Star Ratings

[JFBanicki]

My take is that these services are pretty accurate when it comes to defensive players, but when it comes to offensive players their guess is as good as any one of ours.
I've kinda noticed that when it comes to evaluating O players that these services base alot of their rating on the hype surrounding the players rather than what the film shows/actual performance.

 

[bamawriter]

My take is that these services are pretty accurate when it comes to defensive players, but when it comes to offensive players their guess is as good as any one of ours.

Elaborate on that.

 

[1truevol]

Cool. I guess by that token, NFL GMs should trade all of their 1st round draft picks for 6th round draft picks so they can have a whole team of Tom Bradys.

Ummm.......NFL?? If they've made it to the NFL, then I'd say they've had pretty good "player development"! But for the record, I could care less what NFL GM's do with their teams.

 

[NashVol11]

:lolabove: That's wrong just based on pure math. Take a look at what the stars mean.

Per About Football Ratings -> A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation's top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player.

There are 117 Teams in D1 with 22 Starters which means there are over 2,500 players starting at any given time. The majority of those guys are 3 stars. Just because they don't garner stats or highlights that make ESPN doesn't mean they aren't there. For a fact , many OL recruits are 3 stars just due to the nature of recruiting rankings and they are almost 25% of the starting 22.

A lot of the 4 and 5 dont either, and you have to baby set them.:bottom:

And there will be a number of 4 stars that won't live up to their hype!

No...the logic is that fans shouldn't get too caught up in "star gazing"! Player development is where it's at. I'm sure 3 star Johnny football would tell you the same.

Some people on this board are really really dense.

 

[KBVol]

Cool. I guess by that token, NFL GMs should trade all of their 1st round draft picks for 6th round draft picks so they can have a whole team of Tom Bradys.

It's an in exact science, however, take the best players with the most talent you can get. Some will wash out, some will overachieve, but I guarantee you over the long haul, the team with more talent wins.

 

[NashVol11]

NFL Draft 2012

1 Andrew Luck 4* 4th OVR QB, 68th in Rivals100
2 Robert Griffin III 4* 4th OVR DTQB
3 Trent Richardson 5* 2nd OVR RB, 6th in Rivals100
4 Matt Kalil 5* 3rd OVR OT, 11th in Rivals100
5 Justin Blackmon 3* 91st OVR WR
6 Morris Claiborne 3* 38th OVR ATH
7 Mark Barron 4* 5th OVR ATH, 55th in Rivals100
8 Ryan Tannehill 3* 23rd OVR DTQB
9 Luke Kuechly 3* 44th OVR OLB
10 Stephon Gilmore 4* 6th OVR ATH, 84th in Rivals100
11 Dontari Poe 2*
12 Fletcher Cox 4* 5th OVR WDE, 95th in Rivals100
13 Michael Floyd 5* WR, 6th OVR WR, 27th in Rivals100
14 Michael Brockers 4* 10th OVR SDE, 201st in Rivals250
15 Bruch Irvin 4* JUCO
16 Quinton Coples 4* 6th OVR SDE, 105th in Rivals259
17 Dre Kirkpatrick 5* 1st OVR CB, 11th in Rival100
18 Melvin Ingram 4* 21st OVR OLB
19 Shea McClellin 2*
20 Kendal Wright 3* 64th OVR WR
21 Chandler Jones 2*
22 Brandon Weeden (baseball)
23 Riley Reiff 3* 25th OVR SDE
24 David DeCastro 3* 11th OVR OG
25 Donta Hightower 4* 15th OVR ILB
26 Whitney Mercilus 3* 28th OVR WDE
27 Kevin Zeitler 3* 39th OVR OG
28 Nick Perry 4* 2nd OVR WDE, 56th in Rivals100
29 Harrison Smith 4* 25th OVR ATH
30 AJ Jenkins 3* 53rd OVR WR
31 Doug Martin 2*
32 David Wilson 4* 4th OVR RB, 40th in Rivals100
33 Brian Quick unranked
34 Coby Fleener 3* 40th OVR TE
35 Courtney Upshaw 4* 12th OVR OLB, 131st in Rivals250
36 Derek Wolfe 2*
37 Mitchell Schwartz 3* 27th OVR OT
38 Andre Branch 2*
39 Janoris Jenkins 4* 6th OVR CB, 51st in Rivals100
40 Amini Silatolu unranked
41 Cordy Glenn 4* 16th OVR OT 137th in Rivals250
42 Jonathon Martin 3* 44th OVR OT
43 Stephen Hill 3* 99th OVR WR
44 Jeff Allen 2*
45 Alshon Jeffery 4* 13th OVR WR, 99th in Rivals100
46 Mychal Kendricks 3* 45th OVR OLB
47 Bobby Wagner 2*
48 Tavon Wilson 3* 60th OVR CB
49 Kendall Reyes 2*
50 Isaiah Pead 3* 26th OVR RB

About 25 5*'s per year
About 300 4*'s per year
About 750 3*'s per year
About 2000 2*'s and unranked per year

Out of the top 50 in last years draft:

5*'s: 4
4*'s: 16
3*'s: 17
2*'s/unranked: 13

4/25=16% or .16
16/300=5% or .05
17/750=2% or .02
13/2000=0.6% or .006

I was always told by people that would know, "1% of HS football players make it to Div I, and 1% of Div I players make it to the NFL."

