Statistics tell the whole story. Independently verified?

#27
#27
Am I reading this right?

New coaches taking over a 5-7 team generally go 6-6 next season, with 8 out of 11 of these coaches winning an average of 2.1 games more their first season?

That's promising.
 
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#28
#28
But there's this thing about our schedule and playing in the sec
 
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#31
#31
StoVol said:
But there's this thing about our schedule and playing in the sec
Click to expand...

What would that "thing" be?

The SEC is actually the conference with the highest level of predictability. Mr. Bartoo and I both find that the ability to predict SEC games by using talent is in the 80%+ range.
 
#32
#32
Catbone said:
Does this take depth and injuries in to consideration as well? SIAP
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Nope, you can get to a greater than 2/3 prediction ability without even looking at depth or injury. Like it or not, injuries and attrition are similar across the board. Some teams do suffer an exceptional amount of both, but when you are getting to a level of 2/3-3/4 (or more) of the games can be predicted just by using four year talent averages from a website like rivals, how much more can you ask for?

This guy, Dave Bartoo, says that he factors out attrition but he is showing a correlation about 10% higher than mine. I can get to 2/3 without factoring out attrition and by only using rivals numbers.

Here is his audio explanation of this very simple system...

http://cfbmatrix.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/How-Do-I-Predict-Wins-and-Loss-with-the-Matrix.mp3
 
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#34
#34
Very, very interesting daj. I am pretty set on a 6-6 year, but I will be interested to see how this season shapes up.
 
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#35
#35
Not trying to be a jerk or sunshine pumper, But in any formulated analysis, are Seniors that are fed up with losing taken into account? I believe on a shear fighting spirit, and a spirit of "not again", it changes everything. Can that be figured into systems modeled for predictions?
 
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#41
#41
I'd like to see the numbers run on returning experience at qb. This is just as big of a predictor as coaching is IMO. You could conclude that they are correlated but not necessarily causative
 
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#45
#45
GrowVol said:
Not trying to be a jerk or sunshine pumper, But in any formulated analysis, are Seniors that are fed up with losing taken into account? I believe on a shear fighting spirit, and a spirit of "not again", it changes everything. Can that be figured into systems modeled for predictions?
Click to expand...

I believe you are looking for distinctions that make no real difference, at least in seasonal outcomes.

It is just basically that talent=success.
 
#47
#47
Everyone: I am also having trouble pulling the website up on mobile. I have no trouble accessing it on a computer, any computer. Are those of you who are saying that you have trouble viewing the link doing so on a mobile device?
 
#48
#48
StoVol said:
I'd like to see the numbers run on returning experience at qb. This is just as big of a predictor as coaching is IMO. You could conclude that they are correlated but not necessarily causative
Click to expand...

Maybe those kind of things would make the correlation even higher, but when you get a level of 2/3 of the games predicted without looking for anything else, aren't you being a little greedy?
:)
 
#49
#49
daj2576 said:
I believe you are looking for distinctions that make no real difference, at least in seasonal outcomes.

It is just basically that talent=success.
Click to expand...

Hungry and determined D lineman don't make a difference in seasonal outcomes??? are you joking???
 
#50
#50
dembewbs said:
“There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
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I am not forcing you to believe. You either understand that these correlations are so strong as to not be ignored, or you can continue to believe that college football is a series of random events.

If that is the case, why recruit at all? Walk ons, with good enough coaching, could potentially beat anyone.

If that is the case, betting on Football in Vegas would be as simple as picking winners and losers. A spread is only necessary if picking winners/losers is actually predictable. This is just one system that can predict within a range of 2/3-3/4 of the time the amount of games that will be won based on nothing but recruiting.

I have personally seen systems that are far more complex, generally based on the same idea, that actually work well enough to consistently beat the spread.
 
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