stock market was up today...

#9,026
#9,026
MontyPython said:
Couple points:

* It's the "1%" not the ".01%".
* Most people are, in fact, in the stock market via 401Ks.
* It's "precious metals", not "heavy metals" that serve as havens during panics.
* The market rarely goes straight up or straight down.
* "Never catch a falling knife" is a good maxim to follow during times like these.
* Wait until the market shows signs of bottoming before buying heavily, unless you're in it for the long run.
* A "recession" in the market is generally defined as a 20% pull back in prices. That's around 23.5K DJIA.
*These are untested waters for markets. People have no clue of the potential economic effects.

Personally, I believe this panic will be short-lived... a matter of weeks or a few months. But, I suspect we're already in an economic recession, and that things will only get worse in the near future. More schools will close, more businesses will go telecommute, more State of Emergencies. This will further erode the markets.

30% from the top - around 20.5K - seems like a good place to start buying again, but if we break the 20K psychological barrier, a 40% to 50% total retracement is possible.
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Couple things:

- If a regular Joe who invests mostly via a 401(k) and are far away from retirement, just continue your systematic contributions. If you sell now then wait until the market has "shown signs of bottoming" before getting back in, in all likelihood you are selling low, buying high, and moving in and out of the market all at once instead of easing in over time. There are people who like to trade, and there's an even smaller number of people who are good at it. An average Joe should absolutely NOT be trying to do that with a 401(k).
- A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I think you're thinking of the popular definition of a bear market, which is a major stock index off 20% from it's most recent high. A better definition of a bear market is a longer (1-2 years), protracted decline that coincides with a recession. The simple "20% off a high" definition deems things like the December 2018 decline as a bear market, which is much better thought of as a correction within a long bull market. Periods like 2007-08 and 2000-02 were bear markets.
 
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#9,027
#9,027
05_never_again said:
Couple things:

- If a regular Joe who invests mostly via a 401(k) and are far away from retirement, just continue your systematic contributions. If you sell now then wait until the market has "shown signs of bottoming" before getting back in, in all likelihood you are selling low, buying high, and moving in and out of the market all at once instead of easing in over time. There are people who like to trade, and there's an even smaller number of people who are good at it. An average Joe should absolutely NOT be trying to do that with a 401(k).
- A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I think you're thinking of the popular definition of a bear market, which is a major stock index off 20% from it's most recent high. A better definition of a bear market is a longer (1-2 years), protracted decline that coincides with a recession. The simple "20% off a high" definition deems things like the December 2018 decline as a bear market, which is much better thought of as a correction within a long bull market. Periods like 2007-08 and 2000-02 were bear markets.
Click to expand...

Good stuff!

Yes, I meant bear market definition at 20% decline.
 
#9,028
#9,028
MontyPython said:
Couple points:

* It's the "1%" not the ".01%".
* Most people are, in fact, in the stock market via 401Ks.
* It's "precious metals", not "heavy metals" that serve as havens during panics.
* The market rarely goes straight up or straight down.
* "Never catch a falling knife" is a good maxim to follow during times like these.
* Wait until the market shows signs of bottoming before buying heavily, unless you're in it for the long run.
* A "recession" in the market is generally defined as a 20% pull back in prices. That's around 23.5K DJIA.
*These are untested waters for markets. People have no clue of the potential economic effects.

Personally, I believe this panic will be short-lived... a matter of weeks or a few months. But, I suspect we're already in an economic recession, and that things will only get worse in the near future. More schools will close, more businesses will go telecommute, more State of Emergencies. This will further erode the markets.

30% from the top - around 20.5K - seems like a good place to start buying again, but if we break the 20K psychological barrier, a 40% to 50% total retracement is possible.
Click to expand...
A 20% pullback is a “Bear” market.
A recession is defined by GDP, not the Market.
 
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#9,030
#9,030
1569546820894.jpeg
 
#9,031
#9,031
What is the opinion of the board? Is this more natural correction or Coronavirus? I know both are playing a part, but which is affecting the market more?
 
#9,032
#9,032
MontyPython said:
*eyeroll*

"Heavy metals are generally defined as metals with relatively high densities, atomic weights, or atomic numbers. ... The earliest known metals—common metals such as iron, copper, and tin, and precious metals such as silver, gold, and platinum—are heavy metals."

