stock market was up today...

#9,901
#9,901
Velo Vol said:
Where are we?

Market-sentiment-graph.png
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Probably between capitulation and despondency. We've certainly had a panic/capitulation moment where people puked out a lot of stock. That phase is probably over. If anything, the mood seems pretty optimistic right now which makes me bearish, although there's also another sizable camp parroting "Why is the market going up? The news is still bad!" which is a really common refrain heard at or around market bottoms. That makes me bullish. The market bottoms and starts to recover when the news is still bad and before the economy starts to recover.

I think a test of the low, or even a slight undercut of the low, would flush any remaining weak hands out. If we get some kind of data point over the next few weeks showing that perhaps the curve isn't flattening, or isn't flattening as fast as we thought, that would probably cause some kind of panicky selloff that brings us back towards the lows and really discourages people. That'd probably bring us to the despondency phase.
 
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#9,902
#9,902
05_never_again said:
I think a test of the low, or even a slight undercut of the low, would flush any remaining weak hands out.
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When you talk about there not being a "supply" (sellers) it got me to wondering about if we had complete capitulation, even though it dropped 30% in a few weeks.
 
#9,903
#9,903
Velo Vol said:
When you talk about there not being a "supply" (sellers) it got me to wondering about if we had complete capitulation, even though it dropped 30% in a few weeks.
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It probably was capitulation, but that doesn't necessarily mean the market goes straight up after that and never flirts with the low again. It means that was the single biggest moment where you had the people simply selling what they could, without regard for what exactly they were selling and what price they were selling it out. They simply wanted out and didn't really care what exact stocks (or assets in general, even) they were selling. In general, that is a great time to be a buyer of stocks, especially if you have a long-term time horizon.

If you miss the exact low, and it's a fool's errand to try and buy the exact low, the market typically gives you other "chances" to buy at or around the low. Of course that's way easier said than done because you'll have a ton of people (including your own mind) saying stuff like "Here we go again! We're going to break the low and start a new leg down!" when the low is approached again. It's so easy to say "I'm going to buy weakness" or "I'm going to buy the low if we get there again" and then so easy to talk yourself out of it, for one reason or another, when it actually happens, because oftentimes market will approach that low again on what is widely considered "bad news."
 
#9,904
#9,904
I never sold anything, but bought some more yesterday. I have a theory that ultimately logic always win, and with the models now cutting in half every 12 hours, people can only grasp for so many straws.
 
#9,905
#9,905
05_never_again said:
It probably was capitulation, but that doesn't necessarily mean the market goes straight up after that and never flirts with the low again. It means that was the single biggest moment where you had the people simply selling what they could, without regard for what exactly they were selling and what price they were selling it out. They simply wanted out and didn't really care what exact stocks (or assets in general, even) they were selling. In general, that is a great time to be a buyer of stocks, especially if you have a long-term time horizon.

If you miss the exact low, and it's a fool's errand to try and buy the exact low, the market typically gives you other "chances" to buy at or around the low. Of course that's way easier said than done because you'll have a ton of people (including your own mind) saying stuff like "Here we go again! We're going to break the low and start a new leg down!" when the low is approached again. It's so easy to say "I'm going to buy weakness" or "I'm going to buy the low if we get there again" and then so easy to talk yourself out of it, for one reason or another, when it actually happens, because oftentimes market will approach that low again on what is widely considered "bad news."
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I’m still sitting on the sidelines. It fell so damn fast that I think people are still in whiplash.

If I had 20 years to go I’d have gone all in two weeks ago even if it went down more you’d still come out ahead. Being on a four year to retirement timeline I can’t get that cavalier I’ll probably miss the true bottom but risk/reward says thats what I should do. At this point this opportunity is found money to me.

We hit my ive gotta buy this now trigger a couple of weeks ago but it quickly bounced right back up. So back to watching and waiting.
 
#9,906
#9,906
NorthDallas40 said:
I’m still sitting on the sidelines. It fell so damn fast that I think people are still in whiplash.

