stock market was up today...

#9,530
#9,530
So what's it going to be this week? We've had nothing but bad news. 2 million jobless claims. Revised expected unemployment numbers reaching 20%-30%. Cities are being shut down nationwide and people are wondering if the fed govt will institute a national shelter in place /shutdown/quarantine/whatever you want to call it. There still appears to be no visible timetable for an end or even just some positive news. And it appears Congress still can't agree on a stimulus bill.

Do we test 15k?
 
#9,531
#9,531
TheDeeble said:
So what's it going to be this week? We've had nothing but bad news. 2 million jobless claims. Revised expected unemployment numbers reaching 20%-30%. Cities are being shut down nationwide and people are wondering if the fed govt will institute a national shelter in place /shutdown/quarantine/whatever you want to call it. There still appears to be no visible timetable for an end or even just some positive news. And it appears Congress still can't agree on a stimulus bill.

Do we test 15k?
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It’s going to be brutal. I cut my losses and cashed out my short term account about 10 days ago (I will need the cash in 6 weeks for a house down payment). Leaving my IRA and 401K alone as I’m getting stuff at a discount and it has a 20+ year horizon.

This is going to be ugly for awhile. At this point I don’t even know if 15K will be the bottom. Ugh.

2008 and 2020 are two lifetime type events in a span of 12 years. Just brutal.
 
#9,534
#9,534
This might be a big week for me. I’m sitting on a big chunk of money trying to decide when to get back in. At 15,000/1,900 that’s a 50% pull back. That is a rarity for buying opportunity. If it hits that I don’t see how I can’t put about 50% of my cash in and then hold back and watch and see on the rest. If it goes down a big chunk more then roll the other 50% in and let it ride. If it wallows around for a while wait until the ride back up then back in.

It was initially thought this would be a “sharp V”. If this drags on for four more weeks I don’t see how it can just pop back up.
 
#9,535
#9,535
It won't be a "V". With the country shut down there's no telling what's coming. But at some point, businesses shutting down temporarily don't really equate to valuations being chopped in half or more.
 
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#9,536
#9,536
NorthDallas40 said:
This might be a big week for me. I’m sitting on a big chunk of money trying to decide when to get back in. At 15,000/1,900 that’s a 50% pull back. That is a rarity for buying opportunity. If it hits that I don’t see how I can’t put about 50% of my cash in and then hold back and watch and see on the rest. If it goes down a big chunk more then roll the other 50% in and let it ride. If it wallows around for a while wait until the ride back up then back in.

It was initially thought this would be a “sharp V”. If this drags on for four more weeks I don’t see how it can just pop back up.
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Hard to tell. It’s just so damn uncertain. Logic and history tells you this is a rare buying opportunity, but this is also rare circumstances. If you compare to the Spanish Flu epidemic, this is literally a once every hundred years event.

I don’t know man, but it’s tempting. I have a small amount I can throw back in but I’m scared ****less at this point. Fortune favors the bold and what not, but still.
 
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#9,537
#9,537
Even if it isn’t a sharp V, if it takes a full year or longer to climb back thats 100% ROI in a fairly short time. I’ve never even had an opportunity like this.

But... it could go down further too. Even if it does I keep saying it has to come back up because the time it doesn’t all of our money is useless anyway.

let’s play what if. I’m not going to get fancy I’m just looking at index funds. If I go 50% in at 50% off high and it drops another 25% off high (an absolutely ridiculous level) I’m still at 75% original Capital when I put the other 50% in where it would be 75% off of recent highs.

If it goes down from 75% off highs I think we’re back to a bartering system anyway 🤷‍♂️

Ok shoot holes in this guys.
 
#9,538
#9,538
NorthDallas40 said:
Even if it isn’t a sharp V, if it takes a full year or longer to climb back thats 100% ROI in a fairly short time. I’ve never even had an opportunity like this.

But... it could go down further too. Even if it does I keep saying it has to come back up because the time it doesn’t all of our money is useless anyway.

let’s play what if. I’m not going to get fancy I’m just looking at index funds. If I go 50% in at 50% off high and it drops another 25% off high (an absolutely ridiculous level) I’m still at 75% original Capital when I put the other 50% in where it would be 75% off of recent highs.