Wikipedia › wiki › Heavy_metals
Heavy metals - Wikipedia
Click to expand...
Not surprisingly, you don't get it.
 
#9,033
#9,033
rjd970 said:
What is the opinion of the board? Is this more natural correction or Coronavirus? I know both are playing a part, but which is affecting the market more?
Click to expand...

The corona virus was the trigger. Equities were overdue for a bear market or correction and the health scare is pushing it over the edge. It would be worse if Bernie took office.
 
#9,035
#9,035
rjd970 said:
What is the opinion of the board? Is this more natural correction or Coronavirus? I know both are playing a part, but which is affecting the market more?
Click to expand...


The stage was set by an overheated market and irrational valuations, plus lots of predictions of a setback in the making. Coronavirus triggered the worst. And now has taken over die to economic impact.

Agree with others. Tomorrow will be really bad. Trump looked resigned to it, too.
 
#9,041
#9,041
Velo Vol said:
If you thought stocks were cheap a few days ago, you're going to love today.

Wheeee.
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I still wouldn't be surprised if they hit one of the 15 minute trade suspensions. Maybe not as bad as no transportation of goods between the Europe and US, but it will be nothing but bad news fueling panic selling after yesterdays events. NBA canceling games, colleges shutting down classes early, travel bans, etc.
 
#9,042
#9,042
The next couple months are going to be very interesting, not just economically, but for society in general.
 
#9,043
#9,043
Velo Vol said:
The next couple months are going to be very interesting, not just economically, but for society in general.
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Most of us will get through this one.
What I'm interested in is: what will happen with the next one and after this one?

Will we (over) react sooner?

Will we fail to learn from this one if it turns out to have been more a dud than a real catastrophe? Or even if it is a catastrophe (which it is for some both physical and economic)?

Will the economy bounce back "bigly"?

Will people go back in time to the lifestyle that was temporarily abandoned?

Cruises, air travel, tourism, conferences, sporting events, etc?

What will we do with all that damn toilet paper?
 
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#9,044
#9,044
37L1 said:
Will we fail to learn from this one if it turns out to have been more a dud then a real catastrophe? Or even if it is a catastrophe (which it is for some both physical and economic)?
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America has a short attention span, so either way (unless it's really bad) I think the "lessons" will be mostly forgotten in a few years. See 9/11.
 
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#9,045
#9,045
Velo Vol said:
Why would it be?
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There are three limit switches. If it falls 7% in a trading session then trading halts for 15 minutes. Once it resumes there’s another 15 minute halt if it falls around 15% don’t remember the actual number. If it falls 20% in one trading session trades are halted for the remainder of the day.
 
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#9,048
#9,048
Believe it or not, it's a good indicator that there aren't pages and pages of VN poster comments right now. Hopefully it's a microcosm of the whole country and the panic is subsiding. NYSE reopening in a minute or two.
 
#9,049
#9,049
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Believe it or not, it's a good indicator that there aren't pages and pages of VN poster comments right now. Hopefully it's a microcosm of the whole country and the panic is subsiding. NYSE reopening in a minute or two.
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When something happens multiple times, even within a short period of time, you get used to it even if it sucks. The selloff during the financial crisis was that way, particularly as we got closer to the bottom in early 2009. There'd be another 3-4% down day, and the attitude became kind of "oh well."

The big difference then was that the market was already a year removed and 30-40% off the old high. We were at the old high less than 3 weeks ago, and we initially started getting these large declines just 3-4% away from it. This is a 1987-type event that has happened over the course of a few weeks instead of 1-2 days.
 
#9,050
#9,050
05_never_again said:
When something happens multiple times, even within a short period of time, you get used to it even if it sucks. The selloff during the financial crisis was that way, particularly as we got closer to the bottom in early 2009. There'd be another 3-4% down day, and the attitude became kind of "oh well."

The big difference then was that the market was already a year removed and 30-40% off the old high. We were at the old high less than 3 weeks ago, and we initially started getting these large declines just 3-4% away from it. This is a 1987-type event that has happened over the course of a few weeks instead of 1-2 days.
Click to expand...

It always overshoots on the way up and on the way down. IMO the algorithmic trading has exacerbated it this time. Volume is what, 3x what it was during the dot com crash?
 
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