There is a better chance that a 5* will make it into the top 50 of the NFL draft than a 3*. This is only one year, but I can guarantee that this isn't an outlier and does occur every year.

In other words, by percentages, a 5 star is roughly 8 times as likely to be a high draft pick as a 3 star. A 4 star is more than twice as likely. Case closed.

 

[volinSmyrna]

Taking a look at the 09-12 classes...the SEC signed 50 5* prospects that would have had a chance to make this list. I don't have a list of all 50 to see how many were still playing this year. For example, the 3!!!!! that UT had are all long gone (B. Brown, J. Jackson, and Da'Rick). So, I don't think there is an indictment on 5*'s for there not to be more on the list. Take into account that Rivals only gives 25-35 kids the 5* designation and a couple hundred or more the 4* designation, there are more of those kids than there are 5*'s.

**Edit** Plus if you take a look at B. Brown and Da'Rick, the evaluators didn't really miss the boat on their talent. BB had some success coming out of nowhere for the Eagles and DR will be a 1st or 2nd round pick this year.

 

[bamawriter]

In other words, by percentages, a 5 star is roughly 8 times as likely to be a high draft pick as a 3 star. A 4 star is more than twice as likely. Case closed.

but but but... Johnny Manziel!

 

[midtnvol2]

We aren't going to get back to 8+ wins recruiting 2*&3* players, and 3-4 4* guys. 25-30 ranking in recruiting won't get it done.

 

[KBVol]

Man, UT needs more representation on that list...

I'm thinking SOME representation on that list would be good.

 

[oldfartvol]

Yes. It's insanely easy to see that. But don't bring up that argument here. Now if we were signing a bunch of 4 and 5 star guys like Bama, the tune around here about the "stars system" would change. Then people would agree. But as long as Tennessee signs a bunch of 3 star guys, the homers will defend it to the grave.

You can't win championships in this league without top rated classes. It's been proven too many times.

Us homers(faithful Vol Fans) have never argued that 3* players are preferable to 5* players,so there is nothing to defend here. However, we will not belittle a 3* player who chooses to shed his blood and sweat for UT just because some recruiting service shorts him one-tenth of a point,thus denying him his fourth star.

Nor should any keyboard warrior, who probably doesn't have enough talent to carry a 3 stars jock strap,need to be ragging on ANY young man who chooses to wear the orange into battle. GBO

 

[oldfartvol]

VK,sorry but I don't give a rat's a$$ about the NFL draft. Only about how well these kids perform at UT. If they light it up on the hill, the rest will take care or itself.

 

[playaut0785]

Us homers(faithful Vol Fans) have never argued that 3* players are preferable to 5* players,so there is nothing to defend here. However, we will not belittle a 3* player who chooses to shed his blood and sweat for UT just because some recruiting service shorts him one-tenth of a point,thus denying him his fourth star.

Nor should any keyboard warrior, who probably doesn't have enough talent to carry a 3 stars jock strap,need to be ragging on ANY young man who chooses to wear the orange into battle. GBO

I stop caring about their blood, sweat, and tears when they loose 6-7 games in a season. Call it harsh, but the mere act of trying hard means squat to me. And, no I'm not gonna be happy with signing players that are low ranked and have no other offers from any decent schools.

I'm just arguing that now more than ever, talent level is the best measuring stick for a team. Untalented teams don't win big games and championships. The most talented or very highly talented teams do.

 

[oldfartvol]

We are not targeting 3 stars as a first option. Everyone agrees we want the best talent WE CAN GET. Do you think CBJ and staff not aiming as high as possible? Think what you want but I think we pull a top 15 class this year and win 9 games plus a bowl. Call me a Homer. I embrace it!!

 

[1truevol]

Some people on this board are really really dense.

Oh...so you know what you're talking about? Lol. I promise you there is not a lot of difference between a 3 and 4 star athelete. A lot of it has to do with exposure, and where an atheletes plays regionally. You should put a lot more emphasis on coaches evaluations of their needs as it relates to their program....not what some "employed" recruiting service guy thinks about a player. There's probably a reason he's in the stands "watching" instead on the field coaching!

