Statistics tell the whole story. Independently verified?

[Lonnie Utah]

This isn't "theoretical physics" this is football. Iv'e been watching football for almost 50 years now and have seen countless games where the team that was supposed to win lost and the team that was supposed to lose won. Football is played on the field not in calculations. There probably is something to these theories which is all they are but there are too many variables in the human equation to place stock or even bet on it. Here is my take. Watch a few games being sure to have some Jack Daniels!! Enjoy the games and save physics for the classroom. I kinda like the chaos theories myself. :hi:

Thank you, that's pretty much exactly what my post was getting at. I got my Masters at App State so, I get to skip the Underdog/Any Given Saturday part of the lecture.

Just because likelihood is variable doesn't mean the number of observable factors leading to a binary outcome is infinite.

AND, this is key: even if the number of variables leading to a binary outcome approaches infinity--which one could imagine in field like astrophysics but certainly not in a prescribed game like football--there will always be a smaller subset of factors involved which have strong correlation to one outcome or the other.

I'm not sure what astrophysics has to do with football, but the simple understated point I was trying to make is that unlike a coin toss, there are other factors that influence the outcome of a football game (a fact on which we both obviously agree). However, I never said those factors were infinite.

These factors, when looked at in the aggregate, give us an insight as to the probability that a given team will prevail in a sporting event. Another fact I think we both agree on.

My post was in response to over simplified version of events you gave, which was a coin toss or a 50/50 outcome for binary event with little to no outside stimuli.

My premise was simply that in most sporting events there is a favorite, and the higher the probability that one team will win the more strongly favored that team is. That could be 90%/10% or it could be 51%/49%. Either way, those aren't 50/50 or the coin toss model. I gave no indication of how one arrived at determining which team was the favorite or why, just that there was one. So I never espoused the infinite variable theory. I might agree that the factors effecting the outcome of a sporting event could be described as a N-dimensional hyperspace, but I'll agree that N ≠ ∞.

I think we are closer in agreement on points than not.

 

[Obsessed]

I see smart people

 

[daj2576]

HA! My grandpa took a German sniper round a week after dropping into Normandy, came back with a steel plate in his head, and was still sharper than any Bama fan I've ever met.

Also, he really helped TV reception in those days before cable!!!

Two of my father's uncles jumped into Normandy with the 101st as Pathfinders. One was captured and later escaped. The other ended up being the senior enlisted instructor over Airborne School, at Ft. Benning Georgia. I didn't know that when I went through jump school in 1999.

 

[sjt18]

What I was trying to communicate, and you beautifully point out, is that on any given Saturday I can watch several football games and generally know the majority of the results before the games are even played.

Absolutely... and more often or not you will know the competitiveness of the game before it starts.:good!:

I am not now, nor have I ever, tried to communicate that I ALWAYS know how these things turn out. This certainly makes me wish I had never found these evil numbers. I mean that I like not knowing, more than I like knowing.

The curse of knowledge is real. lol

Yeah. The way I took the opposition to what you posted was that any exception disproves the general usefulness of the model. That simply isn't true. Give me an investment that returns 30% about 75% of the time and loses 30% the other time... and I'll take it every day.

I have worked for people who would not pull the trigger without 99% certainty. They lose money being too deliberate.

 

[sjt18]

Oh, and for me, that's why last year was so difficult. The talent was there. Every week (for the first 7 or so) you could find good reasons to hope that it would "kick in". It never did. In fact, it got so bad that Vandy and Mizzou beat UT with far less talent.

People keep trying to give Mizzou love. I live in MO. I have a son that goes to Mizzou... so I don't have to apologize when I say that their talent level is down in the UK range.

 

[daj2576]

Oh, and for me, that's why last year was so difficult. The talent was there. Every week (for the first 7 or so) you could find good reasons to hope that it would "kick in". It never did. In fact, it got so bad that Vandy and Mizzou beat UT with far less talent.

People keep trying to give Mizzou love. I live in MO. I have a son that goes to Mizzou... so I don't have to apologize when I say that their talent level is down in the UK range.

You are certainly close with your assessment. The bottom three in the SEC east are Mizzou, Vandy and Kentucky. Vandy jumped Kentucky for this season for the first time since I have started doing this analysis.

The Vandy game was lost the week before against Mizzou. I think at that point, when the game was well in hand and Dooley let his final chance slip away, the players knew there was no hope and gave up. Some have suggested that at that point some players intentionally tried to get him ousted with their performance against Vandy.

You are ultimately right. Last season we had the talent, as shown by our offensive performance against both Florida and UGA. The defense, the same defense who was top 30 the year before, was hopelessly under prepared and ill coached. I feel like some of the offensive drop off will be offset by the improvement in the defense.

You only have to score more points than your opponent. If your defense is going to give the opponent 7 points every time they are on the field, you have to have a super powerful and efficient offense. The inverse is also true. The key will be how much the defense can improve to compensate for the loss of offense.

 

[WhitewaterVol]

In conclusion, based on the formula... UT should win ___ games. Anyone?

Based on the formula linked in the first post, 7 games. The article hedges it a bit by saying 7.5 is their favorite number.

AP win
WKU win
Oregon close loss
Florida loss
South Alabama win
Georgia close loss
USCjr win
Alabama loss
Missouri win
Auburn close win
Vandy win
Kensucky win

That is what that site linked predicts using their model. Looks like a pretty sound prediction to me for a number of reasons. Living in South Carolina now I'd really, really love to see us roast the chickens. The weird thing is the weekly predictions come up to 8-4 but he is predicting overall 7-5 with a possible loss to Auburn.

 

[Catbone]

Based on the formula linked in the first post, 7 games. The article hedges it a bit by saying 7.5 is their favorite number.

AP win
WKU win
Oregon close loss
Florida loss
South Alabama win
Georgia close loss
USCjr win
Alabama loss
Missouri win
Auburn close win
Vandy win
Kensucky win

That is what that site linked predicts using their model. Looks like a pretty sound prediction to me for a number of reasons. Living in South Carolina now I'd really, really love to see us roast the chickens.

:hi: thanks. very interesting!

 

[tm3]

I have personally seen systems that are far more complex, generally based on the same idea, that actually work well enough to consistently beat the spread.

If I had that I would quit my day job

 

[RagingOrange]

Many of you read my discussions on talent evaluations as a way to predict football games (generally: 2/3 of the time, a four year trailing talent average can predict seasonal outcomes).

Some of you even participated in some threads where I developed and tested this process (thank you for the mature discussion and insight).

Today, I stumbled across a website where someone is using a very similar system to the one that I tripped upon.

Here is his page dedicated to UT evaluations.-->Tennenessee Vols 2013 Football Preview

Notice some similarities to things that we have already discussed, 1) He predicts UT will go 7-5 or 8-4 this year, exactly the same prediction that my numbers show, 2) He says that Jones had a +1 effect at Cincinnati. My numbers suggest it was +2 if you average in the first year where he was +0, or +3 if you consider his first year at Cincy to be an outlyer., 3) He suggests that UT v. Oregon will be a much closer game than most believe. Ditto.

I found this website to be fascinating, and also a little humbling. I thought I had stumbled upon something really unique. This guy has been doing something very similar for several years, apparently. I also laughed when I read through some of his statements about how many people completely reject this system, no matter how strong the data.

He also adds more and other details about the likelihood of success for a first year coach. This is definitely an interesting read.

Quality post. Thanks for the analysis...best Ive read here in days.

 

[RagingOrange]

I see smart people

:lolabove:
I saw charts and started sweating like I was in a advanced statistics class!

 

[daj2576]

If I had that I would quit my day job

You're not the only one.