If I had 20 years to go I’d have gone all in two weeks ago even if it went down more you’d still come out ahead. Being on a four year to retirement timeline I can’t get that cavalier I’ll probably miss the true bottom but risk/reward says thats what I should do. At this point this opportunity is found money to me.

We hit my ive gotta buy this now trigger a couple of weeks ago but it quickly bounced right back up. So back to watching and waiting.
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Yeah, having this happen close to retirement, especially if your asset allocation was heavily weighted towards equities going into the decline, would be unsettling.
 
#9,908
#9,908
Sell.

This virus is going to be a marathon, not a sprint.

I'll start nibbling between 16-18K DJIA.
 
#9,912
#9,912
Velo Vol said:
Whee.

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That might put a cap on this bounce or a while. We might not be headed straight back down, but it wouldn't shock me if today's high is the high print for a little while. A big gap up that slowly fades throughout the day is classic topping behavior.

Really felt this morning (even yesterday) that the gap up was overdone - perhaps some last shorts throwing in the towel. There was definitely reason/justification for a bounce, but it looks like it's run its course.
 
#9,913
#9,913
MontyPython said:
Sell.

This virus is going to be a marathon, not a sprint.

I'll start nibbling between 16-18K DJIA.
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Nibbling with what? Did you inherit some money or sell everything you had in February at the market peak?
In any rate, please inform everyone about your market purchases when the DJIA reaches 16-18k
 
#9,914
#9,914
MontyPython said:
Sell.

This virus is going to be a marathon, not a sprint.

I'll start nibbling between 16-18K DJIA.
Click to expand...

I don't necessarily agree about a marathon. The testing seems to be ramping up very quickly which should get the numbers under control. The vaccine will take a while to produce and distribute, but a treatment might be emerging and with widespread testing the containment is far more manageable than when it was being spread by infected individuals for up to two weeks before being diagnosed. The data is also getting better everyday to identify the localities that are the most likely to emerge as hot spots.
 
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#9,915
#9,915
VolStrom said:
Nibbling with what? Did you inherit some money or sell everything you had in February at the market peak?
In any rate, please inform everyone about your market purchases when the DJIA reaches 16-18k
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He’s just doing his usual chicken little schtick. He can’t help it
 
#9,916
#9,916
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don't necessarily agree about a marathon. The testing seems to be ramping up very quickly which should get the numbers under control. The vaccine will take a while to produce and distribute, but a treatment might be emerging and with widespread testing the containment is far more manageable than when it was being spread by infected individuals for up to two weeks before being diagnosed. The data is also getting better everyday to identify the localities that are the most likely to emerge as hot spots.
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If the rebound really happens late this year like pretty much everybody is saying this will all be a bad dream by summer 2021 at least from a market sense. I am sure it will ripple thru specific sections of the population for quite a while longer tho. Restaurant and hospitality for example.
 
#9,918
#9,918
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don't necessarily agree about a marathon. The testing seems to be ramping up very quickly which should get the numbers under control. The vaccine will take a while to produce and distribute, but a treatment might be emerging and with widespread testing the containment is far more manageable than when it was being spread by infected individuals for up to two weeks before being diagnosed. The data is also getting better everyday to identify the localities that are the most likely to emerge as hot spots.
Click to expand...

Heh. Even if you're right, the die is cast for the economy. Decisions made by companies today reverberate for months if not years.

We're in an economic downspin come hell or high water. Buckle up buttercup.
 
#9,920
#9,920
VolStrom said:
Nibbling with what? Did you inherit some money or sell everything you had in February at the market peak?
In any rate, please inform everyone about your market purchases when the DJIA reaches 16-18k
Click to expand...

Heh. I could buy you ten times over, Junior.

And, yes, I'll let you know when I'm buying. Telling you now. 16-18K.
 
#9,922
#9,922
VolStrom said:
Nibbling with what? Did you inherit some money or sell everything you had in February at the market peak?
In any rate, please inform everyone about your market purchases when the DJIA reaches 16-18k
Click to expand...
Maybe he'll post his watchlist.
 
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