If it goes down from 75% off highs I think we’re back to a bartering system anyway 🤷‍♂️

Ok shoot holes in this guys.
Click to expand...

Sounds good to me. If you have a nice chunk to put 50% in there is some serious coin to be made.
 
#9,540
#9,540
I think that the worst news is priced in. It's going to take consistent, promising news to reverse the trend, but that could take a month or two (although China is seeing improvement but they've been working at it for 2-3 more months). So the US markets probably creep lower as the good news will take another month or more to start trickling in. The irrational pessimism should drag on for a while yet.
 
#9,541
#9,541
NorthDallas40 said:
You’re doing it wrong. You’re supposed to talk me out of it.
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It’s got to go back up at some point. If I were a year out from needing the money I would go back in after Trumps 15 day response is finished depending on how things looked. Remember Buffets rule...when everyone is scared, be greedy...when everyone is greedy, be scared.

I think this week at least will be another bloodbath and sit tight.

But by all means, DO NOT listen to me, lol.
 
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#9,542
#9,542
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I think that the worst news is priced in. It's going to take consistent, promising news to reverse the trend, but that could take a month or two (although China is seeing improvement but they've been working at it for 2-3 more months). So the US markets probably creep lower as the good news will take another month or more to start trickling in. The irrational pessimism should drag on for a while yet.
Click to expand...
To paraphrase I think you said “yeah your idea seems fairly reasonable”?
 
#9,543
#9,543
NorthDallas40 said:
To paraphrase I think you said “yeah your idea seems fairly reasonable”?
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Not saying the the bottom is in, but...

It's already overshot to the downside and is probably priced for more than 6 months of commerce being dead in the water. The worst case valuation is already in. Now fear of the unknown (and margin calls) will hold it here for a while. Any good news will produce 5+% up days, which will then be sold. These prices will be in play for many weeks or months short of effective treatments and good stats on new cases, deaths, and recoveries from the virus.

Long term, China needs to be punished. Political reform should be the only thing that allows them be a player again. They want to be the leading military and banker in the world. They want to be us. The free world shouldn't permit it.
 
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#9,545
#9,545
Thunder Good-Oil said:
It's already overshot to the downside and is probably priced for more than 6 months of commerce being dead in the water. The worst case valuation is already in. Now fear of the unknown (and margin calls) will hold it here for a while. Any good news will produce 5+% up days, which will then be sold. These prices will be in play for many weeks or months short of effective treatments and good stats on new cases, deaths, and recoveries from the virus.

Long term, China needs to be punished. Political reform should be the only thing that allows them be a player again. They want to be the leading military and banker in the world. They want to be us. The free world shouldn't permit it.
Click to expand...
👍
 
#9,546
#9,546
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Not saying the the bottom is in, but...

It's already overshot to the downside and is probably priced for more than 6 months of commerce being dead in the water. The worst case valuation is already in. Now fear of the unknown (and margin calls) will hold it here for a while. Any good news will produce 5+% up days, which will then be sold. These prices will be in play for many weeks or months short of effective treatments and good stats on new cases, deaths, and recoveries from the virus.

Long term, China needs to be punished. Political reform should be the only thing that allows them be a player again. They want to be the leading military and banker in the world. They want to be us. The free world shouldn't permit it.
Click to expand...

I don't see this happening. I've read multiple articles stating covid19 wasn't developed nor did it escape from a lab in Wuhan. In some of these articles, the "it comes from a bat" excuse is repeated multiple times.
 
#9,548
#9,548
ETV said:
I don't see this happening. I've read multiple articles stating covid19 wasn't developed nor did it escape from a lab in Wuhan. In some of these articles, the "it comes from a bat" excuse is repeated multiple times.
Click to expand...

No. Greed and short sighted views will prevail. CEOs (and world leaders) that can save a little money (or increase their GDP) won't sacrifice their own interests. Same thought as the dumb ****s that refused to give up their spring breaks or leave some toilet paper on store shelves. Selfishness is a bigger disease than C19.
 
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