 

[UTChicagoV]

You don't need time to mature to play on the Dline in the SEC?? Are you on crack?

Maybe that came off wrong. Playing in the Trenches in the SEC would be rough for any kid straight out of HS, but with the amount of rotation being done on the DL to keep those guys fresh all game, a 5 star freshman would have a much easier time seeing the field and getting a chance to make an impact than a similar 5 star else where on the field. A lower ranked recruit on the DL would more than likely be redshirted and not even see the field his first year.

 

[UTChicagoV]

I stop caring about their blood, sweat, and tears when they loose 6-7 games in a season. Call it harsh, but the mere act of trying hard means squat to me. And, no I'm not gonna be happy with signing players that are low ranked and have no other offers from any decent schools.

I'm just arguing that now more than ever, talent level is the best measuring stick for a team. Untalented teams don't win big games and championships. The most talented or very highly talented teams do.

Hmmm have you ever put on the pads and played a down? No? Then shut the **** up.

 

[NashVol11]

VK,sorry but I don't give a rat's a$$ about the NFL draft. Only about how well these kids perform at UT. If they light it up on the hill, the rest will take care or itself.

The best way to have a good team is to recruit a lot of NFL-caliber players. You have got to be kidding me.

 

[NashVol11]

I promise you there is not a lot of difference between a 3 and 4 star athelete.

Except that the 4 star "athelete" is more than twice as likely to have real NFL potential.

Oh...so you know what you're talking about? Lol.

I know how to spell above a second-grade level, which is more than I can say for you.

 

[NashVol11]

Hmmm have you ever put on the pads and played a down? No? Then shut the **** up.

I care a lot about the seniors that were on our team this past year. But there's a difference between "caring about them" and thinking they're good enough to win an SEC or national title. If we recruit the way we are right now, we can care all we want but we aren't winning a damn thing.

 

[UTChicagoV]

I care a lot about the seniors that were on our team this past year. But there's a difference between "caring about them" and thinking they're good enough to win an SEC or national title. If we recruit the way we are right now, we can care all we want but we aren't winning a damn thing.

I agree that our recruiting has to improve to catch the likes of Bama and the rest of the SEC Elite. And honestly, no I don't think this team right now could win even the SEC East. But to say that you don't care about them putting in the effort to get better for a game we all enjoy is downright retarded. These players are human and with everything we're learning about concussions and how debilitating some injuries become as players age, saying something that *****ing stupid pisses me off and should piss off more of you. :hi:

 

[NashVol11]

I agree that our recruiting has to improve to catch the likes of Bama and the rest of the SEC Elite. And honestly, no I don't think this team right now could win even the SEC East. But to say that you don't care about them putting in the effort to get better for a game we all enjoy is downright retarded. These players are human and with everything we're learning about concussions and how debilitating some injuries become as players age, saying something that *****ing stupid pisses me off and should piss off more of you. :hi:

I agree with that, I wasn't agreeing that we shouldn't care about them unless they win. I root for everyone wearing the Tennessee uniform. They can't help it if they're not good enough to win titles or make it to the NFL. The blame for that lies mostly on the coaches that recruited them.

 

[NashVol11]

Us homers(faithful Vol Fans) have never argued that 3* players are preferable to 5* players,so there is nothing to defend here. However, we will not belittle a 3* player who chooses to shed his blood and sweat for UT just because some recruiting service shorts him one-tenth of a point,thus denying him his fourth star.

Nor should any keyboard warrior, who probably doesn't have enough talent to carry a 3 stars jock strap,need to be ragging on ANY young man who chooses to wear the orange into battle. GBO

I guess this is the post I should have responded to. A class comprised mostly of 3*s isn't good enough, and that's not belittling or ragging on the players in the class. It's belittling the coaches that need to do better than that.

 

[bamawriter]

Oh...so you know what you're talking about? Lol. I promise you there is not a lot of difference between a 3 and 4 star athelete.

Actually, there is. There are way fewer 4 stars, and they are more likely to make all-conference and all-america teams, and are much more likely to make NFL rosters.

 

[1truevol]

Actually, there is. There are way fewer 4 stars, and they are more likely to make all-conference and all-america teams, and are much more likely to make NFL rosters.

No...there really isn't, at 18 years old maybe. A 4 star may be closer to contributing early from a physical standpoint, but I've seen way too many 3 star high school atheletes do great things by the time they're juniors and seniors. In my community alone we've watched two "2 star" atheletes have great college careers and are now on the NFL. This is just in the last six years. Granted...it "looks" good on signing day for Bama fans when you sign x amount of 4s and 5s. But take Oregon for example, they have gone several years with average "star" rankings and they've managed to be pretty competitive on Saturdays!