Statistics tell the whole story. Independently verified?

#1
D

daj2576

@aVolForLife
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#1
Many of you read my discussions on talent evaluations as a way to predict football games (generally: 2/3 of the time, a four year trailing talent average can predict seasonal outcomes).

Some of you even participated in some threads where I developed and tested this process (thank you for the mature discussion and insight).

Today, I stumbled across a website where someone is using a very similar system to the one that I tripped upon.

Here is his page dedicated to UT evaluations.-->Tennenessee Vols 2013 Football Preview

Notice some similarities to things that we have already discussed, 1) He predicts UT will go 7-5 or 8-4 this year, exactly the same prediction that my numbers show, 2) He says that Jones had a +1 effect at Cincinnati. My numbers suggest it was +2 if you average in the first year where he was +0, or +3 if you consider his first year at Cincy to be an outlyer., 3) He suggests that UT v. Oregon will be a much closer game than most believe. Ditto.

I found this website to be fascinating, and also a little humbling. I thought I had stumbled upon something really unique. This guy has been doing something very similar for several years, apparently. I also laughed when I read through some of his statements about how many people completely reject this system, no matter how strong the data.

He also adds more and other details about the likelihood of success for a first year coach. This is definitely an interesting read.
 
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#3
#3
Daj. Always enjoy your posts. Very well thought out and I can't find any fault in your scenarios. I hope you have hit the nail on the head with your numbers. Thanks again.
 
#5
#5
fixin2golf said:
Just curious. What did your system predict last season?
Click to expand...

That is the interesting part about it all. My system showed that UT had the talent to go 9-3 last year. It also shows that UT has vastly been under performing for a better part of a decade. In fact, UT is one of the largest under-achievers in the SEC. This guy's website draws almost the exact same conclusions.

When I came up with this hypothesis, I wanted to see if there was a way to mathematically determine what the expectations on a coach should be. In other words, was Dooley really as bad as many fans thought? The answer: yes. I was shocked as I started to find out how closely correlated talent averages were to predicting seasonal outcomes. What really blew my mind was when I used this evaluation for the BCS championship game, and found that almost 90% of the time (lone exception Texas v. USC), the team with the higher talent evaluation won the game.

Dooley is/was a chronic under achiever. His measured effect on seasonal outcomes is in the -3 to -4 games a year range. Jones is the opposite.
 
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#8
#8
Found a great quote as I peruse this website. This is something that I have been screaming at the top of my lungs for awhile now:

"Lane Kiffin – Stewart has him in the bottom 5 and I have zero complaint with that other than he should be the #1 of the bottom 5. Lane has under performed his talent at EVERY job he has held as head coach. Not one single year as a positive head coach game effect. Over the last 3 years he has the worst game effect per season of any coach."

Boom. Told ya. :)
 
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#13
#13
Thanks for posting. Interesting analysis
 
#14
#14
Interesting point in the section about newly hired coaches.

It shows Bret Bielema has a +1.25 coach effect and Butch only has +.67. But, he says the Vols are more talented and picks us to go bowling over the hogs. Petrino has only been gone a year. Everyone was saying they were national title contenders just a year ago. Assuming most of the players are the same now, did Bobby being coach have that much effect on that team?
 
#16
#16
daj2576 said:
That is the interesting part about it all. My system showed that UT had the talent to go 9-3 last year. It also shows that UT has vastly been under performing for a better part of a decade. In fact, UT is one of the largest under-achievers in the SEC. This guy's website draws almost the exact same conclusions.

When I came up with this hypothesis, I wanted to see if there was a way to mathematically determine what the expectations on a coach should be. In other words, was Dooley really as bad as many fans thought? The answer: yes. I was shocked as I started to find out how closely correlated talent averages were to predicting seasonal outcomes. What really blew my mind was when I used this evaluation for the BCS championship game, and found that almost 90% of the time (lone exception Texas v. USC), the team with the higher talent evaluation won the game.

Dooley is/was a chronic under achiever. His measured effect on seasonal outcomes is in the -3 to -4 games a year range. Jones is the opposite.
Click to expand...


This makes total sense since I thought that the loss to Vanderbilt in 2005 was one of the most disgusting lack of efforts I have ever seen by a UT team. Fulmer had already lost it and only thanks to Cutcliffe was he able to pull the rabbit out of a hat in 2007.
 
#17
#17
I like it and I've been saying 8 n 4 just because of hiring Jones n our current talent level. Anything less and we r back to underachievers ...IMO
 
#19
#19
vavolunteer said:
Interesting point in the section about newly hired coaches.

It shows Bret Bielema has a +1.25 coach effect and Butch only has +.67. But, he says the Vols are more talented and picks us to go bowling over the hogs. Petrino has only been gone a year. Everyone was saying they were national title contenders just a year ago. Assuming most of the players are the same now, did Bobby being coach have that much effect on that team?
Click to expand...

Does the coaching effect consider coaches' recruiting abillity? If not, then I'd take CBJ at a 0.67 over Bielema at 1.25 considering Butch seems to be a much stronger recruiter.
 
#20
#20
Ashevolle said:
Does the coaching effect consider coaches' recruiting abillity? If not, then I'd take CBJ at a 0.67 over Bielema at 1.25 considering Butch seems to be a much stronger recruiter.
Click to expand...

At one point he calls Jones a +1 coach, and elsewhere calls him a +.67. I might misunderstand his methodology but I am coming up with +2 or greater. Ill take Jones over Bielema any day.
 
#22
#22
daj2576 said:
At one point he calls Jones a +1 coach, and elsewhere calls him a +.67. I might misunderstand his methodology but I am coming up with +2 or greater. Ill take Jones over Bielema any day.
Click to expand...

So your numbers say 7-5. Is this based on talent or is the coach effect factored in?

I honestly believe we have a coach that wants to be here and will bring us back to prominence. I truly believe he loves UT as much as we as fans do and CPF does.

Thank you for your breakdowns. I really enjoy them.
 
#24
#24
vavolunteer said:
Interesting point in the section about newly hired coaches.

It shows Bret Bielema has a +1.25 coach effect and Butch only has +.67. But, he says the Vols are more talented and picks us to go bowling over the hogs. Petrino has only been gone a year. Everyone was saying they were national title contenders just a year ago. Assuming most of the players are the same now, did Bobby being coach have that much effect on that team?
Click to expand...

My numbers showed that Petrino was consistently in a class by himself insofar as his positive effect on talent. Last year's results were actually exactly as Arkansas' talent would predict. Did you read his comment about Sumlin? Something to the effect of "one year wonder"? That probably means, aTm shouldn't expect that level of success again. I agree.
 
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#25
#25
Obsessed said:
So your numbers say 7-5. Is this based on talent or is the coach effect factored in?

I honestly believe we have a coach that wants to be here and will bring us back to prominence. I truly believe he loves UT as much as we as fans do and CPF does.

Thank you for your breakdowns. I really enjoy them.
Click to expand...

My numbers say 7-5 based on talent alone. Jones was talent +0 his first year at Cincy when he won 4 games, so I am going conservative and predicting nothing more than competent coaching in year one. That is a huge improvement over what we have had for a better part of a decade, truth be told, even if it is "only" 7 wins. After year one, with a solid recruiting class and a full season in system, I am giddy to think about what Jones is capable of.
 
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