the increased cost on to their consumers. Depending upon how much that will be, it will drive some to look for other options where one can subscribe to what they want and only what they want when they want it. Everyone loses, Spectrum, Disney and the consumers.

3. Spectrum walks away from Disney. The costs of the packages should ultimately decrease. Those that did not really care about Disney and ESPN are just fine. Those that want those programs go elsewhere. Everyone probably still loses except those consumers who did not care about Disney and ESPN in the first place.

4. Not on the table - but if they work out an agreement, I would like to see Spectrum spin off Disney and ESPN into separate offerings for a choice. I could care less about the true Disney channels and Disney+ works for my family. I would buy up ESPN (especially if it has ESPN+ and would expect that to be comparable to what I am paying with ESPN+ - because that is how I get ALL the games.)

How this is resolved will impact the entire industry. YouTube TV and the other streaming services are NOT going to challenge Disney on this. YouTube TV already gave into them before. They don't have the influence.
 
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#70
#70
Dadof2Vols said:
They don’t care if you drop the video side and keep internet and phone, Video has become almost no profit. Their profit is almost all coming from sources other than video.
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That's what I've gather from reading other sources. Cable isn't where the money is for them and they;re willing to walk away from it
 
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#71
#71
TheVolsFrog said:
That's what I've gather from reading other sources. Cable isn't where the money is for them and they;re willing to walk away from it
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This is true. The cost of the package, at least the one I have, that contains what I need is comparable to what the streaming services packages are. Unless this ends with me getting a better deal (i.e. ESPN+ included at no charge and no hefty increase), I'm more than likely going to drop the video, increase the internet to the best data package they have and stream away.
 
#72
#72
Dadof2Vols said:
I respect your opinion but I will respectfully say I believe this is the huge turning point in the industry and a miscalculation by Disney. If Charter does this don’t be surprised to see others do it (Comcast next?)

I have worked with one of the largest players in the industry for 6 years. I have travelled all over the world and attending brocasting conferences many times. I have been onsite at many of these media facilities talking to these guys about their future plans.

I do believe that Charter has been planning for years on what to do if Disney tried to hold them up again with a ridiculous increase.

I think Charter walks. Carriage fee disputes used to get resolved quickly but haven’t lately. The fact that Charter is telling their customers what their alternatives are is very telling.
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I appreciate your insight. Let me ask a quick question:

If Charter has been planning to drop Disney all along and has no intention of signing a contract, why the drama? Why jerk their subscribers around with the notion that "We're still trying to negotiate a fair deal....."

That's not very respectful of their customers if this has been a planned course of business.

What are they waiting for? State your intentions and move on if that's how you've decided.
 
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