stock market was up today...

[Velo Vol]

I'll answer that. Heart attack was imminent.

Unemployment was under 4%.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Unemployment was under 4%.

What does that have to do with anything?

 

[Velo Vol]

What does that have to do with anything?

What does the unemployment rate have to do with the health of the economy? Nothing at all.

 

[utvolpj]

What does the unemployment rate have to do with the health of the economy? Nothing at all.

Actually not much since economy growth is about money. Simply having a job is not an indicator that there is disposable income

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Actually not much since economy growth is about money. Simply having a job is not an indicator that there is disposable income

And not to mention that the way they calculate unemployment today is not the same as it was in 1980.

The same is true with regards to how they calculate inflation and GDP.

 

[Velo Vol]

Actually not much since economy growth is about money. Simply having a job is not an indicator that there is disposable income

I'm not saying the 4%, alone, was evidence that the economy was great, but it's hardly a symptom of a dying economy.

 

[utvolpj]

I'm not saying the 4%, alone, was evidence that the economy was great, but it's hardly a symptom of a dying economy.

The economy was facing real trouble in the near future. Not sure there was much disagreement on that with economists

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I'm not saying the 4%, alone, was evidence that the economy was great, but it's hardly a symptom of a dying economy.

I I simply said imminent because we were a dozens years removed from the last pull back.

 

[rjd970]

The more I think about it, the more it becomes clear our economy is going the way the soviets did, it's just our ride to the collapse is a lot more fun.

 

[05_never_again]

In January 2020, would you have described the patient (US economy) as healthy? Or about to have a heart attack?

I would have described it at that time as "feeling good," gorging itself and experiencing a sugar high. Or experiencing that moment of peak buzz during a night of drinking. It's been doing that largely since the financial crisis.

Make no mistake about it - the economy was shocked by an external event this time; the genesis of the crisis was not in the financial system like in 2008-09. However, the economy would have inevitably rolled over anyway, and the resulting recession would probably have been fairly sharp. The GDP decline and jobless claim numbers wouldn't have been as eye-popping - it would have been a slower decline over a longer period of time, but the recession still would have been kind of nasty, IMO.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

So I just read a WSJ article on how AirBnB property owners or “hosts” are completely upside down during this fiasco since there is no travel or vacation business.

Basically you have a bunch of debt fueled want-to-be hoteliers. They bought properties on credit and counted on bookings to be able to make their mortgage payments.

And I’m really not having any sympathy for them from reading it. I mean what the hell should they expect. Their balance sheet is nothing but liabilities. And I see no reason there should be any money provided to bail them out.

What do y’all think?

Debt is slavery.

 

[Velo Vol]

The economy was facing real trouble in the near future. Not sure there was much disagreement on that with economists

In the long run we're all dead.

I I simply said imminent because we were a dozens years removed from the last pull back.

A recession is not a economic heart attack.

However, the economy would have inevitably rolled over anyway, and the resulting recession would probably have been fairly sharp. The GDP decline and jobless claim numbers wouldn't have been as eye-popping - it would have been a slower decline over a longer period of time, but the recession still would have been kind of nasty, IMO.

I thought we were headed to a recession in Q4 2018 but the machine kept motoring.

 

[Velo Vol]

The Fed money drops will continue until morale improves.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The AirBnB situation is reminiscent of greedy landlords that expected to cash in on the 1982 World's Fair. They kicked out typical apartment renters hoping to cash out renting rooms to tourists. They didn't plan on hotel rooms being trucked in on flatbed trucks at the last minute sprouting up at every exit along the interstates leading into Knoxville. Those hotels were slapped together in a few weeks or a month or two and totally disrupted the landlords' plans.

 

[Velo Vol]

The AirBnB situation is reminiscent of greedy landlords that expected to cash in on the 1982 World's Fair. They kicked out typical apartment renters hoping to cash out renting rooms to tourists. They didn't plan on hotel rooms being trucked in on flatbed trucks at the last minute sprouting up at every exit along the interstates leading into Knoxville. Those hotels were slapped together in a few weeks or a month or two and totally disrupted the landlords' plans.

There's a "motel" from that era on Middlebrook Pike. For weeks last year there was an old clunker sitting in front of one of the rooms. I guess they finally towed it away. LOL

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

There's a "motel" from that era on Middlebrook Pike. For weeks last year there was an old clunker sitting in front of one of the rooms. I guess they finally towed it away. LOL

The Middlebrook Inn is one of the motels that were growing like weeds leading up to the 1982 Energy Expo. Lots of them out east along I-40.

 

[Velo Vol]

The Middlebrook Inn is one of the motels that were growing like weeds leading up to the 1982 Energy Expo. Lots of them out east along I-40.

Hard to believe they outlived East Towne Mall.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Hard to believe they outlived East Towne Mall.

No Amazon Effect and lots of crack ho customers keeping up the occupancy rates.

 

[Velo Vol]

Still wrestling with this "health of the economy" question.

Hypothetical: you have $1 million (inflation adjusted) to start a generic business. Which year would you rather have started it in, and why?

1995, 2005, or 2015

 

[Velo Vol]

The Fed money drops will continue until morale improves.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Still wrestling with this "health of the economy" question.

Hypothetical: you have $1 million (inflation adjusted) to start a generic business. Which year would you rather have started it in, and why?

1995, 2005, or 2015

Knowing what we know right now?

1995.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

15,000 employees is considered small to medium sized?

 

[Velo Vol]

Knowing what we know right now?

1995.

It's a clumsy hypothetical because obviously it depends on what kind of business, but in the generic sense, why was the economy better then?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

It's a clumsy hypothetical because obviously it depends on what kind of business, but in the generic sense, why was the economy better then?

Less legislation and red tape and better demographics (more baby boomers in mid career and adding to the economy).

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Somebody explain this foolishness

Stock market news live updates: Stocks end lower, but S&P 500 has best month since 1987

Stocks fell Thursday after the Labor Department’s latest print on new weekly jobless claims showed a greater than expected 3.8 million individuals filed for initial unemployment insurance last week.

However, rallies earlier in the month pushed the S&P 500 to post its best monthly gain since 1987. The blue-chip index was up 12.68% for April. The Dow rose 11% for April, and the Nasdaq jumped 15.45%.