stock market was up today...

[volinbham]

back out of correction territory

 

[1972 Grad]

You're telling me earnings climbed 4% from Friday?

I think people realized the drop was a knee jerk reaction, and that it was oversold. There was no reason for that big of a drop.

 

[Velo Vol]

The market signals future earnings based on information available today. You are not very good at this.

What information changed since Friday?

 

[Ernest T. Vol]

What information changed between Friday and today?

Nothing much, except there may be an oversold condition in the short term. The average drop when a crisis hits is around 13%. The market is still doing price discovery on the virus. I wouldn't be surprised to retest the lows in coming days.

 

[1972 Grad]

back out of correction territory

I got back a little over a third of what I lost last week...…………..for now.

 

[05_never_again]

What information changed since Friday?

Nothing. It's a market. The selling was obviously exhausted (there literally just weren't many left) on a short-term basis, but you only know that in hindsight because it ramped hard today.

In particular, the big ramp from about 2:45 into the close is likely short covering by guys who went short into the weekend thinking more bad news was coming, but we opened higher this morning and rallied all day, putting pressure on them to cover. Honestly, on a real short-term basis, it's probably overcooked to the upside. AAPL was up over 9% today and has already made up about half its losses since the most recent high. The non-stop green candles into the close like that typically aren't systematic buying by institutions...it's traders throwing away short positions and/or profit-taking.

Personally, I'd become more bullish if we went back down to the lows over the next few weeks, bounced off them, and rallied. That'll help determine if dip buying is still a thing or if the market psychology has changed from buying dips to selling rallies.

 

[MontyPython]

Oh lawd

Yeah. I was dead wrong today. Still bearish but maybe that's a good thing.

 

[Velo Vol]

Nothing. It's a market.

It's a crazy world and you chartists (if I understood your take correctly last week) are among the craziest.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

I think people realized the drop was a knee jerk reaction, and that it was oversold. There was no reason for that big of a drop.

People sell into the weekend because no one wants to be caught holding the bag when bad news comes out Saturday or Sunday. Nothing major to report so up we go.

 

[05_never_again]

It's a crazy world and you chartists (if I understood your take correctly last week) are among the craziest.

Based on your comments here, you definitely have a false picture of how markets operate and what people who use technical analysis actually do. You seem like one of those people that thinks there's an explanation out there for every jot and tittle, and when one can't be provided that means nobody knows what they're talking about.

Looking at past performance isn't a fortune telling system, just like looking at past financial statements (fundamental analysis) isn't either. It's about determining risk/reward.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Hey @evillawyer wall street posts biggest points gains ever! Absolutes are what matters right not percentages? LMAO

 

[NorthDallas40]

back out of correction territory

Gonna wait a bit longer before I tip my toe back in the water. More deaths in US announced today and FEMA is preparing for an emergency declaration.

 

[Velo Vol]

Based on your comments here, you definitely have a false picture of how markets operate and what people who use technical analysis actually do. You seem like one of those people that thinks there's an explanation out there for every jot and tittle, and when one can't be provided that means nobody knows what they're talking about.

Looking at past performance isn't a fortune telling system, just like looking at past financial statements (fundamental analysis) isn't either. It's about determining risk/reward.

Hard to put in words exactly how I view it. Kind of like when the sports analysts come out and half time of a televised game and basically say, "Disregard what we said pre-game, here's what's really happening" (after they quickly revise the charts to emphasize a trend).

 

[VolStrom]

Damn, I could have sold everything a month ago and bought back Friday and made money. I can't believe I couldn't predict this.

 

[05_never_again]

Hard to put in words exactly how I view it. Kind of like when the sports analysts come out and half time of a televised game and basically say, "Disregard what we said pre-game, here's what's really happening" (after they quickly revise the charts to emphasize a trend).

You need to follow some better technicians then if the ones you follow use charts to make predictions, then change trendlines on a chart after the fact to "explain" what occurred. That's just sophistry, not any sort of analysis.

Technical analysis is an analysis of risk/reward more than anything. A basic "rule" (don't take that term too literally) is that past resistance becomes future support. We had a violent selloff (12%+) combined with the fact that we started coming into an area (not some specific level, but a general area) that the market struggled to get over last year, but eventually did. It doesn't take any sort of great insight to say what I said Thursday after the close that we were coming into an area where people would "start looking for it to bounce." If you bought Thursday at the close, you'd be in the green. At that point, it seemed reasonable to think the risks over the next several days would be to the upside, not so much further to the downside. We sold off again Friday at the open but have been almost straight up ever since.

 

[Velo Vol]

Everything's fine.

 

[lawgator1]

50 basis point cut, and 90 minutes later the Dow is down 500 points.

Trump's head must be exploding.

 

[ETV]

Everything's fine.

Seems you've been gloating considerably since the market has gone into correction territory.

 

[Velo Vol]

Seems you've been gloating considerably since the market has gone into correction territory.

Gloating? Or showing healthy skepticism toward the "booming economy" tale?

 

[volsarelife1]

Gloating? Or showing healthy skepticism toward the "booming economy" tale?

What I made on my stocks this past year shows it's definitely booming.

 

[Vol737]

Gloating? Or showing healthy skepticism toward the "booming economy" tale?

Tale? What your seeing is normal cyclical response to 1) an overheated market trying to find a new equilibrium and 2) trying to find its footing in the midst of a virus outbreak that is not contained yet that has had an effect on said markets. I’m not sure what you were expecting, but this is one of those things you just get through...and we will.

 

[ETV]

Heck yeah.

Still falling.

"since"

He should hold another one, this time flanked by Limbaugh, Hannity, and other RedHats claiming coronavirus is a DeepState/Democratic hoax.

It's happening.

Gloating? Or showing healthy skepticism toward the "booming economy" tale?

That's not a display of skepticism.

 

[05_never_again]

Tale? What your seeing is normal cyclical response to 1) an overheated market trying to find a new equilibrium and 2) trying to find its footing in the midst of a virus outbreak that is not contained yet that has had an effect on said markets. I’m not sure what you were expecting, but this is one of those things you just get through...and we will.

Yep. It was a highly ramped market that now has to deal with a situation that is very difficult to figure out how to price in.

50 basis point cut, and 90 minutes later the Dow is down 500 points.

Trump's head must be exploding.

It was up over 5% yesterday and is up almost 6% from Friday's low. Markets are discounting mechanisms. I bet we re-test the lows at some point.

 

[Velo Vol]

That's not a display of skepticism.

I believe it is.

Also,

 

[Vol737]

Day Trader’s paradise right now.