stock market was up today...

#8,833
#8,833
headhunter15 said:
So, what is going to be the impact we see from this? I have no clue when it comes to stocks or economics?
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I don't think anyone knows. Honestly a lot of it feels like self induced panic at this point to me.

Impact- don't look at your investment statements/401k statements if they are heavy in the stock market.
 
#8,835
#8,835
Current open is -1200 points.

I bought a bit of oil friday morning, a leveraged 3x ETN based on Nymex. That will be worth nothing Monday morning. Literally zero.
 
#8,836
#8,836
headhunter15 said:
So what are we looking at for this week? What’s going on to cause this sudden fall? The oil? Coronavirus fears?
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Kind of smells like capitulation to me. Maybe one more crappy week (if there's minimal news events). It will be interesting to see if the drop at the open continues well into the trading day or is creeping back up by lunch. I'd love to see some stats on margin calls (any frequent traders here know of a source for that data?). Those that were below 50% equity at the start of this correction are getting hammered, losing sleep, and scrambling to cover their MCs. Anybody that was 60/40 debt/equity or more leveraged at the start is having portfolio fire sales. Unless they levered short positions.

It will also be interesting to see if the bottom is near. Will prices hang here for a while? I think that the programmed trading probably sparks just as violent of a surge to the upside. Once it starts moving up, buyers will come out in mass worried about missing the opportunity. Buckle up fellers!
 
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#8,837
#8,837
lawgator1 said:
Current open is -1200 points.

I bought a bit of oil friday morning, a leveraged 3x ETN based on Nymex. That will be worth nothing Monday morning. Literally zero.
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I'm on board in the other direction. I trimmed some OILD Friday when it spiked after the Opec+ talks broke down, but I'm still holding 1000 shares and 2000 shares of GLD.

Did you buy before or after the Opec+ meeting broke on Friday?
 
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#8,838
#8,838
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Kind of smells like capitulation to me. Maybe one more crappy week (if there's minimal news events). It will be interesting to see if the drop at the open continues well into the trading day or is creeping back up by lunch. I'd love to see some stats on margin calls (any frequent traders here know of a source for that data?). Those that were below 50% equity at the start of this correction are getting hammered, losing sleep, and scrambling to cover their MCs. Anybody that was 60/40 debt/equity or more leveraged at the start is having portfolio fire sales. Unless they levered short positions.

It will also be interesting to see if the bottom is near. Will prices hang here for a while? I think that the programmed trading probably sparks just as violent of a surge to the upside. Once it starts moving up, buyers will come out in mass worried about missing the opportunity. Buckle up fellers!
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We need the number of coronavirus cases to stabilize, or more likely for the mortality rate to turn out to be very low once better known.

With China slowly coming back on line, it would be nice to see commodities demand bounce back, too.
 
#8,840
#8,840
TheColdVolTruth said:
I'm on board in the other direction. I trimmed some OILD Friday when it spiked after the Opec+ talks broke down, but I'm still holding 1000 shares and 2000 shares of GLD.

Did you buy before or after the Opec+ meeting broke on Friday?
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By the way, well done on the OILD. Even with daily expense and reset, the opening upside on that in the morning is going to be better than 60% to the upside for you, right?
 
#8,841
#8,841
I mean Nymex is down 25 % this weekend.

Good news is I suppose that has process should go down markedly in a couple of months.
 
#8,842
#8,842
lawgator1 said:
By the way, well done on the OILD. Even with daily expense and reset, the opening upside on that in the morning is going to be better than 60% to the upside for you, right?
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Thanks. It's a 3x inverse of WTI futures. I have traded it several times over the last year. Specifically after the Saudi Aramco refinery was attacked by Iran, the strike on Soleimani, and when flights started being cancelled due to coronavirus. It has tracked well over the week or two after each of those events, but I am curious to see how well it acts tomorrow with such a sharp move. I typically haven't held it more than two weeks at any point, and I will most likely be exiting my current position tomorrow.
 
#8,843
#8,843
TheColdVolTruth said:
Thanks. It's a 3x inverse of WTI futures. I have traded it several times over the last year. Specifically after the Saudi Aramco refinery was attacked by Iran, the strike on Soleimani, and when flights started being cancelled due to coronavirus. It has tracked well over the week or two after each of those events, but I am curious to see how well it acts tomorrow with such a sharp move. I typically haven't held it more than two weeks at any point, and I will most likely be exiting my current position tomorrow.
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Makes sense. Take the big profit. Let it stabilize. You can always reenter if you think Russia and S.A. will continue the infighting.
 
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#8,844
#8,844
lawgator1 said:
We need the number of coronavirus cases to stabilize, or more likely for the mortality rate to turn out to be very low once better known.

With China slowly coming back on line, it would be nice to see commodities demand bounce back, too.
Click to expand...

Those handful of cases hitting Americans have likely sparked a panic.
 
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#8,845
#8,845
TheColdVolTruth said:
Thanks. It's a 3x inverse of WTI futures. I have traded it several times over the last year. Specifically after the Saudi Aramco refinery was attacked by Iran, the strike on Soleimani, and when flights started being cancelled due to coronavirus. It has tracked well over the week or two after each of those events, but I am curious to see how well it acts tomorrow with such a sharp move. I typically haven't held it more than two weeks at any point, and I will most likely be exiting my current position tomorrow.
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I used to peel off small profits on the financials version. FAZ and FAS. I think they're 3x. I haven't looked at them recently.
 
#8,846
#8,846
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Those handful of cases hitting Anericans have likely sparked a panic.
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It's a bad confluence of events. A broad slow down already in progress, accelerated by the virus, accelerated by Chinese economy in real trouble, accelerated by Japan in deep trouble, then you take a huge hit to the airlines and to travel industry world wide. And now the price of oil plummets by 25 percent overnight , which kills the US shale companies.

Its ugly.
 
#8,847
#8,847
TheColdVolTruth said:
Thanks. It's a 3x inverse of WTI futures. I have traded it several times over the last year. Specifically after the Saudi Aramco refinery was attacked by Iran, the strike on Soleimani, and when flights started being cancelled due to coronavirus. It has tracked well over the week or two after each of those events, but I am curious to see how well it acts tomorrow with such a sharp move. I typically haven't held it more than two weeks at any point, and I will most likely be exiting my current position tomorrow.
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UWT, the 3x I was in, closed at $4.02 Friday. If the 25 % drop sticks overnight, it should open at approx. $1.

I bought at $4.28.

Luckily not a lot of it. But my expectation that S.A. and Russia would come to terms was ... in error.
 
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