Stars Matter - The Athletic

#26
#26
VOLUNTEERSZN said:
Do they? At specific positions, yes. But they’re not everything. Where they’re most important is Quarterback, offensive line (primarily tackles) and pass rushers. You can also make a solid case for linebackers but there’s a drop off from linebackers to the other 3.

With DBs, WRs and RBs there’s a boatload of guys in the 3⭐️ range that turn into great or elite players. Not saying the 5 star WR/DBs don’t turn out elite but it’s far more common for 3-Star skill guys to develop into elite talents than it is any other position.

When Clemson won their 2 national titles, the roster wasn’t exactly loaded with a ton of 5 star kids. What they did have was a 5 star QB both times and studs on both sides of the line of scrimmage.. especially the defensive line. The average recruiting class ranking of the national title team in 2016 was like 11. In 2018 it was 7 or 8.

If you consistently recruit top 10, you have enough talent to win a national title if your coach is really good. We’re on the way to doing so. You don’t HAVE to have the number 1 class every year to compete. Does it help? Yes. But if you have half a roster of 5 stars and can’t win big, it shows the coaching staff isn’t very good at anything except recruiting.
Click to expand...

You don’t need number 1 classes. It definitely helps, but there’s so many other factors that stars can’t measure. They can’t measure attitude, they can’t measure scheme fit/role in a program, they can’t measure work ethic, they can’t measure how much somebody wants to be great. And also, fact is, a lot of players are late bloomers, physically and in skill and experience. I mean, even personally, when I was a senior in high school, I was 5’11, 140 pounds. I was a bean pole. When I was a senior in college, I was 6’0, 190 pounds. Most boys become men in college and it’s the same deal for athletes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tennvols77 and SweetasSoda
#29
#29
BowlBrother85 said:
Tennessee has signed a lot of 4 star players since 2014 who weren't drafted. Of course stars matter... Tennessee's issue seems more to do with player development over the years and fitting their talent into the right schemes.
Click to expand...
I wonder how many of those 4*' since 2014 that we signed under botch were hurt? Never panned out due to no strength conditioning coarch either at Tennessee for two years. Botch was just a big ****ing joke. I would stop paying that fraud his buyout.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BreatheUT
#35
#35
Probably_in_Class said:
Right, but for it to be true, the ratings have to be primarily accurate which makes the recruiting rankings primarily accurate.
Click to expand...
What amazes me is teams such as Alabama and Georgia ever lose a game. When you dominate in recruiting and players drafted for over a decade how do you lose a game. I often hear it's about the Jimmy's and Joe's, not the X's and O's. It seems to me it's not the great job these programs do, but possibly the opposite. Teams with less regarded players over time seem to do a better job of producing a product ie: Clemson, LSU, Auburn,Oregon etc.
 
#36
#36
All that tells me is that the recruiting services hit it right about 20% of the time on their evals of 5* players. If those guys are supposedly can't miss NFL'ers - what about the other 80%?

LSU and Bama put 19 guys into the NFL in the first 3 rounds last night. Break those down by valuation and it will tell you what you have to have in the SEC to win at their level. Add in Clemson's for good measure and there will be no doubt. That will tell you when our Vols have arrived as an elite program. Until then, keep signing 3 and 4* that have upside with development.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SweetasSoda
#38
#38
Being a five-star high school prospect correlates well with likely college success, and we know blue-chip recruits are much more likely than others to be drafted into the NFL. But how well does five-star status predict your chances of becoming a draft pick? The answer varies, depending on a recruit’s class year and position.

From 2000-14, there were 522 five-star recruits, with 53 percent of them eventually drafted. That is significantly higher than other star rankings in a recent draft, which saw four-stars drafted at a 20 percent clip, three-stars at 6 percent, and two-stars 3 percent.

...Since 2011, the numbers have been increasing consistently. Over the last three recruit classes for which there are no remaining players in school (2012-14), almost two of every three five-star recruits were drafted. That positive trend appears to be continuing in the 2015-16 classes so far. A big reason for these numbers getting better? Recruiting rankings getting more and more accurate due to advances in technology and exposure.
Are you a 5-star football recruit? Here are your odds of getting drafted

FWIW, I did an analysis way back in 2005 looking at Coaches' All-SEC teams, and found that 5-star guys were twice as likely to make that team as 4-stars, who were twice as likely as 3-stars, who in turn were 2.5x more likely than 2-stars and below.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tennvols77, Devo182, GlennTenn and 1 other person
#39
#39
Vols4us said:
All that tells me is that the recruiting services hit it right about 20% of the time on their evals of 5* players. If those guys are supposedly can't miss NFL'ers - what about the other 80%?

LSU and Bama put 19 guys into the NFL in the first 3 rounds last night. Break those down by valuation and it will tell you what you have to have in the SEC to win at their level. Add in Clemson's for good measure and there will be no doubt. That will tell you when our Vols have arrived as an elite program. Until then, keep signing 3 and 4* that have upside with development.
Click to expand...

