stock market was up today...

#9,453
#9,453
Open for US equities is looking strong. Possible first back-to-back up days in several weeks. Also looking at the worst week in over a decade.
 
#9,454
#9,454
As the unemployment claims come in like a tidal wave and companies report massive losses, this is going to get worse.
 
#9,456
#9,456
lawgator1 said:
You must realize that you are factually wrong about it only being a threat to the elderly and those in poor health. While they are at greater risk there are still plenty of cases of young people ending up in hospitals and needing significant medical care. Some have died.
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Yes, but they are by far the exception, not the rule. People outside of vulnerable groups die of the flu too, but I don't think anybody would say the flu is a "threat" to a healthy 35-year-old. The point is that overall they aren't in the "high risk" group.

The economic damage this is causing is going to be far worse than what the virus does. If this strategy of keeping everyone regardless of risk level in their homes continues beyond 2-3 more weeks, there won't be any hospitality industry left for workers to return to. Is that the price we really want to pay?
 
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#9,457
#9,457
lawgator1 said:
As the unemployment claims come in like a tidal wave and companies report massive losses, this is going to get worse.
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Everybody already knows those numbers are going to be awful. Everybody knows the hospitality industry is going to report massive losses...that's why Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden, Longhorn, etc.) is down 65% in a month, for example. The worry now is the current way we are handling it lasting beyond 2-3 more weeks. Like I said above, there won't be a hospitality industry left if this continues for months.

If that happens, markets will need to price in a depression that lasts multiple quarters, not a sharp shock that lasts 2 quarters.
 
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#9,462
#9,462
Mick said:
Is anyone going to try to predict the bottom?
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In order to predict the bottom you have to predict how long this lockdown-type economy is going to persist.

IMO, the market has already priced in a very sharp but short recession, lasting about 2 quarters that was caused by the economy being locked down for about a month. If this goes on for months on end, or if we're on/off lockdown for months on end (which I'm starting to worry we will be), then the markets need to price in a depression that lasts for 12-18 months. It isn't even close to pricing in that outcome. There won't even be a hospitality industry left if that happens.
 
#9,463
#9,463
05_never_again said:
In order to predict the bottom you have to predict how long this lockdown-type economy is going to persist.

IMO, the market has already priced in a very sharp but short recession, lasting about 2 quarters that was caused by the economy being locked down for about a month. If this goes on for months on end, or if we're on/off lockdown for months on end (which I'm starting to worry we will be), then the markets need to price in a depression that lasts for 12-18 months. It isn't even close to pricing in that outcome. There won't even be a hospitality industry left if that happens.
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What would that be two thirds of our economy is hospitality and healthcare.
 
#9,465
#9,465
For some reason the stock I bought a couple of weeks ago in Iron Lung Inc, ticker LUNG isn't doing too well. I don't understand it.
 
#9,467
#9,467
Mick said:
I hope not.
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I hope not either. However, if the entire hospitality industry was vaporized, I don't see how it could be avoided.

If we did enter depression-like conditions, it's possible we'd "only" return to the old highs from 2000 and 2007, which is 1500 on the S&P. However that's still 37% below current levels, and the total peak-to-trough decline would be almost right at 50%. I really hope not, but that seems possible to me, especially if they don't loosen things up in a few weeks.
 
#9,468
#9,468
05_never_again said:
I hope not either. However, if the entire hospitality industry was vaporized, I don't see how it could be avoided.

If we did enter depression-like conditions, it's possible we'd "only" return to the old highs from 2000 and 2007, which is 1500 on the S&P. However that's still 37% below current levels, and the total peak-to-trough decline would be almost right at 50%. I really hope not, but that seems possible to me, especially if they don't loosen things up in a few weeks.
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What can they loosen? People should just accept the beating and accept the global market was inflated and the American market was inflated and only the rich will survive, your 401K, not so much.
 
#9,472
#9,472
Mick said:
What can they loosen? People should just accept the beating and accept the global market was inflated and the American market was inflated and only the rich will survive, your 401K, not so much.
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The quarantines, either mandatory or suggested.

If the hospitality industry of the United States, and probably the entire world, is to survive, they have to allow people to start congregating again at some point in the near future.
 
#9,474
#9,474
05_never_again said:
The quarantines, either mandatory or suggested.

If the hospitality industry of the United States, and probably the entire world, is to survive, they have to allow people to start congregating again at some point in the near future.
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For the market yes; for the country no. Y2K twenty years late.
 
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