stock market was up today...

#9,426
#9,426
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I'm starting to think that the worst case scenario is close to being priced in. I drove around yesterday and EVERYTHING is closed or scaled way back. I don't know how things can deteriorate a whole lot more from here. Bankruptcies should be expected. A recession should be expected. Everytime news of these things drops, another buying opporrunity window will open up.
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Some businesses have turned off their lights for the very last time...

Bankruptcies are the least of our worries. Outright failures are on the horizon if this things stretches out past 2 weeks.
 
#9,427
#9,427
Rasputin_Vol said:
From a few days ago...


It wouldn't surprise me if it goes lower.
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This Covid crap needs to end sooner rather than later because I'm afraid that this will plunge the globe into a depression, the likes of which we've never seen before...as bad or worse than the Great Depression.

TBH, I'm wayyy more concerned about this than the virus.
 
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#9,428
#9,428
One thing this crisis has highlighted at a meta-level is that some of these industries have proven to be very short-sighted and to have no memory in terms of failure to have enough cash on hand to survive a stoppage in revenue for any length of time.

The airline industry after 9/11 saw a glimpse of what life would be without people buying tickets. Banking saw what happens when they weren't sufficiently capitalized as a result of 2007/08.

So what happens when they get record income and tax breaks? They buy back stock to effectively increase the top management and stock holder wealth.

Then we have this crisis. Sure, they say they will go without a paycheck for awhile. But no check to them for 2 months is not the same thing as someone barely making it suddenly not being paid for the same two months.

And so what happens? They tell Congress that they need $50 billion to pay people. All because they did not save at all and squandered their good fortune.

IF there are to be these kind of bailouts then we need to see these companies commit to paying back by issuing stock at levels before AND turning the proceeds over to the Treasury. On top of that, they must adopt plans to save funds so as to be prepared to pay their employees for 8- 12 weeks with no business income.
 
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#9,429
#9,429
Matt2496 said:
This Covid crap needs to end sooner rather than later because I'm afraid that this will plunge the globe into a depression, the likes of which we've never seen before...as bad or worse than the Great Depression.

TBH, I'm wayyy more concerned about this than the virus.
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That's just it. It's not just coronavirus. Its domestic shale oil getting hammered because they can't drill and make a profit at these levels... you have an environment that already had near 0% interest rates, now they are at 0% or lower, and you had dozens and dozens of stories over the last 24 months of store closings with the excuse being that Amazon is taking the market share.
Coronavirus presented itself as a convenient excuse for these devils to sellout at the peak of the bubble and skate away without people like you blaming them... instead, you are blaming a virus.

You should be spitting mad right now.
 
#9,431
#9,431
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I'm starting to think that the worst case scenario is close to being priced in. I drove around yesterday and EVERYTHING is closed or scaled way back. I don't know how things can deteriorate a whole lot more from here. Bankruptcies should be expected. A recession should be expected. Everytime news of these things drops, another buying opporrunity window will open up.
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Worst case scenario is definitely not priced in. It's just a question of whether or not we'll get there.

If they continue to do scorched earth quarantines, they are going to need to do them for longer than just 2 weeks. And when they lighten them up, the virus will come back and they'll have to re-institute them until a vaccine is widely available. That's probably 18-36 months away. If we are going off/on quarantine for that long, the base case is a depression, and 30% off the S&P in a month is nowhere near a full pricing in of that.

Here in a few weeks or so, I expect way more widespread questioning of encouraging everyone to quarantine because the economic costs are just too steep. The entire hospitality industry of the world is going to go bankrupt if this continues for much longer, and that has knock on effects that make even the biggest pessimists shudder (mass unemployment, mass social unrest, etc.). They have to allow low-risk people to continue their normal lives at some point.
 
#9,433
#9,433
rjd970 said:
I really think we are going to look back at this in several years as an economic panic, not a biological one.
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This x100000000000000000000000000.

People will not remember how many deaths, because ultimately it isn't going to be that many relative to other pandemics. People will remember how we intentionally destroyed the global economy in order to stop it, even though only a distinct subset of the population (the elderly, those in poor health already) had to truly be afraid of it.
 
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#9,436
#9,436
Rasputin_Vol said:
You should not have faith in this system. They will not save you. There is no bailout for you.
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I've never taken a handout nor did I expect one. The market is a gamble, one way or the other and this time I'm on the losing end.
 
#9,437
#9,437
#9,438
#9,438
hog88 said:
I hope for my kids and grand kids sake we learn from it and don't repeat it.
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Hell, this has been repeated 4 times now in 33 years. You gotta love the modern day robber barons, they always figure out a way to rape what little the middle class has left.
 
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#9,440
#9,440
Rasputin_Vol said:
A Problem Emerges: Lawmakers Balk At Boeing Bailout, Compare It To AIG
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They need to be saved, but the entire management team and all stock holders need to be wiped out.

boeing%20stock%20buybacks_0.jpg
 
#9,445
#9,445
05_never_again said:
This x100000000000000000000000000.

People will not remember how many deaths, because ultimately it isn't going to be that many relative to other pandemics. People will remember how we intentionally destroyed the global economy in order to stop it, even though only a distinct subset of the population (the elderly, those in poor health already) had to truly be afraid of it.
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You must realize that you are factually wrong about it only being a threat to the elderly and those in poor health. While they are at greater risk there are still plenty of cases of young people ending up in hospitals and needing significant medical care. Some have died.
 
#9,446
#9,446
lawgator1 said:
You must realize that you are factually wrong about it only being a threat to the elderly and those in poor health. While they are at greater risk there are still plenty of cases of young people ending up in hospitals and needing significant medical care. Some have died.
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If the statistics are to be believed, literally nobody in Italy under 50 that is healthy has died. Nobody under 30, healthy or not, has died. Over half that have died had multiple other conditions. Countless others don’t even show symptoms.

Not saying measures and concern isn’t warranted, but it is not as bleak as you and some want to make it out to be.
 
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#9,448
#9,448
midnight orange said:
The spot price of silver is below $13 but you can’t get a bag of junk silver without paying $7 over spot. Something weird is going on,
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Silver Eagles are $6 over spot online
Silver Bars are $4 over spot online

And everything is Sold Out

Edit: Just found some random year Silver Eagles for sale at $24.40, wont ship till April.
Crazy...
 
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#9,449
#9,449
rjd970 said:
Not saying measures and concern isn’t warranted, but it is not as bleak as you and some want to make it out to be.
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Tough call either way.

People don't accept death today the way everyone did before 1950.

Remember Obamacare had a provision that merely provided for doctors to talk about end of life, and half the GOP lost it.
 
#9,450
#9,450
rjd970 said:
If the statistics are to be believed, literally nobody in Italy under 50 that is healthy has died. Nobody under 30, healthy or not, has died. Over half that have died had multiple other conditions. Countless others don’t even show symptoms.

Not saying measures and concern isn’t warranted, but it is not as bleak as you and some want to make it out to be.
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It rapidly mutates. Nobody is safe. It passed from varmints to humans rather than human to human like the flu. It's not currently understood.
 
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