Significantly more than 20% of 5*s make it to the league. Looking at 247's 2016 5*s over half are either already in the league or about to be drafted. You're also not accounting for career-ending injuries. That's impossible to predict, and certainly shouldn't detract from a guy's evaluation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lifeisdeep
#40
#40
tennesseeduke said:
Actually excel at math. The thread was suggesting top 32 picks that 5* should be everywhere. They are not. If the coveted 5* is so great from HS then the lower amount of those players should be much higher in 1st round of 32 selected. Ratio is off translating to the pro level and not the HS level you are calculating your numbers from.

Remember the elite 5* player should be coming out in his JR yr. If they go through sr year you are now talking about 50-60 5* players who are eligible for the draft every season!
Click to expand...
You should probably stay away from careers that require math. I already broke this down, as did others. Also, if you had bothered to follow the link I provided you would see that I didn't quote high school numbers, but college ones: the article I linked to stated that there are 1328 three-star signees each year, and 30 five-star signees. Not every five-star declares early; even if all of them did, that would take away one entire year's class of five stars, meaning there would be none from that class the next draft.

You do understand that 20% is a lot higher than .8%? Hopefully? Because that's the difference in probability that a five-star will get drafted versus a three-star. All the mindless blathering on earth won't change that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Devo182 and GlennTenn
#41
#41
lifeisdeep said:
You should probably stay away from careers that require math. I already broke this down, as did others. Also, if you had bothered to follow the link I provided you would see that I didn't quote high school numbers, but college ones: the article I linked to stated that there are 1328 three-star signees each year, and 30 five-star signees. Not every five-star declares early; even if all of them did, that would take away one entire year's class of five stars, meaning there would be none from that class the next draft.

You do understand that 20% is a lot higher than .8%? Hopefully? Because that's the difference in probability that a five-star will get drafted versus a three-star. All the mindless blathering on earth won't change that.
Click to expand...
You can’t see the trees for the forest !
 
#44
#44
lifeisdeep said:
You should probably stay away from careers that require math. I already broke this down, as did others. Also, if you had bothered to follow the link I provided you would see that I didn't quote high school numbers, but college ones: the article I linked to stated that there are 1328 three-star signees each year, and 30 five-star signees. Not every five-star declares early; even if all of them did, that would take away one entire year's class of five stars, meaning there would be none from that class the next draft.

You do understand that 20% is a lot higher than .8%? Hopefully? Because that's the difference in probability that a five-star will get drafted versus a three-star. All the mindless blathering on earth won't change that.
Click to expand...
And yet all the math and probability will not change the fact that 20% of 5* is still only 20% so there's no need in freaking out over not getting a 5* to commit. And no need to freak out because someone is rated a 3*. Just get as many of the best players as you can get, develop them, coach them, and then play ball....We do enjoy mindless blathering on Volnation.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bullet20, butchna and VOLSONLY
#45
#45
Probably_in_Class said:
Significantly more than 20% of 5*s make it to the league. Looking at 247's 2016 5*s over half are either already in the league or about to be drafted. You're also not accounting for career-ending injuries. That's impossible to predict, and certainly shouldn't detract from a guy's evaluation.
Click to expand...
20% still isn’t 100%

I understand the argument on both sides, and I agree with parts of each, but until every 5 star every class ends up going 1st round in the draft, people are gonna continue to argue this
 
#46
#46
There are each year around 50 players who jump off the film and every program wants. Some years there are some more than50. The hardest part for evualting players are the next 500 kids. It is like panning for Gold. Very little separation in Athletic gifts except some still have growth spurts. So having a coaching staff that evualtes better than others gets you to the top quicker.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SweetasSoda
#48
#48
VOLUNTEERSZN said:
20% still isn’t 100%

I understand the argument on both sides, and I agree with parts of each, but until every 5 star every class ends up going 1st round in the draft, people are gonna continue to argue this
Click to expand...

I think you mean 50%, not 20%. Assuming you do, it's sports. Over 50% is very, very good at a lot of things. Imagine a guy batting .500 or a guy getting a sack on 50% of snaps. If a service can look at a 17 year old kid and with 50-60% certainty say he's going to be in the NFL in 3-5 years, I consider that quite good.
 
#49
#49
VonVol2 said:
Lots of math in here. The only thing I can add is that the percentage of this thread showing up every year during draft week is 100%.
Click to expand...

There are literally zero live sports, no Vols practices, and everyone is in quarantine. You're welcome to not participate in the discussion if you have better things to do...
 
#50
#50
The question is do players get stars due to who recruits them or do coaches recruit players based on the stars recruiting sites give players?

There are REAL recruiting services out there that do in depth research on recruits for top programs. In a way, the consumer sites "steal" from those paid professionals by watching who recruits who. The service working for Bama and the player profile they're given by Saban has worked. A Bama offer will increases a kid's likelihood of getting 4 or 5 stars from 247 or Rivals.

IMHO, the organization that tries to do the most of their own evaluations is ESPN... and they're usually the least accurate.

You can think that Clemson just started getting great players because their ranking just started being more consistently at the top... or you can consider that the recruiting sites have finally recognized that Dabo and his recruiting service are pretty good at finding top players.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MoB_MoVols
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top